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Country Risk Service Belarus 1st Quarter

  • ID: 4450639
  • Country Profile
  • January 2020
  • Region: Belarus
  • 21 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk score is near the middle of the CCC band in The Economist Intelligence Unit's current ratings report. The outlook is stable. Growing export receipts and Russian or Chinese loans will help Belarus to cover large debt repayments due in 2020-21. However, Russia will insist on economic and political integration as the price of its financial assistance. Reliance on external financing and exposure to external shocks are major risks.

The currency risk score remains around the middle of the B band, and the outlook is negative. We estimate that the rubel depreciated slightly against the Russian rouble and the US dollar to an average of BRb2.09:US$1 in 2019, from BRb2.04:US$1 in 2018. The rubel will continue to depreciate moderately against both currencies in 2020-21. Foreign-exchange reserves have risen in 2019 but they still provide less than three months of import cover.

The banking risk score is in the middle of the CCC band, with a stable outlook. Recession in 2015-16 pushed up the incidence of bad loans, and lending to businesses decreased in 2016-17. The current sluggish rebound in credit growth will limit the pace of economic recovery in 2020-21. The high, but opaque, level of state-owned enterprise debt is a significant risk.
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Country Risk Service Belarus 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2020-21: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-21: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-21: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-21: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-21: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-21: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-21: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-21: Exchange rates
Rubel redenominated on July 1st 2016

Central scenario for 2020-21: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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