Drug analysis: Allergan - Product Image

Drug analysis: Allergan

  • ID: 4462190
  • Drug Pipelines
  • 58 pages
  • Datamonitor Healthcare
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Updated analysis and forecasts based on Q3 2017 company-reported sales.

PharmaVitae explores Allergan’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2016-26.

Snapshot
  • Overview - Allergan will finish 2017 positively with pharmaceutical revenues of $15.7bn, up 8% from FY2016, although generic pressures loom in 2018.
  • Mid-term outlook - Botox and the successful launch of Vraylar are driving Allergan’s pharmaceutical revenue growth, together adding over $2.4bn in sales out to 2021.
  • Long-term outlook - Topline revenue will climb to reach around $20bn by 2025, driven by the growth of Botox, as well as the CNS and gastroenterology portfolios.
  • Pipeline - Allergan has focused its resources on six “star” R&D programs that, if successful, will drive long-term growth.
  • Events - A Refuse to File letter has been issued for Vraylar for the treatment of PNS, as Esmya is filed for approval for use in uterine fibroids.
Highlights
  • Q3 2017: Impressive growth of Botox and recently launched products will drive Allergan’s revenues in the short term, as generic pressures loom in 2018.
  • Allergan has divested its generics and Anda businesses to its shift focus to branded pharmaceuticals.
  • Botox will provide sustained growth across both therapeutic and cosmetic indications.
  • Allergan’s CNS portfolio will expand due to the growth of new drugs to treat neurological disorders.
  • Allergan’s genitourinary portfolio will grow by $181m out to 2026, carried by sales of the oral contraception franchise Lo Loestrin Fe and the launch of pipeline candidate Esmya.
  • During 2016-26, the gastroenterology portfolio will grow at a 10.2% CAGR, driven by best-in-class Linzess and Viberzi in IBS.
Model updates
  • Kybella sales downgraded.
  • Vraylar supplementary approval treating PNS delayed.
  • Restasis generic competition brought forward to Q4 2018.
  • Revised Rhofade sales.
Analysis structure

Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Allergan’s portfolio out to 2026 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.

Company context
  • How is Allergan strategically poised out to 2026?
  • What are Allergan’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
  • What are Allergan’s key catalysts during the current year?
Facts and figures
  • What is Allergan’s forecasted sales performance out to 2026?
  • What is the revenue trajectory of Allergan’s current top 10 products out to 2026?
  • Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
  • What are the portfolio weightings of Allergan based on the lifecycle of its products?
Key therapy areas
  • Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
  • What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Allergan’s important therapeutic markets?
  • How is Allergan adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds?
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Q2 2017 REVIEW
Increased R&D investment
Pipeline update
Recent launches
Growth outlook
Bold intellectual property protection

Q3 2017 REVIEW
Allergan reports solid quarter as generic pressures loom in 2018

COMPANY CONTEXT
Acquisition trail
Growth Pharma
Pfizer terminated plans for Allergan combination
Allergan’s transformation to branded growth pharma
2017 outlook: acquisitions and R&D spending
Allergan’s SWOT analysis
Allergan’s key events and catalysts

FACTS AND FIGURES
Allergan’s prescription pharma sales outlook
Allergan’s therapy area dynamics
Allergan’s regional pharma sales outlook
Allergan’s top 10 products over 2016-26
Allergan’s growth drivers and resistors
Allergan’s launch/core/expiry analysis
Allergan’s financial outlook
Allergan’s M&A history

THERAPY AREA ANALYSIS
Other
Botox will provide sustained growth across both therapeutic and cosmetic indications
Additional therapeutic indications are not included in the forecast
Central nervous system
Genitourinary
Gastroenterology

BIBLIOGRAPHY

List of Figures
Figure 1: Allergan’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2013-26
Figure 2: Allergan’s therapy area dynamics, 2016-26
Figure 3: Allergan’s top 10 product sales ($m), 2016-26
Figure 4: Allergan’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2016-26
Figure 5: Allergan’s operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2014-22

List of Tables
Table 1: Allergan’s loss of exclusivity product portfolio
Table 2: Allergan’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2016-26
Table 3: Allergan’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2016-26
Table 4: Allergan’s key products, 2016-26
Table 5: Allergan’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2016-26
Table 6: Allergan’s financial performance, 2016-22
Table 7: Allergan’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2006-17
Table 8: Allergan’s other portfolio ($m), 2016-26
Table 9: Utilization of Botox in three core areas
Table 10: Allergan’s central nervous system portfolio ($m), 2016-26
Table 11: Allergan’s genitourinary portfolio ($m), 2016-26
Table 12: Allergan’s gastroenterology portfolio ($m), 2016-26
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