Driveline Systems for Electric Vehicle Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2020 - 2025)

The driveline systems for electric vehicles market is expected to register a CAGR of over 8.8%, during the forecast period, 2020-2025.

• The growth of the market attributable to the favorable government policies, increasing incentives, declining lifetime cost of ownership, and falling battery prices. On the other hand, a major factor hindering the market growth is the higher cost of electric and hybrid driveline, when compared to the conventional driveline.
• The developments and improvements in the AWD system and its penetration into the growing electric vehicles market are the other major factors that are anticipated to propel the growth of the market study during the forecast period.
• E-axles and differentials are used in a driveline as the end components, in order to transmit motor power to wheels. E-axle reduces weight and improves the efficiency of electric vehicles. Although the market for e-axle is at a nascent stage, it is expected to attract attention among manufacturers in the future.

Key Market Trends

Driving Demand from Automatic Vehicle Driveline Systems

In the automotive industry, the demand for automatic transmission has been experiencing a positive growth, since 1980. Ease of driving has been a major factor for automatic transmission, which helped to capture a significant market share of more than 30%, in the global automotive transmission system market in 2017.

• The automatic transmission system has been offering various speed ranges. Earlier, automatic transmission was mainly of three-speed, and with the technological advancements in the field, four-speed was introduced and became common during the 1980s. Since 2000s, six-speed and eight-speed automatic transmissions have become popular in the automotive industry.
• In 2017, the automotive industry witnessed numerous launches of 9-speed and 10-speed automatic transmission vehicle models, and is expected to witness a consistent growth in the future, due to the growing competition among automakers to offer improved driveline systems, along with the necessity to adhere to the fuel economy standards set by both governments and automotive organizations.

Among the global regions, North America witnessed the highest market demand for automatic transmission systems.

With the growing focus on fuel efficiency and environmental concerns, automatic transmission manufacturers have been developing and updating the system with high-speed transmission, torque converter with improved mechanical lockup, and neutral idle control features. In order to meet the increasing demand for automatic transmission system in the future, major manufacturers have started expanding their AT production capacity.

For instance, in 2018, