Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

  • ID: 4522232
  • Report
  • Region: Nigeria
  • 92 Pages
  • Strategic Defence Intelligence
1 of 5

Nigerian defense budget, valued at US$1.6 billion in 2018, registered a negative CAGR of 6.54% during the historic period. The country has a long history of internal conflicts negatively affecting its economic growth and stability. Growing threats from Boko Haram, piracy, oil smuggling in the Gulf of Guinea, and contributions to peacekeeping operations are expected to drive the country’s military expenditure, registering a growth rate of 15.22% over the forecast period.

Capital expenditure’s share of the total defense budget increased from 10.1% in 2014 to 25.6% in 2018. Allocations towards the army are expected to marginally decrease from the historic period to forecast period. Similarly, allocation towards the Navy and Air Force is also expected to decrease. Slow population growth is expected to marginally increase the per capita defense expenditure from 2019 to 2023.

However, defense equipment such as multirole aircraft, Land based C4ISR, airborne C4ISR, corvettes attack helicopters, and military IT-networking are expected to be in demand over the forecast period.

The report "Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023" detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

  • The Nigerian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigerian defense industry.

Companies mentioned in this report: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON), Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited (DANA).

Scope:

  • Nigeria’s government allocated US$1.6 billion in 2018 towards its defense budget. Over 2014-2018, the country’s defense budget recorded a CAGR of -6.54%. Nigeria’s defense budget is further expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.22% over the forecast period, registering a cumulative value of US$12.1 billion.
  • Growing threats from terrorist group Boko Haram, persistent oil theft, smuggling operations in the Gulf of Guinea, and the largest contingent contribution from Africa to peacekeeping operations have been driving the country’s expenditure on its armed forces.
  • Over the forecast period, the Nigerian military is expected to invest in procuring multirole aircrafts, helicopters, corvettes, C4ISRs among others.
  • The country is also likely to invest in developing military infrastructure such as inland harbors roads and airstrips to support surveillance activities.

Reasons to buy:

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts
READ MORE
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
2 of 5

1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Scenario
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
3.1.4. Procurement Programs
3.1.5. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
3.1.6. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects
3.1.7. Political and Strategic Alliances
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Nigerian defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.22% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense expenditure
3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.38% over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase at an average of 19.4% over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.72% over the forecast period
3.3.3. Defense budget allocation towards the army accounts for the majority out of the armed forces
3.3.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 15.56% over the forecast period
3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase over the forecast period
3.4.2. The threat from Boko Haram, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering are expected to drive the homeland security budget
3.4.3. Nigeria falls under the ‘worst affected category’ by terrorist attacks
3.4.4. Nigeria faces worst effect of threat from foreign and domestic terrorist organizations
3.4.5. Nigeria has a Terrorism Index Score of 9.0
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. The country’s defense budget is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.5.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to the countries with the highest global defense expenditure
3.5.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense than other African counties
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023
3.6.2. Multirole Aircraft
3.6.3. Land Based C4ISR
3.6.4. Airborne C4ISR

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited capability of the domestic defense market drives imports
4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
4.1.3. Russia, China and the US accounts for the majority of the country’s defense imports
4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the highest imported military hardware
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its underdeveloped domestic arms industry

5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low to Medium
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Medium to High
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low

6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector is prohibited by the Nigerian government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Budgeting Process
6.2.2. Defense procurement process
6.2.3. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry
6.3.2. Small defense budget discourages major suppliers
6.3.3. Unorganized, mismanaged industry jeopardizes the development of the domestic industry

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Overview
7.2.2. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Products and Services
7.2.3. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
7.2.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Overview
7.2.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Products and Services

8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion)
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
8.1.8. Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP)
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (LCU)
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.1.15. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix

List of Tables:
Table 1: Nigerian Army Strength
Table 2: Nigerian Air Force Strength
Table 3: Nigerian Navy Strength
Table 4: Nigerian - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs
Table 5: Nigerian - Future Procurement Programs
Table 6: Top Nigerian Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
Table 7: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023
Table 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Table 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Table 10: Nigerian Defense Capital Expenditure (NGN Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 11: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2014-2023
Table 12: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2014-2023
Table 13: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2014-2023
Table 14: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Table 15: Nigerian Homeland Security Expenditure (NGN Billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023
Table 16: Terrorism Index, 2018
Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Table 18: Top 10 Nigerian Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023
Table 19: Nigeria Budget Formation Timetable
Table 20: Top 10 Defense Suppliers in The Nigerian Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
Table 21: Competitive Landscape of the Nigeria Defense Industry
Table 22: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria - Main Products
Table 23: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
Table 24: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
Table 25: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria - Main Products

List of Figures:
Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 3: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Figure 4: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Figure 5: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion),2014-2023
Figure 6: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 7: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy and Others, 2014-2023
Figure 8: Nigerian Defense Budget in NGN Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others) 2014-2023
Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others) 2014-2023
Figure 10: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Figure 11: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (NGN billion), 2014-2023
Figure 12: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2014-2023
Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018
Figure 18: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Figure 19: Land Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Figure 20: Airborne C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Figure 21: Nigeria’s Defense Procurements in Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships
Figure 22: Nigerian Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (US$ Million)
Figure 23: Nigerian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017
Figure 24: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 25: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 26: Nigeria’s GDP per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 27: Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 28: Nigeria’s Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 29: Nigeria’s Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 30: Nigeria’s Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 31: Nigeria’s LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 32: Nigeria’s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 33: Nigeria’s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 34: Nigerian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012
Figure 35: Nigeria’s Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 36: Nigeria’s Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 37: Nigeria’s Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 38: Nigeria’s Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2012
Figure 39: Nigeria’s Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 40: Nigeria’s Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 41: Nigeria’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 2005-2014

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
3 of 5

Loading
LOADING...

4 of 5
  • Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON)
  • Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited (DANA)
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
5 of 5
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Adroll
adroll