Global Iron Ore Long-Term Outlook Q1 2018

  • ID: 4542519
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • Wood Mackenzie
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The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2040. The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR). Breakeven analysis suggests a medium term "floor price" of $50-55/t CFR but we peg our forecast above this level to reflect a committed approach to supply side discipline and value maximisation over growth.

Margin compression is inevitable but the transition towards a quality based multi-tiered pricing structure means that suppliers of high grade sinter fines and concentrates will fare relatively well, while suppliers of low grade sinter fines will need to continue offering heavy discounts.
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  • Executive summary
  • Demand update: what's changed?
  • Demand update: key swing factors
  • The pace of investment in Chinese infrastructure
  • Scrap use and Chinese EAF capacity growth
  • A global focus on productivity
  • Supply update: what's changed?
  • Supply update: key swing factors
  • Vale's strategy
  • Simandou
  • Chinese domestic iron ore production
  • Price forecast
  • Demand
  • Overview
  • Asia
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Other Asia
  • Europe
  • EU28
  • Turkey
  • CIS
  • Russian Federation
  • Ukraine
  • North America
  • United States
  • Mexico
  • Canada
  • South America
  • Brazil
  • Other South American countries
  • Africa
  • Australia
  • Middle East
  • Supply
  • Overview
  • The outlook to 2020: a further upward adjustment to exports
  • The outlook post-2020: small upward adjustment to exports
  • Key changes to global export forecast
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Asia
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • CIS
  • North America
  • South America
  • Africa
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Overview
  • Short term outlook (revised up):
  • Medium term outlook (revised down):
  • Long term outlook (no change – but positive price risk):
  • Upside risk:
  • Downside risk:
  • The Medium Term Outlook to 2020
  • What’s changed?
  • Iron ore costs and prices – the medium term view
Tables and charts

Images
  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Indian net-imports of seaborne iron ore will grow - but not until the late 2020s
  • India will never replace China as the source of global seaborne iron ore growth.
  • It will take until the late 2020's until India begins to compensate for the decline in Chinese seaborne iron ore imports.
  • Japanese steelmakers are increasing the use of pellet in the burden mix. . .
  • . . . as evidenced by a spike in imports.
  • US seaborne imports of iron ore will rise this year
  • The BoF route will remain dominant in China
  • Hot metal's share of metallic mix dips below 80% post-2030
  • Iron ore demand falls post-2020 on lower hot metal output
  • Pellet demand will outperform in long term
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Iron ore exports by country
  • Iron ore exports by company
  • Iron Ore Exports: Brazil versus Australia
  • Share of Global Exports: Brazil versus Australia
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, CFR China
  • Iron ore price vs cost of production
  • CFR China cost vs iron ore price
  • Prices need to remain low enough to discourage Chinese restarts and/or Indian exports.
  • Point of intersection
  • China's rising iron ore import dependency
  • Chinese ore production: long term forecast
  • Goan ore – a smaller share of a smaller pie.
  • India is now a relatively insignificant supplier to China.
  • Iron ore price and price differentials
  • Composition of seaborne supply
  • Iron ore lump price
  • B/F pellet price
  • Global seaborne trade in iron ore
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • long run supply "gap" - analysis
  • Incentive price analysis – selected projects only
Tables
  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Key demand forecast data
  • Demand: Table 2
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Asian exports of iron ore by country (Mt)
  • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Incentive price analysis – selected projects
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