Pay-TV Services Worldwide: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

  • ID: 4490635
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 28 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Cable Growth has Peaked, Satellite will Grow a Little, but IPTV Will Make the Greatest Gains Between 2017 and 2022

Retail revenue from pay TV and OTT video to the TV will grow by USD50 billion between 2017 and 2022, but 85% of this growth will be from OTT video. Worldwide pay-TV penetration will grow to 59%, but North America will suffer from significant cord-cutting.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services, spend and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and OTT video delivered to the TV set
  • forecasts for eight regions
  • an overview of the trends and drivers in the market.

These forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market  experts from our topic-led research programmes and our  consulting division, as well as external interviews.

In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

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Chapter No.

8. Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
9. Worldwide: pay-TV penetration will grow to 57% of households; the emerging Asia–Pacific region will be responsible for most of this growth
10. Worldwide: retail revenue from pay TV and OTT video to the TV will grow by USD50 billion from 2017 to 2022, but 85% of growth will be from OTT
11. Worldwide: cable growth has peaked; satellite will grow a little, but IPTV will make the greatest gains between 2017 and 2022
12. Worldwide: worldwide pay-TV penetration will grow in all regions except North America, where cord-cutting will be the most significant
13. Regional forecasts
14. Western Europe: IPTV will drive revenue growth, but top-level ASPU will remain quite stable in the region
15. Western Europe: IPTV will grow as the rest of the market contracts
16. Western Europe: Sky’s OTT launch will trigger a significant shift to OTT-to-the-TV viewing in three of the region’s biggest markets
17. Central and Eastern Europe: traditional pay-TV spend will grow, but OTT video spend will dramatically outpace that of IPTV
18. Central and Eastern Europe: IPTV will continue to bring new customers to pay TV
19. Central and Eastern Europe: affordability and availability of illegal services will limit the demand for OTT video
20. Middle East and North Africa: revenue growth will be strong in both traditional and OTT-to-the-TV segments
21. Middle East and North Africa: strong growth in IPTV will challenge the long-established dominance of regional satellite broadcasters
22. Middle East and North Africa: the popularity of illegal streaming will be a barrier to OTT adoption
23. Sub-Saharan Africa: satellite will dominate the growing pay-TV market
24. Sub-Saharan Africa: the overwhelming majority of the pay-TV market will be split between satellite and pay-DTT platforms
25. Sub-Saharan Africa: affordability and infrastructure issues will prevent OTT to the TV from becoming a mass market proposition
26. Emerging Asia–Pacific: IPTV will thrive, but the greatest winner in terms of spend and subscriber growth will be OTT to the TV set
27. Emerging Asia–Pacific: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable
28. Emerging Asia–Pacific: OTT growth will be strong, but not at the expense of traditional pay TV in most markets in the short-to-medium term
29. Developed Asia–Pacific: revenue growth will be low as markets are saturated and OTT competition is growing
30. Developed Asia–Pacific: the popularity of free-to-air broadcasting will limit the future growth of pay TV
31. North America: cord-cutting will continue, but premium users who retain their services will prevent a substantial ASPU decline
32. North America: cord-cutting will continue, but premium users who retain their services will prevent a substantial ASPU decline
33. North America: cable operators will drive migration to managed IP delivery
34. North America: OTT services will continue to grow in popularity as more producers launch their own alternatives
35. Latin America: pay-TV markets will grow further, as cable continues to be the leading technology
36. Latin America: demand for local and premium content will limit the decline of a relatively high ASPU
37. Latin America: the number of OTT-to-the-TV users will more than double during the forecast period
38. Forecast methodology and assumptions
39. Our spend forecasts focus on linear and on-demand content to the TV
40. Our definition of ‘OTT-video-to-the-TV’ services
41. About the authors

List of figures:
Figure 1: IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections and the number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, 2021
Figure 2: Traditional pay-TV and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, worldwide, 2013-2022
Figure 3: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 4: The number of pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, worldwide, 2013–2022
Figure 6a: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2013–2022
Figure 6b: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2013–2022
Figure 7: Traditional pay-TV and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, Western Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 8: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, Western Europe, 2016–2022
Figure 9: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2016–2022
Figure 10: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 11a: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Western European countries, 2013–2022
Figure 11b: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Western European countries, 2013–2022
Figure 12: Traditional pay-TV and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 13: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2022
Figure 14: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, Central and Eastern Europe,2016–2022
Figure 15: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 16: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 17: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 18: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 19: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 20: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 22: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Middle East and North Africa countries, 2013–2022
Figure 23: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, 2013–2022
Figure 24: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 25: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 26: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 28: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 29: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 30: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 31: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 33: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, emerging Asia–Pacific countries, 2013–2022
Figure 34: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, emerging Asia–Pacific countries, 2013–2022
Figure 35: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 36: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 37: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 39: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 40: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, North America, 2013–2022
Figure 41: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, North America, 2016–2022
Figure 42: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, North America, 2016–2022
Figure 43: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, North America, 2013–2022
Figure 44: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, North America, 2013–2022
Figure 45: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, Latin America, 2013–2022
Figure 46: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2016–2022
Figure 47: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Latin America, 2016–2022
Figure 48: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Latin America, 2013–2022
Figure 49: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Latin America, 2013–2022
Figure 50: Scope of our pay-TV spend forecasts
Figure 51: Definition of OTT video services to the TV

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