Country Risk Service Belarus 1st Quarter

  • ID: 4450639
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Belarus
  • 22 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk score has improved by .3 points, to 64, and remains well in the middle of the CCC rating band. Growing export receipts, lucrative energy and loan deals with Russia and a US$1.4bn Eurobond issue in 2017 will help Belarus to cover large debt repayments falling due in 2018-19. The country's dependence on external financing and exposure to external shocks remain major risks. Foreign-exchange reserve coverage of the financing requirement is low, and commitment to pay is uncertain.

The Belarusian rubel was redenominated in July 2016. After depreciating sharply in 2015-16, the rubel stabilised to an estimated average of BRb1.93:US$1 in 2017, in line with the trajectory of the Russian rouble and a recovery in Belarusian industrial exports. Total reserves have recovered, reaching almost US$7.4bn by end-October 2017, up from a low of US$4bn in January 2016. The exchange rate is vulnerable to volatility in energy and financial markets.

A lack of confidence in the currency drove a fall in local-currency deposits until April 2016. Recession in 2015-16 pushed up the incidence of bad loans, and a crash in lending to non-financial public and private firms that began in 2016 intensified in 2017. This will hold back the pace of economic recovery in 2018-19. A major banking sector risk is the high level of state-owned enterprise debt.
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Country Risk Service Belarus 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2018-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2018-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2018-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2018-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2018-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2018-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2018-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2018-19: Exchange rates
Rubel redenominated on July 1st 2016

Central scenario for 2018-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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