UK Grocery 2018

  • ID: 4473135
  • Report
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 86 pages
  • ResearchFarm Ltd
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In a nutshell: consumer spending is under enormous pressure. Prices are rising, wage growth is flat and interest rates are on the up. At the same time, retailers face increasing cost pressures from online, rate rises, minimum wage rises and input cost inflation.

Aldi and Lidl’s successful run in the UK is continuing unabated. Together they now account for around 12% of the market according to Kantar. While the big four are losing share with Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons only growing in a lacklustre fashion or with declining lfls, Aldi UK broke through the £10bn barrier in sales for the first time in 2017. And a stop to this growth is not in sight.

The structure of the market is changing, with both Tesco and Sainsbury’s buying into wholesale (Booker) and non food (Argos) respectively. (To us it looks like there is a distinct Brexit shadow hanging over this, a Tesco retreat from overseas to concentrate on the UK and gain better access to the supply chain as well as tapping a new domestic market) Morrisons is the only vertically integrated grocer among the big four and further pushing its agricultural business. The only one of the big four not reacting is Asda.

Looking ahead, the two discounters could more than double their market share from a combined figure of 12% to as much as a quarter of the market over the next 3-5 years.

If it comes to a no deal Brexit then the damage to the sector would be immense. The big 4, Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda and Morrisons would suffer for years to come. And we are saying this without even taking into account their respective challenges and opportunities, by just pointing to the considerable darkening of their horizons in the domestic market.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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GDP & Population, EU 28
GDP: EU28 2014, 2015, 2016 in €, ranked by size
GDP & Population: analysis and explanation
GDP: EU28 2016 in €, ranked by size, Germany - Finland
GDP: EU28 2016 in €, ranked by size, Portugal - Malta
Population: EU28 2017, ranked by size
GDP: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Luxembourg - Spain
GDP: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Malta - Bulgaria
EU28 Retail, On a rebound
Retail: EU28 2014, 2015, 2016, in €, ranked by size
Retail: EU28 2016, in €, ranked by size, France - Finland
Retail: EU28 2016 in €, ranked by size, Greece - Malta
Retail sizes: analysis and explanation
Retail: % share of GDP, EU28 2016, ranked by size
Retail: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Luxembourg - Cyprus
Retail: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Spain - Romania
Grocery Retail, Defensive sector in transformation
Grocery Retail: EU28 2015, 2016, 2017, in €, ranked by size
Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, ranked by size, France - Denmark
Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, ranked by size, Finland - Malta
Grocery Retail sizes: analysis and explanation
Grocery Retail: % share of Retail, EU28 2016, ranked by size
Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Sweden - Estonia
Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Greece - Romania
EU28 Retail, Growth
Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, in €bn
Grocery Retail: EU28 2013 - 2017, in y-o-y %
Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, 5 year growth rate in %, ranked
Grocery Retail Growth: analysis and explanation
Country profiles: UK - from innovator to laggard thanks to Brexit?
Executive summary: Sector in thrall to Brexit uncertainty, discounters, Amazon
Market shares and profiles, the leading players
UK Grocery Retail: shares, in %, ranked by size, Tesco - Iceland
UK: Tesco recovery, cutting subsidiaries, countries and jobs
UK: Tesco’s Booker merger/acquisition
UK: Tesco Booker, supplier opportunity, synergies, store in store concept
UK: online grocery opportunity with Booker, still much to do for Tesco
UK: Tesco’s vegan range, store pictures
UK: Sainsbury’s - is the Argos acquisition turning sour?
UK: Sainsbury’s, job cuts, the failed Nisa tie up
UK: Sainsbury’s Nine Elm’s store pictures
UK: Asda new boss, Walmart dividend, finally turned a corner?
UK: the former Netto stores are still struggling, the runaway success of George
UK: Asda job cuts
UK: Asda click & collect pick up tower, George concession pictures
UK: Morrisons rebounding, partnering with Ocado and Amazon
UK: Morrisons - vertical integration as template to emulate for big 4, job cuts
UK: Morrisons store pictures, Alexa skill
Discounters - Aldi and Lidl transforming UK grocery retail
UK: Aldi and Lidl revolutionising UK grocery, Aldi’s declining profits
UK: … as Aldi sales accelerate, Aldi store opening plans
UK: Aldi Christmas record, breaking the £10bn in sales barrier
UK: Lidl fastest growing grocer for Christmas in UK, store expansion plans
UK: why Tesco’s discounter attempt will simply not work
UK: cannibalisation, Capex, buyer set up, product quality, store footprints
UK: multichannel (incl discounter) vs focused discount operation, poor track record
UK: too expensive to launch and dubious results
UK: Aldi UK, Lidl UK store pictures, PL specially selected, deluxe pictures
Online, UK is the leading EU online grocery market
UK: the country of home delivery, Tesco champion, Ocado leapfrogging the rankings
UK: Asda’s online basket size, Waitrose decline, Morrisons and Amazon
Brexit impact, What would happen to food & grocery under a no deal scenario?
Food & Grocery: drivers of food price inflation
Food & Grocery: our estimates for food price inflation
Food & Grocery: no deal impact on price, up to a third more for everyday food
Food & Grocery: no deal impact on availability
Food & Grocery: animal products and BIPs
Outlook, Brexit - the worst case scenario
Food & Grocery: growth 2010 - 16, forecast, inflation, volume for 2017-9
Food & Grocery: in £bn 2010 - 19f, skyrocketing inflation, in no deal scenario
Food & Grocery: relative winners, hard discounters, vertically integrated Morrisons
Food & Grocery: panic buying, collapse of Irish trade, devastation of UK farming

Sources
Chart 1 GDP: EU28 2014, 2015, 2016 in €, ranked by size
Chart 2 GDP: EU28 2016 in €, ranked by size, Germany - Finland
Chart 3 GDP: EU28 2016 in €, ranked by size, Portugal - Malta
Chart 4 Population: EU28 2017, ranked by size
Chart 5 GDP: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Luxembourg - Spain
Chart 6 GDP: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Malta - Bulgaria
Chart 7 Retail: EU28 2014, 2015, 2016, in €, ranked by size
Chart 8 Retail: EU28 2016, in €, ranked by size, France - Finland
Chart 9 Retail: EU28 2016 in €, ranked by size, Greece - Malta
Chart 10 Retail: % share of GDP, EU28 2016, ranked by size
Chart 11 Retail: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Luxembourg - Cyprus
Chart 12 Retail: EU28 2016, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Spain - Romania
Chart 13 Grocery Retail: EU28 2015, 2016, 2017, in €, ranked by size
Chart 14 Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, ranked by size, France - Denmark
Chart 15 Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, ranked by size, Finland - Malta
Chart 16 Grocery Retail: % share of Retail, EU28 2016, ranked by size
Chart 17 Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Sweden - Estonia
Chart 18 Grocery Retail: EU28 2017, in €, per capita, ranked by size, Greece - Romania
Chart 19 Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, 5 year growth rate in %, ranked
Chart 20 UK Grocery Retail: shares, in %, ranked by size, Tesco - Iceland
Chart 21 Food & Grocery: growth 2010 - 16, forecast, inflation, volume for 2017-9
Chart 22 Food & Grocery: in £bn 2010 - 19f, skyrocketing inflation, in no deal scenario
Table 1: Grocery Retail: EU28 2012 - 2017, in €bn
Table 2: Grocery Retail: EU28 2013 - 2017, in y-o-y %
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