China Smartphone Market Forecasts 2018-2022

  • ID: 4481613
  • Report
  • Region: China
  • 43 Pages
  • Coda Research Consultancy
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Xiaomi Will See the Largest Rise in Shipments Due in Part to Changes in Its Business Model, and Will Take a 22% Market Share at the End of the Forecast Period

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Apple (China)
  • Gionee
  • Huawei
  • LeEco
  • Meizu
  • OPPO
  • MORE

This report provides investors, analysts, OEMs, researchers, business executives and others with analyses and forecasts for the smartphone market, including smartphone shipments, subscriptions, revenues, ARPUs and average selling prices in China up to 2022.

Forecasts include:

  • Smartphone shipments by brand 2015-2022
  • Revenues from smartphone shipments and average selling prices 2015-2022
  • Mobile subscriptions by connection type (2G/3G, 4G and 5G) 2013-2022
  • Mobile subscriptions by operator 2013-2022
  • Mobile subscriptions by operator by connection type (2G/3G, 4G and 5G) 2013-2022
  • Revenues and ARPU for each of the operators from mobile phone subscribers 2015-2022

The report is separated into four sections:

  • Brand overview: Overview of each of the main smartphone brands in China, looking at historical performance, company structures and key executives.
  • Drivers: Drivers to the smartphone market in China and a focus on drivers to 5G rollout, smartphones and subscriptions.
  • Smartphones shipments: Historical data and forecasts to 2022: smartphone shipments by brand, and average selling prices, and revenues. Also, brand performance and expectations for products and market performance by brand for 2018 and into 2019.
  • Mobile subscriptions: Historical data and forecasts to 2022: mobile subscriptions separated out by operator and connection type (2G/3G, 4G and 5G), and operator revenues and ARPU from mobile subscribers.

Smartphone Shipments

With China reaching saturation, the research envisages growth in shipments will be slow. The report forecasts that smartphone shipments in 2018 will show a slight fall over 2017 despite some exciting model updates coming onto the market. Over the longer term, the research envisages shipments will rise by +1.2% CAGR between 2017 and 2022 to reach 468m in 2022. However, the report foresees a small jump in shipments in 2021 as early adopters look to purchase 5G smartphones.

Shipments by Brand

There will be a gradual shrinking in share taken by the smaller brands. The research forecasts that the top five brands will take up more than nine in ten smartphones shipped by 2022. Research shows that Xiaomi will see the largest rise due in part to changes in its business model, and will take a 22% market share at the end of the forecast period.

Smartphone Revenues

The report foresees average selling prices increasing due to costs of production and user upgrades. Average selling prices are forecast to increase at +4.3% CAGR between 2017 and 2022. Revenues are forecast to increase by +5.5% CAGR over the same period.

Mobile Subscriptions

Our forecast shows an increase in mobile subscriptions of +1.2% CAGR between 2017 and 2022 to reach 1.5bn in 2022. Despite operators citing 2020 as a launch year for 5G, it is believed this is likely to be brought forward to the second half of 2019. However, growth will be substantially lower than for 4G at its rollout and will form only 17% of all subscriptions in 2022.

At the end of 2017, 4G mobile subscriptions formed 69% of all mobile subscriptions. The report forecasts that 4G subscriptions will start declining from 2021 due to new 5G subscriptions and will form 74% of subscriptions in 2022.

Mobile Subscription Revenues

The report forecasts that revenues will increase at +1.6% CAGR between 2017 and 2022, and that ARPUs will increase at +0.7% CAGR, though accelerating during 2021 especially due to upgrades to 5G. China Unicom will see greatest revenue growth due to in part to upgrades to 4G subscriptions.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Apple (China)
  • Gionee
  • Huawei
  • LeEco
  • Meizu
  • OPPO
  • MORE

1. Brand Overviews
1.1 Overviews of top smartphone brands in China
1.1.1 Huawei
1.1.2 OPPO
1.1.3 Vivo
1.1.4 Xiaomi
1.1.5 Apple (China)
1.1.6 Other brands
1.1.6.1 Samsung
1.1.6.2 Meizu
1.1.6.3 Gionee
1.1.6.4 LeEco

