Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017–2022

  • ID: 4454563
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 24 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Over-the-top communication apps are, by far, the most-used communication platform worldwide; the volume of IP messaging traffic was more than eight times the size of SMS traffic in 2016.""Over-the-top communication apps are, by far, the most-used communication platform worldwide; the volume of IP messaging traffic was more than eight times the size of SMS traffic in 2016."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services worldwide market. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • detailed forecasts for 62 individual countries and eight regions.

Regions

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Key metrics

Non-operator/OTT services

  • Voice and messaging
  • Active user by device type
  • Outgoing traffic by device type

Operator traditional services

  • Handsets
  • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
  • Outgoing traffic

Operator IP-based services

Active users by service type:

  •     VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging

Outgoing traffic by service type

  •     VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging

Retail revenue

  •     voice and messaging
  •     average spend per user
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Chapter Number:

6.Worldwide trends
7.Worldwide: IP messaging traffic accounted for more than eight times the volume of SMS traffic in 2016
8.Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by 75% of the global population by 2022
9.Worldwide: Facebook is adopting a similar platform proposition to the one pioneered in Asian countries by LINE and WeChat
10.Worldwide: The smartphone will continue to be the dominant communication device
11.Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
12.Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services -nearly 3.6 billion subscribers are expected by 2022
13.Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
14.Worldwide: Google's involvement has boosted Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
15.Western Europe
16.Western Europe: SMS is in steep decline in the region, with WhatsApp as the main beneficiary
17.Western Europe: Operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be severely challenged by alternatives
18.Central and Eastern Europe
19.Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
20.Central and Eastern Europe: VoIP has yet to gain significant traction
21.Middle East and North Africa
22.Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate messaging and there is little appetite for operators to compete
23.Middle East and North Africa: Legacy voice will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge
24.Sub-Saharan Africa
25.Sub-Saharan Africa: Social and messaging services will continue to be an important driver of growth for operators
26.Sub-Saharan Africa: Operators will continue to benefit from strong growth in mobile voice
27.Emerging Asia-Pacific
28.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Continued strong growth is expected in the messaging market, attracting both local and global players
29.Emerging Asia-Pacific: An extra one billion mobile users will be the principal driver of traffic growth over the forecast period
30.Developed Asia-Pacific
31.Developed Asia-Pacific: Many operators will no longer compete for messaging and OTTs will dominate the market
32.Developed Asia-Pacific: Operators are hoping that innovation in voice will limit migration to strong OTT players
33.North America
34.North America: OTT messaging is further behind than in other regions, but it will slowly erode the dominance of SMS traffic
35.North America: Operator investment in new technologies will shift most voice traffic to operator IP by 2019
36.Latin America
37.Latin America: SMS traffic has peaked in some countries, as traffic has migrated to OTT in the larger markets
38.Latin America: traditional voice services are expected to remain dominant for the entire forecast period
39.Forecast methodology and assumptions
40.Forecast outputs and definitions
41.Forecast methodology
42.About the authors

List of figures

Figure 1: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2011-2016
Figure 2: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2011-2022
Figure 3: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2011-2022
Figure 4: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2011-2022
Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2016-
Figure 6: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2016-2022
Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2016-2022
Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015-2022
Figure 9: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2011-2022
Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2011-2022
Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2011-2022
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2022
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2022
Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2022
Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2022
Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2022
Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2022
Figure 18: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
Figure 20: Messaging traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2011-2022
Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2011-2022
Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2011-2022
Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2011-2022
Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report

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