Wealth in Germany: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2018

Wealth in Germany: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2018

Summary

Germany has an established and mature wealth market. The upswing in the German economy and strong stock market performance in 2017, has fueled further growth in this sector, increasing the proportion of the population that can be classed as affluent. This provides significant opportunities for German wealth managers, not only to grow assets under management but also to gain new clients. However, with changes to capital gains tax on the horizon and falling real returns in the traditionally preferred safe havens of deposits and bonds, the role of wealth managers in a traditionally risk-averse market will become more challenging.

Favorable economic conditions mean that growth in the affluent population and their assets is forecast to pick up further to 2021. HNW individuals holding more than $10m in assets are expected to see the fastest increases. Wealth managers should note that almost a fifth of HNW assets are held in illiquid classes, with residential and commercial property investments proving popular as a result of booming markets. Providing access to expertise in property investments, whether through partnerships or directly, is a good option for wealth managers to explore and develop.

While a relatively low proportion of German HNW wealth is held offshore, the country’s new coalition government has promised a major crackdown on tax evasion. Wealth managers should not ignore the important benefits of portfolio diversification that offshore investments can bring. Yet for wealth managers and HNW investors, the risks of getting it wrong in terms of structuring investments in a non-compliant manner have increased substantially in recent years, meaning having access to tax expertise is critical.

"Wealth in Germany: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2018", analyzes Germany’s wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets.

Key takeaways of the report:

Affluent individuals account for 20% of the German population, holding 78% of liquid assets.

The economic upswing will continue to underpin growth in Germany’s overall retail savings and investments market, which is forecast to grow.

Equities and mutual funds are forecast to show the fastest growth to 2021, yet structural issues mean they will remain under-represented in consumer portfolios for the next five years.

Equities are the most popular assets for non-resident investors, with non-residents accounting for just over 47% of the total retail equity market.

Specifically the report:

Sizes the affluent market (both by number of individuals and the value of their assets) using our proprietary datasets.

Examines HNW clients’ attitudes towards non-liquid asset classes, such as property and commodities and offshore investments.

Analyzes which asset classes are favored by German investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the total savings and investments market.

Evaluates the size of the retail non-resident (offshore) market in Germany and foreign investors’ preferences.

Scope

Affluent individuals account for 20% of the German population, holding 78% of liquid assets. More HNW individuals were created in 2017 as a result of strong economic and stock market performance.

The economic upswing will continue to underpin growth in Germany’s overall retail savings and investments market, which is forecast to grow by an average of 3.7% a year to 2021.

Equities and mutual funds are forecast to show the fastest growth to 2021, yet structural issues mean they will remain under-represented in consumer portfolios at around 30% of the market for the next five years.

Equities are the most popular assets for non-resident investors, with non-residents accounting for just over 47% of the total retail equity market.

Reasons to buy

Benchmark your share of the German wealth market against the current market size.

Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2021.

Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing penetration of affluent individuals in Germany.

Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how the ever-changing tax system affects your HNW clients.

Review your offshore strategy and offering for non-resident investors by learning the dynamics in these markets.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1. The strength of the German economy presents opportunities for wealth managers to grow existing AUM and gain new clients
1.2. Key findings
1.3. Critical success factors

2. THE ONSHORE GERMAN WEALTH MARKET HAS BEEN BOOSTED BY AN ECONOMIC UPSWING

2.1. Introduction
2.2. Robust growth is expected in the German wealth market to 2021
2.2.1. 2017 saw an upswing in the German economy
2.2.2. The strong economy means that HNWs now account for 0.45% of the population
2.2.3. German affluent individuals hold a rising proportion of liquid assets
2.2.4. Almost a fifth of HNW assets are held in illiquid classes
2.3. Offshore investments still form a small proportion of HNW assets
2.3.1. The German government has taken numerous steps to tackle offshore tax evasion
2.3.2. Germany also plays an active role in global tax transparency efforts, having signed TIEAs and double taxation conventions with many offshore centers globally

3. DEPOSITS ARE THE MAINSTAY OF THE GERMAN RETAIL SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS MARKET

3.1. Introduction
3.2. The performance of the overall market continues to be determined by the dominant role of deposits
3.2.1. Growth will be dampened by the country’s over-reliance on deposits
3.2.2. Proposed changes to capital gains tax will affect future investment preferences
3.3. The German preference for deposits will continue to 2021, although their appeal will be slightly dampened
3.3.1. Stock market volatility boosted deposit inflows in 2016, in spite of the 0% interest rate
3.3.2. Inflation increased relatively sharply in 2017, affecting real returns on deposits
3.3.3. Germany’s traditional preference for deposits and risk aversion will continue to drive growth
3.4. Negative yields are deterring investors from the bond market
3.5. Equities and mutual funds are increasing in popularity, but structural issues continue to impede their share of assets
3.5.1. The DAX outperformed its European peers with strong growth in 2017
3.5.2. Structural issues mean equities and mutual funds remain under-represented in asset portfolios
3.5.3. The Investment Tax Reform Act will impact this sector

4. THE GERMAN RETAIL NON-RESIDENT MARKET IS DOMINATED BY EQUITIES AND BONDS

4.1. Introduction
4.2. Equities and bonds are favored by non-residents
4.2.1. Non-residents have been attracted by the strong performance of the DAX
4.2.2. Negative yields mean the attractiveness of government bonds is predominantly based on their security
4.2.3. Deposit balances held by offshore investors have declined since 2013
4.2.4. Non-resident investment in mutual funds remains low

5. APPENDIX

5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms
5.2. Supplementary data
5.3. Definitions
5.3.1. Affluent
5.3.2. Domicile
5.3.3. Double taxation convention
5.3.4. Emerging affluent
5.3.5. FATCA
5.3.6. HNW
5.3.7. Liquid assets
5.3.8. Mass affluent
5.3.9. Mass market
5.3.10. Onshore
5.3.11. Residency
5.3.12. Exchange of information
5.3.13. TIEAs
5.4. Methodology
5.4.1. Global Wealth Managers Survey 2017
5.4.2. Retail Investments Analytics
5.4.3. Global Wealth Model
5.4.4. Total HNW Wealth Analytics
5.4.5. Exchange rates
5.5. Bibliography
5.6. Further reading

List of Tables

Table 1: German adult population segmented by wealth asset band (000s), 2006-13
Table 2: German adult population segmented by wealth asset band (000s), 2014-21f
Table 3: Retail liquid assets in Germany segmented by asset band ($bn), 2006-13
Table 4: Retail liquid assets in Germany segmented by asset band ($bn), 2014-21f
Table 5: US dollar exchange rates with the euro

List of Figures

Figure 1: 20% of the German population is affluent
Figure 2: Affluent individuals account for 78% of total liquid assets in Germany
Figure 3: The value and proportion of HNW illiquid asset holdings is diminishing
Figure 4: German HNWs have low levels of offshore investment
Figure 5: Germany is an early adopter of the OECD’s CRS
Figure 6: Deposits will continue to dominate the retail savings and investments market, although they will continue to gradually lose share
Figure 7: While under-represented in consumer portfolios, equities will show the fastest growth to 2021
Figure 8: Growth in deposits will slow to 2021
Figure 9: Bonds will continue to decline in popularity to 2021
Figure 10: 2017 was a record year for the DAX Index
Figure 11: Equities will show robust growth to 2021, with inflows predicted to increase
Figure 12: Mutual funds will show more muted growth to 2021
Figure 13: Equities and bonds are the big draw for non-resident retail investors in Germany