Emerging Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

  • ID: 4520318
  • Report
  • 44 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"The main telecoms retail revenue contributors in EMAP during the forecast period will continue to be mobile voice and handset data services, followed by fixed broadband and IPTV."

We forecast that fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will see grow at similar CAGRs of around 2% from 2017–2022 in the emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) region, driven by the fast growth in the number of 4G connections and fixed broadband network developments.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key Performance Indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, 3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, 3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Chapter No.

9. Executive summary
10. Telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period, but the CAGR will fall from 5.1% (2012–2016) to 3.4% (2016–2022)
11. Retail revenue across the EMAP region will increase, with no countries in the region experiencing revenue decline over the period
12. Geographical coverage: most countries will see substantial technological development of fixed and mobile networks
13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
14. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
15. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
16. Market context: telecoms service revenue in EMAP reached USD280 billion in 2016 (1.7% of total GDP); China contributed more than half
17. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
18. Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market
19. Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will increase over the forecast period, reaching USD328 billion in 2022
20. Mobile: the amount of data traffic will increase dramatically over the forecast period with a CAGR of 61%
21. Mobile: Malaysia and Cambodia will be the only countries in the region with declining mobile penetration
22. Mobile: in most markets, competitive price pressure will outweigh data monetisation resulting in a decrease in the regional ARPU
23. Mobile: the markets in EMAP are at varying stages of development, but most operators will focus on data monetisation over the forecast period
24. Fixed: FTTP/B will account for 87.8% of fixed broadband connections in 2022
25. Fixed: China leads the way in broadband penetration thanks to substantial government-backed investment
26. Fixed: the broadband ASPU will decrease at an average rate of 2.6% per year as operators lower prices to attract mass-market customers
27. Fixed: increased fibre coverage and affordability will drive broadband penetration over the forecast period
28. Business services: operators will benefit from increasing other business services revenue
29. IoT: total revenue from the IoT value chain will grow to almost USD40 billion by 2022
30. Pay TV: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable
31. Individual country forecasts
32. China: total service revenue will increase, driven by growth in mobile data ARPU and fixed broadband penetration
33. China: almost all mobile connections will be 4G/5G; this will increase mobile data usage and stabilise mobile ARPU
34. China: network investment has resulted in one of the most developed telecoms markets in the world
35. China: forecast changes
36. Indonesia: the overall revenue will peak in 2019 and then decrease as a result of the level of competition in the market
37. Indonesia: FTTP/B has become the fixed broadband technology with the highest share of connections
38. Indonesia: declining mobile ARPU will limit overall telecoms revenue growth, despite the scope for growth for fixed broadband
39. Indonesia: forecast changes
40. Malaysia: telecoms revenue will remain approximately constant at around MYR31 billion over the forecast period
41. Malaysia: the average mobile data usage per connection will increase at a CAGR of 60.6%, and will be the highest in EMAP
42. Malaysia: potential market consolidation should keep the ARPU stable, despite a saturated mobile market
43. Malaysia: forecast changes
44. Philippines: mobile handset service revenue will decrease over the forecast period, but the overall revenue will increase
45. Philippines: prohibitive pricing will deter consumers from taking postpaid subscriptions, despite the mobile data usage growth
46. Philippines: the eventual entry of the third mobile operator will shake up the Philippine telecoms market
47. Philippines: forecast changes
48. Thailand: total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue will peak at THB394 billion in 2020
49. Thailand: market competition will cause mobile and fixed broadband ASPU to decrease over the forecast period
50. Thailand: network improvement will result in one of the most technologically developed telecoms markets in EMAP
51. Thailand: forecast changes
52. Vietnam: extensive FTTP deployments will result in a fixed broadband retail CAGR of 12.9% over the forecast period
53. Vietnam: the volume of mobile data traffic per connection remains the lowest in the EMAP region
54. Vietnam: operators’ fibre roll-outs will result in Vietnam being the only EMAP nation (other than China) to be 100% NGA in 2022
55. Vietnam: forecast changes
56. Methodology
57. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
58. Examples of forecast input drivers
59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
60. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
61. About the author

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2022
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2012–2022
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2012–2022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2012–2022
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2012–2022
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, China, 2012–2022
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2012–2022
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2012–2022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2012–2022
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2012–2022
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2012–2022
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2012–2022
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2012–2022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2012–2022
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2012–2022
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2012–2022
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2012–2022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2012–2022
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2012–2022
Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2012–2022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2012–2022
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2012–2022
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2012–2022
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2012–2022
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2012–2022
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2012–2022
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2012–2022
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2012–2022
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2012–2022
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2012–2022
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2012–2022
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam, 2012–2022
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2012–2022
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2012–2022
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2012–2022
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2012–2022
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2012–2022
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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  • Bangladesh
  • Cambodia
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Nepal
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam
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