Country Risk Service Belarus 2nd Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4519505
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Belarus
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Growing export receipts, lucrative energy and loan deals with Russia, and a Eurobond issue in 2017 will help Belarus to cover large debt repayments falling due in 2018-19. The country's dependence on external financing remains a major risk. Foreign-exchange reserve coverage of the financing requirement is low, and commitment to pay is uncertain. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that Russian financial support would be forthcoming if need be.

After depreciating sharply in 2015-16, the rubel stabilised in 2017, in line with the trajectory of the Russian rouble and a recovery in Belarusian industrial exports. We expect the rubel to remain broadly stable in 2018-19. Total reserves have recovered, reaching US$7.3bn at end-2017, up from a low of US$4bn in early 2016. The rubel exchange rate is correlated to that of the Russian rouble and is therefore vulnerable to volatility in energy and financial markets.

The banking sector has recovered after the 2015-16 recession depressed profitability, pushed up the incidence of bad loans, and led to a crash in lending to non-financial public and private firms. However, non-performing loan ratios remain stubbornly high; this will hold back the pace of economic recovery in 2018-19. A major risk is the high level of state-owned enterprise debt.
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Country Risk Service Belarus 2nd Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2018-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2018-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2018-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2018-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2018-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2018-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2018-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2018-19: Exchange rates
Rubel redenominated on July 1st 2016

Central scenario for 2018-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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