2. Drivers of the China Smartphone Market
2.1 Drivers of smartphone purchases and subscriptions
2.1.1 Subsidies
2.1.2 Online channels
2.1.3 Bricks and mortar channels
2.1.4 Handset replacement rates
2.1.5 Market concentration
2.1.6 Market maturation
2.1.7 Supply chains
2.1.8 Pricing
2.1.8.1 Case study: Xiaomi
2.1.9 Innovation
2.1.10 Endorsements and sponsorship
2.2 Focus on drivers to 5G smartphone purchases and subscriptions
2.2.1 Overview of 5G developments and rollout
2.2.2 Factors informing 5G purchases and subscriptions
2.2.2.1 Speed and extent of rollout
2.2.2.2 5G content and services
2.2.2.3 5G smartphone devices and pricing
2.2.2.4 Subsidies
2.2.2.5 Network sharing

3. Smartphone Shipments
3.1 Brand performance and expectations for 2018/2019
3.1.1 Quarterly smartphone shipments by brand 2015-2017
3.1.1.1 Top selling smartphones
3.1.2 Huawei performance and expectations
3.1.3 Oppo performance and expectations
3.1.4 Vivo performance and expectations
3.1.5 Xiaomi performance and expectations
3.1.6 Apple performance and expectations
3.1.7 Other brands
3.2 Smartphone shipments 2015-2022
3.2.1 Smartphone shipments 2015-2022
3.2.2 Smartphone shipments by brand 2015-2022
3.3 Revenues and average selling prices from smartphone shipments 2015-2022
3.3.1 Factors affecting average selling prices
3.3.2 Operating profits of the top six smartphone brands
3.3.3 Smartphone revenues and average selling prices 2015-2022

4. Mobile Subscriptions
4.1 Mobile subscriptions 2013-2022
4.2 Mobile subscriptions by connection (2G/3G, 4G and 5G) 2013-2022
4.3 Mobile subscriptions by operator and connection type 2013-2022
4.3.1 Subscriptions by operator 2013-2022
4.3.2 Subscriptions by operator by connection type 2013-2022
4.4 Operator mobile revenues and ARPUs 2015-2022
4.4.1 China Mobile revenue and ARPU 2015-2022
4.4.2 China Telecom revenue and ARPU 2015-2022
4.4.3 China Unicom revenue and ARPU 2015-2022

5. Methodology

List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1. Smartphone shipments by brand by quarter 2015-2017
Exhibit 2. Smartphone shipments brand market shares by quarter 2015-2017
Exhibit 3. Top ten smartphones sold in 2017 in China by share
Exhibit 4. Smartphone shipments 2015-2022
Exhibit 5. Smartphone shipments by brand 2015-2022 (top five brands plus ‘others’)
Exhibit 6. Smartphone shipments brand market shares 2015-2022 (top five plus ‘others’)
Exhibit 7. Operating profit per smartphone sold in 2017 separated by brand (top six)
Exhibit 8. Estimated operating profit from smartphones shipped in China in 2017 separated by brand (top six)
Exhibit 9. Smartphone revenues and average selling prices 2015-2022
Exhibit 10. Mobile subscriptions 2013-2022
Exhibit 11. Mobile subscriptions 2013-2022, split by 2G/3G, 4G and 5G
Exhibit 12. Mobile subscriptions 2013-2022, split by 2G/3G, 4G and 5G (market shares)
Exhibit 13. Forecast for 5G mobile subscriptions 2019-2022 (vs 4G mobile subscriptions 2014-2017 for comparison)
Exhibit 14. Mobile subscriptions by operator 2013-2022
Exhibit 15. Mobile subscriptions by operator (market shares) 2013-2022
Exhibit 16. China Mobile - mobile subscriptions 2013-2022, with 2G/3G, 4G and 5G split out
Exhibit 17. China Telecom - mobile subscriptions 2013-2022, with 2G/3G, 4G and 5G split out
Exhibit 18. China Unicom - mobile subscriptions 2013-2022, with 2G/3G, 4G and 5G split out
Exhibit 19. China Mobile: Revenue from mobile subscribers and ARPU 2015-2022
Exhibit 20. China Telecom: Revenue from mobile subscribers and ARPU 2015-2022
Exhibit 21. China Unicom: Revenue from mobile subscribers and ARPU, 2015-2022

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  • Huawei
  • OPPO
  • Vivo
  • Xiaomi
  • Apple (China)
  • Samsung
  • Meizu
  • Gionee
  • LeEco
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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