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Turkey 2023: Scenarios & Outlook

  • ID: 4534268
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Middle East, North Africa, Turkey
  • 52 Pages
  • Frontier Strategy Group
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Prepare for Retaliatory Actions and Further Protectionism


Turkey will remain an attractive market in multinational companies’ emerging Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) portfolios in the next five years. Consumer, business, and public-sector demand will grow moderately, creating opportunities but not buoying easy revenue growth for firms.

High costs, competitive pressures, and foreign exchange volatility will be key components of the business environment. While they focus on capturing short-term opportunities in a complex operating environment, businesses must also take the necessary actions now to build the long-term resilience of their Turkey businesses.

A plethora of economic and political pressures since 2015 and the prioritization of high growth in 2017 weakened Turkey’s macroeconomic fundamentals, increasing its vulnerability to a slowdown in the economy and/or a liquidity crunch in the next five years.

What you will learn

  • What does the long-term outlook and operating environment in Turkey look like
  • Which scenarios should companies be monitoring (base-,downside-,upside cases)
  • What are the 8 disruptors every business should be prepared for

What you will receive

  • Immediate access to the 52-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
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Executive Summary


Understanding Turkey’s Trajectory
Turkey Benefitted From The Last Decades
Economy Has Been Under Pressure Since 2015
The Government Boosted Growth in 2017
Financial Buffers Buy Turkey Time
MNCs Must Outperform the Market
Build Resilience Against External Risks

Long-Term Demand Outlook for MNCS
2023: Outlook for Consumers
2023: Outlook for the Public Sector
2023: Outlook for the Private Sector

Long-Term Outlook for the Operating Environment
2023: Outlook for Producer Prices
2023: Outlook for the Exchange Rate
2023: Outlook for Government Incentives

Turkey 2023: Long-Term Economic Resilience
Turkey’s Economic Sustainability
Sustainability of Government Finances
Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Banking Sector Strength
Corporate Debt
Corporate Debt Focus: Real Estate Sector
Sustainability of Consumer Debt
Domestic Political Stability
Exposure to External Shocks

Turkey 2023: Scenarios Overview
Base Case: Moderate and Volatile Growth
Downside: Sustained Slowdown
Upside: Stable Growth

Disruptors to Turkey’s Trajectory
Key Disruptors to Turkey’s Outlook
Disruptor 1: Oil Price Collapse
Disruptor 2: Oil Supply Shock
Disruptor 3: Eurozone Growth Sagnates
Disruptor 4: US Sanctions
Disruptor 5: EU Sanctions
Disruptor 6: Disputed Election Results
Disruptor 7: Kurdish Region in Syria
Disruptor 8: Economy Falls Into Crisis

Actions to take for the long term

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