Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 Based on 2Q 2017 Data - Product Image

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 Based on 2Q 2017 Data

  • ID: 4457608
  • Report
  • Region: America, America (exc North), Latin America
  • 41 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Retail Revenue Growth Will Continue In Latin America during the Forecast Period, Driven By an Increase in Fixed and Mobile Data Revenue

A better economic outlook for the region will not directly translate into better revenue for telecoms due to persisting political and financial uncertainty, and also due to affordability limitations in most of the countries in Latin America (LATAM). Mobile handset data revenue will continue to be a key driver of growth, and by 2022 it will account for well above half of the total telecoms revenue.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Voice Traffic

Fixed and mobile

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, 3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

Service, 3 retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

ARPU

Mobile

SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

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Chapter No.
8. Executive summary
9. Revenue in Latin America will grow during the forecast period driven by data demand
10. Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive revenue growth in Latin America
11. Geographical coverage: The share of NGA will be lowest in Mexico, while the share of 4G connections will lag behind in Colombia and Peru
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in Latin America
13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators.
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Market context: The LATAM region will experience economic recovery but its effect on the telecoms sector will be limited
16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
17. Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
18. Market overview: The total revenue increase will continue, driven mostly by mobile handset and fixed broadband revenue growth
19. Mobile: Extensive data usage will result in a short-term ARPU increase but competition will limit its future growth
20. Mobile: Declining mobile connection prices have reduced the need for multiple-SIM ownership
21. Mobile: Telecoms revenue will continue to grow despite pressure from competition and increasing market saturation
22. Fixed: Cable modems will account for more than a third of fixed broadband connections in LATAM
23. Fixed: Broadband penetration growth will slow down towards the end of the forecast period due to limited service affordability
24. Fixed: VDSL and fibre growth will be substantial but cable operations' position on the FBB market will remain strong
25. Business services: Fixed and mobile dedicated business solutions will remain a vital revenue stream, but new services will drive revenue growth
26. IoT: The growth in demand for IoT connectivity will be significant, but related revenue growth will remain limited
27. Individual country forecasts
28. Argentina: The pace of service revenue growth will slow down in both mobile and fixed segments after 2020
29. Argentina: Mobile ARPU and FBB ASPU will continue to increase, but more slowly, as the inflation effect on revenue dwindles
30. Argentina: Mobile data usage will drive mobile revenue growth, and the fixed broadband sector will continue to expand
31. Argentina: Forecast changes
32. Brazil: Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly due to the decrease in fixed service revenue
33. Brazil: The strong decline in fixed voice ASPU will not be offset by the increasing fixed broadband revenue
34. Brazil: The biggest economy in the region is expected to expand further, but total telecoms revenue will not follow
35. Brazil: Forecast changes
36. Chile: The market will grow in both fixed and mobile segments
37. Chile: Prepaid to contract migration will continue and mobile ARPU will grow
38. Chile: The country will lead fixed broadband penetration in LATAM by 2022
39. Chile: Forecast changes
40. Colombia: After a short period of decline, the telecoms service revenue will grow again
41. Colombia: The number of cable modem and fibre broadband connections will increase, but fixed revenue growth will be limited
42. Colombia: A slower return to revenue growth will partly be caused by new fiscal reforms and a slower recovery in the energy sector
43. Colombia: Forecast changes
44. Mexico: The mobile user base will continue to grow throughout the forecast period, and the total revenue will return to growth
45. Mexico: The share of contract users will remain low despite a strong increase in LTE penetration
46. Mexico: The revenue growth will be driven by an increasing subscriber base in the fixed and mobile segments
47. Mexico: Forecast changes
48. Peru: Market growth will be driven by mobile handset revenue and an increasing number of connections
49. Peru: A strong 4G technology take-up and a growing number of mobile subscribers will help to stop the ARPU decline
50. Peru: Mobile revenue growth will continue at a slower pace due to intense competition in the data segment
51. Peru: Forecast changes
52. Methodology
53. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
54. Examples of forecast input drivers
55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
56. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
57. About the authors

List of figures [1]

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Latin America, 2016-2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure challenges in Latin America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Latin America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2012-2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2012-2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2012-2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 24: Total IoT value Chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2012-2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2013-2022
Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2012-2022
Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2012-2022

List of figures [2]

Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2012-2022
Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2012-2022
Figure 30: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2012-2022
Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPI, Argentina (ARS per month), 2012-2022
Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2012-2022
Figure 34: Total fixed and mobile telecom service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2012-2022
Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2012-2022
Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2012-2022
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil 2012-2022
Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2012-2022
Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2012-2022
Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2012-2022
Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2012-2022
Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2012-2022
Figure 44: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2012-2022
Figure 45: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2012-2022
Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2012-2022
Figure 47: Fixed connections by type, Chile, (million), 2012-2022
Figure 48: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2012-2022
Figure 49: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2012-2022
Figure 50: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 51: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2012-2022
Figure 52: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2012-2022
Figure 53: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2012-2022
Figure 54: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2012-2022

List of figures [3]

Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2012-2022
Figure 56: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2012-2022
Figure 57: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2012-2022
Figure 58: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2012-2022
Figure 59: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 60: Broadband connections by technology
Figure 61: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2012-2022
Figure 62: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2012-2022
Figure 63: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2012-2022
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2012-2022
Figure 65: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2012-2022
Figure 66: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2012-2022
Figure 67: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2012-2022
Figure 68: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 69: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2012-2022
Figure 70: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2012-2022
Figure 71: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2012-2022
Figure 72: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2012-2022
Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2012-2022
Figure 74: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2012-2022
Figure 75: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2012-2022
Figure 76: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2012-2022
Figure 77: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2012-2022
Figure 78: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2012-2022
Figure 79: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2012-2022
Figure 80a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 80b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru
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