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Brexit: Scenarios & Impact on MNCs

  • ID: 4523043
  • Report
  • 57 Pages
  • Frontier Strategy Group
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Regardless of its final outcome, the UK’s exit from the European Union will reshape the operating environment for MNCs in the UK. This report assumes a transitional deal followed by a free trade agreement with the EU, but a downside scenario of the UK crashing out of the single market is a distinct possibility. MNCs need to understand all the possible outcomes of Brexit to prepare baseline and contingency plans well ahead of the March 2019 deadline to mitigate significant supply chain, logistics, and demand disruptions

What you will learn

  • Detailed Brexit scenarios and actions to take
  • Implications for MNCs: contingency and scenario planning
  • Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region

What you will receive

  • Immediate access to the 57-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases
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Executive Summary

About this Report


Brexit is the New Reality

Foundational Brexit Assumptions

Political Risk is Looming in the UK

New Elections Would Complicate Plans

Section 1: Brexit Scenarios Overview
Brexit Scenarios Overview
UK Trade Scenarios 2018-Post-2021
Overview of Trade Scenarios
Follow Government Statements as Signposts

Section 2: Detailed Scenarios and Recommended Actions
Scenario 1: Hard Brexit
Scenario 1: Hard Brexit Timeline
Scenario 1: Impact and Actions to Take
Scenario 2: Transition to a FTA
Scenario 2:Transition to a FTA Timeline
Scenario 2: Impact and Actions to Take
Scenario 3: Moderate Brexit (EFTA)
Scenario 3: Moderate Brexit Timeline
Scenario 4: Soft Brexit (EFTA-EEA)
Scenario 4: Soft Brexit Timeline
Scenario 3 & 4: Impact & Actions to Take
Scenario 5: Brexit Reversed (EU Membership)
Scenario 5: Brexit Reversed Timeline
Scenario 5: Impact and Actions to Take

Section 3: Implications for MNCs:Contingency and Scenario Planning
The Business Case for Contingency Planning
Contingency Planning Methodology
Contingency Planning Process
Scenario Planning Processes
Market Monitoring Processes

Section 4: A. Foundational Assumptions in Detail
Assumption 1: EU Withdrawal Bill Passes
EU Withdrawal Bill: Timeline
Assumption 2: Transitional Deal is Ratified
Assumption 3: Final Deal is Ratified
Assumption 4: No Hard Border in Ireland
No Brexit Scenario is Win-Win

Section 5: B. Political Scenarios in Detail
Political Scenarios for UK 2018-Post-2021

Section 6: C. Political Scenarios in Detail
Consumer Spending Scenarios Summary
Consumer Prices Scenarios Summary
Unemployment Scenarios Summary
Investment Scenarios Summary
GDP Scenarios Summary
Exports Scenarios Summary
Imports Scenarios Summary
Government Spending Scenarios Summary
Exchange Rate Scenarios Summary


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