Global Copper Short-Term Outlook March 2018

  • ID: 4542530
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • Wood Mackenzie
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The past month has seen commodity prices come under strong downside pressure. The uncertainty that is hanging over these markets follows the announcement of US import tariffs and a stronger dollar. These have taken their toll on the complex as a whole, while copper has endured further weakness as exchange stocks and production continue to rise. Strong manufacturing activity in the US, Europe and China drove global demand growth of 2.1% in 2017. Industrial activity still looks broadly supportive for another few years of healthy demand expansion however risks to our outlook are emerging.

The mine to trader market has been generally quiet during March. Concerns over copper concentrate supply disruptions appear to be easing, with new labour contracts now agreed in some high profile negotiations. Chinese smelters returned to the market later in the month, after a quiet start, and with fewer maintenance closures, bidding for material was reported to be in the low to mid-70s.
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  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Market developments
  • Demand
  • China
  • India
  • Europe
  • Supply
  • Concentrate markets
  • Blister/anode and scrap markets
  • Production news
Tables and charts

Images
  • Indexed LME cash prices and equities
  • LME cash price and 3-month spread
  • Regional exchange stocks
  • LME 3-month prices $/t
  • CFTC copper positions
  • Housing sales is a leading indicator for AC production
  • Manufacturing sector gains ground after the introduction of GST
  • European PMI
Tables
  • Copper key forecasts
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Blister market RCs
  • Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
  • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)
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