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Country Risk Service Belarus 2nd Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4519505
  • Country Profile
  • April 2019
  • Region: Belarus
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk rating is in the middle of the CCC band in The Economist Intelligence Unit's (most recent) January 2019 rating report. The outlook is stable. Growing export receipts and recent large loans from Russia will help Belarus to cover large debt repayments due in 2019-20 (the forecast period). The reliance on external financing and exposure to external shocks are major risks.

The currency risk score is at the weaker end of B band and the outlook is negative. The Belarusian rubel was redenominated in July 2016. The rubel depreciated against the US dollar to an average of BRb2.04:US$1 in 2018, from BRb1.93:US$1 in 2017, mirroring the trajectory of the Russian rouble. Total foreign-exchange reserves provide only two months of import cover, and this could lead to a downgrade during the forecast period.

The banking risk score is in the middle of the CCC band and the outlook is stable. Recession in 2015-16 pushed up the incidence of bad loans, and lending to businesses contracted in 2016-17. The current sluggish rebound in credit growth will hold back the pace of economic recovery in 2019-20. A major banking sector risk is the high level of state-owned enterprise debt.
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Country Risk Service Belarus 2nd Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-20: Exchange rates
Rubel redenominated on July 1st 2016

Central scenario for 2019-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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