The UK Annual PVC Window Door & Conservatory Industry Market & Forecasts to 2020

  • ID: 4454862
  • Report
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 110 Pages
  • D&G Consulting
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Is This a Good Time to Invest in a Conservatory or Orangery, Especially with Interest Rates on Borrowing at a Historically Low Level?

This edition substantially follows the format of previous years with the past year set out in detail from PVC profile throughput through to estimated volumes of finished windows, doors and conservatories. Following on from the review of the past year are construction industry and economic forecasts that provide the basis for the three year forecasts for profile and finished windows, doors and conservatories in total and by sector.

All the information on window profile, window systems companies, window, door and conservatory volumes, market shares and values remain as part of this report.

All our forecasts are detailed and use economic and other forecast information from reliable sources to put our report for the industry together. Not only does the report contain detailed forecast volumes and values for the main product lines but we go deeper into the five main market sectors:

  • Private housing RMI (Repair Maintenance and Improvement
  • Social (public) housing RMI.
  • Private house building.
  • Social House building.
  • Commercial applications (schools, hospitals, hotels, public buildings etc.)

This provides the industry with an estimate of the volume and value by sector forward to 2020. It shows how the product and sector landscape is forecast to change as the UK economy fights its way through the Brexit implications.

Discussions with companies at all levels - raw materials, additives, machinery suppliers, extrusion companies, importers and window and door makers - makes it clear that an up to date understanding of the market and its behaviour, helps them forecast and prepare for change.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Part 1: Introduction and Executive Summary

1. Introduction & Executive Summary
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Details of 2016 Edition
1.3 Research Method

2. Executive Summary

Part 2: Window Profile

3. UK PVC Window Profile Production
3.1 Volume - Total UK PVC Compound Throughput
3.2 UK Window Systems Companies - Production & Throughput

4. Industry Stock Levels Imports & Exports
4.1 Industry Stock Levels
4.2 Imports of Profile
4.3 Exports of Profile
4.4 Imports and Exports of Windows & Doors

5. Window Systems Companies Market Shares

6. Profile Prices

7. Summary Balance of UK Supply & Demand

Part 3: Window Door & Conservatory Units

8. Window & Conservatory Volumes
8.1 Volume by Product Line - tonnes
8.2 Window Volumes - units
8.3 Conservatory Units

Part 4: Door Units: PVC Panel, French, Sliding Patio, Bifold & Composite Doors

9. Door Units
9.1 Volumes by Product Line - Tonnes
9.2 Volume by Product Line - Units
9.3 Composite Entrance Doors
9.4 PVC Doors
9.5 PVC French Doors
9.6 PVC Sliding Patio Doors
9.7 PVC Bifold Doors

Part 5: Construction & Economic Forecasts

10. Construction Forecasts
10.1 Construction Industry Outlook
10.2 House Building
10.3 Non Residential Construction
10.4 Housing Repair Maintenance & Improvement (RMI)

11. Economic Outlook

Part 6: Window, Door & Conservatory Forecasts to

12. Window, Door and Conservatory Forecasts
12.1 Volume Forecasts - Introduction
12.2 Volume Forecasts - Conservatories
12.3 Volume Forecasts - Windows
12.4 Volume Forecasts - PVC Entrance Doors
12.5 Volume Forecasts - Composite Entrance Doors
12.6 Volume Forecasts - Sliding Patio Doors
12.7 Volume Forecasts - Bifold Doors
12.8 Volume Forecasts - French Doors
12.9 Volume Forecast - Total PVC Profile Volume

Part 7: Market Size & Values

13. Market Size & Values
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Market Size - Units
13.3 Market Value of Profile - Systems Companies
13.4 Market Value - Fabricators
13.5 Total Installed Value

Part 8: Sector Forecasts

14. Market Size & Values
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Window Units
14.3 PVC Doors
14.4 Composite Doors
14.5 Sliding Patio Doors
14.6 Bifold Doors
14.7 French Doors
14.8 Conservatories
14.9 Market Value Summary

Part 9: Industry Structure & Players

15. Industry Structure, and Players
15.1 Industry Structure
15.2 UK Window Systems Companies Current & Past
15.3 Importers of Profile Systems
 
