This is the Premium version of the Angola Digital Report, which includes more than 50 supporting charts and data points in Excel format.
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In the midst of an acute economic crisis, Angola has decided to open up its telecoms market in a bid to attract foreign capital. Our State of Digital report takes a look at telecoms and digital services opportunity in the Angolan market, sizing up the upsides and risks in the country's digital infrastructure, consumer and enterprise segments.
We provide an in-depth assessment of the proposed fourth mobile licence and the privatization of Angola Telecom. Even by African standards, Angola remains as tough a market as they come. We assess whether, ultimately, Africa’s last Eldorado isn’t merely another investor mirage.
State of Digital: Angola provides an in-depth assessment of the opportunities arising from Angola’s decision to award a fourth mobile licence and privatize state-owned Angola Telecom. We analyze the current state of key segments of the Angolan ICT market - mobile, B2B and wholesale.
We assess addressable demand and competitive dynamics and lay out our projections for each segment. We make the case (or lack thereof) and outline the critical risks we see for these opportunities, from OpEx and CapEx requirements to regulatory frailty, and the crucial challenge posed by Angola’s web of interlocked stakeholder relationships.
The insights derived from the research on the Angolan market are distilled in this report, covering critical key questions and points, including:
- Angola’s economic crisis and the advent of a new president are providing the momentum for action that the country’s policymakers and stakeholders have long resisted.
- The potential is solid. This the third largest economy, and the fourth largest telecoms market in sub-Saharan Africa in revenue terms. The B2B segment is one of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, largely due to the presence of a relatively dynamic financial sector, and an active ecosystem of foreign companies in the mining and oil and gas sectors.
- While not immune from the challenges that have afflicted the broader ICT sector, the B2B segment has performed better than the broader market;
- There is upside: mobile penetration is low, half of Angola’s mobile addressable market is underserved. The very nature of the Angolan mobile market creates substantial room for differentiation for a new entrant.
- For the fourth licence, the subscriber case is strong, as is the revenue case. We find the OpEx and CapEx cases to be extremely challenging.
- Angola Telecom (AT) is a troubled business. But we see solid underlying value in its unique pool of assets; in this case, the parts look better than the whole.
- A critical characteristic of the Angolan ICT market is its remarkable interlocking of interests. These will be difficult to break.
- This matters, because success in the Angolan market, in our view, would require a challenging of the existing market structure, along with tangible regulatory action to foster true competition.
- The opening of Angola’s telecoms market is welcome - but still doesn’t go far enough for the opportunity to be truly compelling.
Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: AFRICA’S LAST DIGITAL ELDORADO
