Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

  • ID: 4495827
  • Report
  • Region: Europe, Western Europe
  • 44 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Investment in Network Infrastructure is the Key to Sustaining Revenue in Western Europe

Premium pricing from next-generation access (NGA) broadband will be the main revenue growth driver, as the commoditisation of mobile services progresses from voice and messaging to handset data. Fixed markets will perform better than mobile markets in most countries, but the line between the two is becoming increasingly blurred.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 360 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe (WE), as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, 3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, 3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Chapter Number:

8. Executive summary
9. Revenue trends in Western Europe are improving in many countries, but growth will be limited
10. Retail revenue growth across Western Europe will be flat; no country will have a retail revenue CAGR above or below ±2%
11. Geographical coverage: the Nordic countries have the highest take-up of high-speed fixed and mobile services
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Market context: economic recovery is underway in Western Europe, but will depend on the outcome of Brexit
16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
17. Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market
18. Market overview: overall revenue will remain stable, with fixed broadband acting as the main source of growth
19. Mobile: cellular data traffic growth will remain strong, but ARPU will continue to decline
20. Mobile: penetration in most markets will stabilise at approximately 120-130%
21. Mobile: ARPU correlates with wealth, and it is noticeably higher outside the European Union
22. Mobile: the growth in usage will be driven by technological upgrades and tariffing, but competition will limit operators' ability to monetise it
23. Fixed: the increased uptake of NGA will drive strong growth in fixed Internet traffic
24. Fixed: the penetration of fixed broadband will approach saturation in many countries over the next 5 years
25. Fixed: broadband ASPU will remain buoyant in most countries, as infrastructure upgrades lead to higher speeds and higher prices
26. Fixed: unlike in the mobile market there is still scope for growth in the take-up of fixed broadband in Western Europe
27. Business services: traditional telecoms providers will struggle to capture the growth in business service revenue
28. IoT: the IoT sector is an important area of growth in Western Europe, as operators seek alternative revenue streams
29. Pay TV: Western European traditional pay-TV revenue will contract after 2021, but growth will still be strong for OTT video services
30. Individual country forecasts
31. France: total service revenue will recover slightly as retail revenue from mobile handset services returns to growth
32. France: technological upgrades will drive increased usage and help to stabilise the revenue per user
33. France: 2020 will see the launch of 5G mobile services and the full availability of superfast broadband services
34. France: we have slightly increased our revenue forecast since the previous edition
35. Germany: revenue growth will be slow, led by mobile data adoption and NGA fixed broadband pricing premiums
36. Germany: network upgrades will continue, but DSL will remain dominant in the fixed broadband market
37. Germany: there is significant scope for growth in mobile usage and higher-speed broadband, but this will not increase revenue
38. Germany: our revenue forecast has been decreased somewhat, but we still predict growth throughout the forecast period
39. Italy: the slight revenue growth in 2017 is an anomaly in a broader downward trend
40. Italy: strong growth in fixed broadband revenue will be outstripped by the decline in voice revenue
41. Italy: the Italian mobile market is braced for disruption with the imminent launch of Iliad
42. Italy: 2017 was stronger than we anticipated, but the launch of Iliad will put pressure on revenue from 2018 onwards
43. Spain: retail revenue growth is expected to continue until 2019 driven by converged bundle take-up
44. Spain: fixed broadband ASPU will be sustained by the transition from DSL to FTTP/B
45. Spain: content bundling is a key facet of competition in Spain's converged market
46. Spain: our total revenue forecast for Spain has been decreased slightly in light of the latest historical data
47. UK: retail revenue growth will start to decline from 2019 as opportunities for service enrichment dwindle
48. UK: DSL will remain dominant in the broadband market
49. UK: investment in FTTP/B is on the horizon, despite the uncertainties caused by Brexit
50. UK: there is very little change in our overall revenue forecast for the UK
51. Methodology
52. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
53. Examples of forecast input drivers
54. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
56. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2016--2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of the key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017--2022), by country, Western Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2012--2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2012--2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2012--2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Western Europe, 2012--2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2013--2022
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Western Europe, 2013--2022
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2012--2022
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2012--2022
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2012--2022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2012--2022
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2012--2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2012--2022
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (MB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2012--2022
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, France, 2012--2022
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2012--2022
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2012--2022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2012--2022
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2012--2022
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2012--2022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2012--2022
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (MB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2012--2022
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2012--2022
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2012--2022
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2012--2022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2012--2022
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2012--2022
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2012--2022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2012--2022
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (MB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2012--2022
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2012--2022
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2012--2022
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2012--2022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2012--2022
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2012--2022
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2012--2022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2012--2022
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (MB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2012--2022
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2012--2022
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 2012--2022
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2012--2022
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2012--2022
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2012--2022
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2012--2022
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2012--2022
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (MB per month), 2012--2022
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2012--2022
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UK, 2012--2022
Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
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