List of Tables:
EX1 Values at Installer, Fabricator & Systems Company Level for 2016 and 2020
1 Summary UK PVC Compound Throughput
2 UK Systems Companies Throughput Growth
3 UK Window Profile Output - Stocks and Profile Deliveries.
4 Imports of PVC Window & Door Profiles
5 UK Window Profile Exports
6 UK Imports & Exports of Completed Windows and Doors
7 Estimated Market Share by Company
8 Supply and Demand Market Prices
9 Supply & Demand Market Model
10 Estimated Volume of Windows & Conservatories (tonnes)
11 Estimated Volume of Windows & Conservatories (units)
12 Estimated Volume of Conservatories
13 Estimated Volume of Door Profile by Product Line
14 Estimated Volume of Doors by Product Line
15 Composite Door Volumes
26 Estimated Volume of PVC Doors
27 French Door Volumes
28 Sliding Patio Door Volumes
19 Bifold Door Volumes
20 Housing Construction Output Value
21 Forecasts for Housing Construction
22 Non Residential, Industrial and Commercial Construction Output
23 Housing Repair Maintenance and Improvement
24 Economic Indicators
25 Annual Conservatory Volumes
26 Annual Volumes of Windows
27 Annual Volumes of PVC Doors
28 Annual Volumes of Composite Doors
29 Annual Sliding Patio Door Volumes
30 Annual Volumes of PVC Bifold Doors
31 Annual French Door Volumes
32 Total PVC Tonnage for Window Profile
33 Volumes of Windows and Doors
34 Conservatory Volumes
35 System Company Value of PVC Window Profile
36 Fabricator Value of PVC Windows, Doors, Conservatories
37 Installed Value of Windows, Doors and Conservatories
38 Sector Volumes and Values - Windows -
39 Sector Volumes and Values - PVC Doors
40 Sector Volumes and Values - Composite Doors
41 Sector Volumes and Values - Sliding Patio Doors
42 Sector Volumes and Values - Bifold Doors
43 Sector Volumes and Values - French Doors
44 Sector Volumes - Conservatories

List of Charts:
ES1 Annual Volume of PVC Window Profile Produced in the UK
ES2 Volume of PVC Profile by Systems Company
ES3 Forecast PVC Window Profile Consumption in UK
ES4 Forecast Window & Door Volumes
ES5 Window Volumes by Source
ES6 Door Volumes by Product Line
ES7 Market Value for Window Profile
ES8 Window Market Values by Source - Fabricators
ES9 Window Market Values by Source - Installers
1 PVC Compound Throughput
2 UK Systems Companies Share of UK Volume Throughput
3 Total Stocks
4 Average Weeks of Industry Profile Stocks
5 Comparison Import and Export Values for Windows & Doors
6 Estimated UK Market Share by Company
7 Average Price of White Profile
8 Window Profile Prices Per Tonne
9 UK Demand year on year Change
10 Window Profile Market Demand
11 Window Profile Market Value
12 Estimated % Volume by Product Line
13 Estimated Volume of Conservatories
14 Estimated Volume of Profile by Product Line
15 Comparison Volumes of Doors by Product Line
16 Estimated % Volume by Product Line
17 Annual Volumes of Composite Doors
18 Composite Door End User Market Sectors
19 Composite Door End User Market Sector
20 PVC Door Volumes
21 French Door Volumes by Market Sector
22 Sliding Patio Door Volumes by Market Sector
323 Comparison Sliding Patio & Bifold Door Volumes
24 Comparison Private & Public Housing Construction Output Value
25 Housing Construction - 000’s Dwellings
26 Comparison - Non-Residential, Industrial & Commercial Construction
27 Housing Repair Maintenance & Improvement
28 Key Economic Indicators
29 Annual Conservatory Volumes
30 Comparison UK Housing Stock with Conservatory Installations
31 First Time Replacement Windows
32 Annual Volumes of Windows by Source
33 Annual Volumes of PVC Doors by Source
34 Composite Door End User Sector
35 Annual Volumes of French Doors by Sector
36 Annual PVC Window Profile Volume
37 Volumes of Windows & Doors
38 Percentage Volumes of Windows & Doors
39 Systems Company Value of Window Profile
40 Systems Company Percentage Value of Window Profile
41 Fabricator Value of Windows Doors and Conservatories
42 Fabricator Percentage Value by Product Line
43 Installed Value of PVC Windows Doors & Conservatories
44 Installed Values by Product Line
45 Fabricator Window Values by Sector
46 Fabricator Window Values by Sector
47 Fabricator PVC Door Volumes by Sector
48 Fabricator PVC Door Volumes by Sector
39 Composite Door Values by Sector
50 Composite Door Values by Sector
51 Fabricator PVC Sliding Patio Door Values
52 Fabricator PVC Sliding Patio Door Values
53 Fabricator PVC French Door Values by Sector
54 Fabricator PVC French Door Values by Sector
55 Installer Values by Product Line
56 Installer values by Sector
57 Fabricator Values by Product Line
58 Fabricator Values by Sector
59 Profile Values by Product Line
60 Profile Values by Sector

