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The sovereign risk score improved modestly, but remained firmly in the B-rating band in our latest assessment. A recent downward trend in key global interest rates and a softening of inflation bode well for maintaining the currency peg, which might otherwise inflate the local currency value of external obligations. In any event, Turkmenistan has low levels of public and external debt.
The currency risk score remained within the CCC band. The score improved slightly, owing to a modest improvement in external performance and easing inflation in 2019. This will help the Central Bank of Turkmenistan to maintain the local currency-US dollar peg at the current value of Manat3.5:US$1 in 2020-21 (the forecast period).
The banking risk rating remained unchanged, at CC, with a slight improvement in the score, in line with a decline in the main global interest rates. The sector is poorly regulated and domestic debt markets are underdeveloped. Government-directed lending constrains financial soundness indicators.
The currency risk score remained within the CCC band. The score improved slightly, owing to a modest improvement in external performance and easing inflation in 2019. This will help the Central Bank of Turkmenistan to maintain the local currency-US dollar peg at the current value of Manat3.5:US$1 in 2020-21 (the forecast period).
The banking risk rating remained unchanged, at CC, with a slight improvement in the score, in line with a decline in the main global interest rates. The sector is poorly regulated and domestic debt markets are underdeveloped. Government-directed lending constrains financial soundness indicators.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Country Risk Service Turkmenistan 2nd Quarter Updater
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2020-21: Political stability
Central scenario for 2020-21: Election watch
Central scenario for 2020-21: International relations
Accuracy of official data
Central scenario for 2020-21: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2020-21: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2020-21: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2020-21: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2020-21: Inflation
Central scenario for 2020-21: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2020-21: External sector
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2020-21: Political stability
Central scenario for 2020-21: Election watch
Central scenario for 2020-21: International relations
Accuracy of official data
Central scenario for 2020-21: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2020-21: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2020-21: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2020-21: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2020-21: Inflation
Central scenario for 2020-21: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2020-21: External sector
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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