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Turkey 2023: Scenarios & Outlook

  • ID: 4534268
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Middle East, North Africa, Turkey
  • 52 Pages
  • DuckerFrontier
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Prepare for Retaliatory Actions and Further Protectionism
Overview
Turkey will remain an attractive market in multinational companies’ emerging Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) portfolios in the next five years- Consumer, business, and public-sector demand will grow moderately, creating opportunities but not buoying easy revenue growth for firms-

High costs, competitive pressures, and foreign exchange volatility will be key components of the business environment- While they focus on capturing short-term opportunities in a complex operating environment, businesses must also take the necessary actions now to build the long-term resilience of their Turkey businesses-

A plethora of economic and political pressures since 2015 and the prioritization of high growth in 2017 weakened Turkey’s macroeconomic fundamentals, increasing its vulnerability to a slowdown in the economy and/or a liquidity crunch in the next five years-

What you will learn
  • What does the long-term outlook and operating environment in Turkey look like
  • Which scenarios should companies be monitoring (base-,downside-,upside cases)
  • What are the 8 disruptors every business should be prepared for
What you will receive
  • Immediate access to the 53-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases
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Executive Summary

Understanding Turkey’s Trajectory
  • Turkey Benefitted From The Last Decades
  • Economy Has Been Under Pressure Since 2015
  • The Government Boosted Growth in 2017
  • Financial Buffers Buy Turkey Time
  • MNCs Must Outperform the Market
  • Build Resilience Against External Risks
Long-Term Demand Outlook for MNCS
  • 2023: Outlook for Consumers
  • 2023: Outlook for the Public Sector
  • 2023: Outlook for the Private Sector
Long-Term Outlook for the Operating Environment
  • 2023: Outlook for Producer Prices
  • 2023: Outlook for the Exchange Rate
  • 2023: Outlook for Government Incentives
Turkey 2023: Long-Term Economic Resilience
  • Turkey’s Economic Sustainability
  • Sustainability of Government Finances
  • Monetary Policy Effectiveness
  • Banking Sector Strength
  • Corporate Debt
  • Corporate Debt Focus: Real Estate Sector
  • Sustainability of Consumer Debt
  • Domestic Political Stability
  • Exposure to External Shocks
Turkey 2023: Scenarios Overview
  • Turkey 2023: Scenarios Overview
  • Base Case: Moderate and Volatile Growth
  • Downside: Sustained Slowdown
  • Upside: Stable Growth
Disruptors to Turkey’s Trajectory
  • Key Disruptors to Turkey’s Outlook
  • Disruptor 1: Oil Price Collapse
  • Disruptor 2: Oil Supply Shock
  • Disruptor 3: Eurozone Growth Stagnates
  • Disruptor 4: US Sanctions
  • Disruptor 5: EU Sanctions
  • Disruptor 6: Disputed Election Results
  • Disruptor 7: Kurdish Region in Syria
  • Disruptor 8: Economy Falls Into Crisis
Actions to take for the long term
  • Key Actions to Take for the Long Term
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