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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This 2017 Annual PVC Window, Door and Conservatory Industry Report and Forecast, published a year after the UK referendum that resulted in the decision to leave the EU and a few months after Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (the mechanism to start the process to terminate membership of the EU) was triggered by the UK government . Additionally the UK was subjected to a snap general election that unexpectedly resulted in a hung parliament.

It is fair to say the UK consumer by-and-large has ignored the immediate effects of the two events and continued to drive strong household expenditure. This was in the face of weaker rises in investment and government expenditure. This has resulted in better than expected growth in the window and door industries. A year ago on the back of construction and economic forecasts issued - soon after the referendum that resulted in the Brexit decision - growth in window profile demand was only expected to 0.6% in 2016. In the end growth in demand turned out to be 1.3%.

However more challenging times lie ahead for consumers, and it is consumer spending that the window and door industry largely depends upon for home improvement. Rising inflation is set to erode real disposable income leading to household spending retrenchment. Even the EY Item Club in their summer economic forecast say “the immediate outlook has darkened”. On the plus side the forecasters are bullish on house building over the forecast period in the light of the current drive to increase supply.

Experian in their Summer Construction Forecast are projecting little growth over the forecast period. New housing construction growing between 3% and 5% per annum performing much better than RMI (repair, maintenance and improvement) where no growth is expected. There is no reason to believe the window and door industry will buck the trend of low growth. Our forecast for growth in demand is therefore essentially flat over the forecast period.

Immediately post the EU referendum there was downward pressure on sterling which has persisted. Sterling weakened against the US Dollar, Euro and other currencies that are important to the window and door industry due to components and raw materials being imported. This has result in many important components including hardware, polymer, profile and door slabs increasing in cost as forward purchases of currency runs out. UK is not a major exporter of profile or finished windows and doors so the export advantage at this time of a weak sterling is minimal.

The window and door industry is not insulated from the effects of the wider economy. The ITEM Club have forecast that consumer spending will go into reverse and fixed investment will also decline in 2017 - this despite interest rates at or close to 0%. However, as the headwinds facing the consumer pick up again - average earnings are expected to increase by 3.4% in 2017 but prices are forecast to rise by 2.5%. The result of which is to put the brakes on the wider construction industry and in turn the UK window and door industry.

However, post the Brexit decision the slower economic growth over the forecast period will inevitably affect construction activity particularly on the private side, with demand now projected for the next three years to be essentially flat. These growth projections are so small in percentage terms that any hic-up with the value of sterling and/or acrimonious and drawn out Brexit negotiations could cause the industry to go into reverse.

The less buoyant economic outlook is likely to impact private housing Improvement (RMI) activity and activity in the sector could now largely stagnate over the forecast period. This is not good news for the window and door industry where much of the activity is dependent upon housing improvement - both private and public.

On the plus side, the share of the total market that foiled windows takes has increased as too is the range of colours. Where once there were five or six traditional wood-grain finishes there are now twenty or more foiled finishes - including pastel and bold colours.

After enduring a tough time over the past few years conservatory volumes that were starting to edge forward have now been knocked back as consumers hold back on spending on big ticket items. Will businesses such as restaurants and hotels find this a good time to invest in a conservatory or orangery especially with interest rates on borrowing at a historically low level? Or will they put on hold plans to expand at a time that consumers have to tighten their belts?

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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The methodology is available for download below.
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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