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Country Risk Service Turkmenistan 2nd Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4522293
  • Country Profile
  • April 2020
  • Region: Turkmenistan
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk score improved modestly, but remained firmly in the B-rating band in our latest assessment. A recent downward trend in key global interest rates and a softening of inflation bode well for maintaining the currency peg, which might otherwise inflate the local currency value of external obligations. In any event, Turkmenistan has low levels of public and external debt.

The currency risk score remained within the CCC band. The score improved slightly, owing to a modest improvement in external performance and easing inflation in 2019. This will help the Central Bank of Turkmenistan to maintain the local currency-US dollar peg at the current value of Manat3.5:US$1 in 2020-21 (the forecast period).

The banking risk rating remained unchanged, at CC, with a slight improvement in the score, in line with a decline in the main global interest rates. The sector is poorly regulated and domestic debt markets are underdeveloped. Government-directed lending constrains financial soundness indicators.
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Country Risk Service Turkmenistan 2nd Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-21: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-21: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-21: International relations
Accuracy of official data

Central scenario for 2020-21: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-21: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-21: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-21: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-21: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-21: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-21: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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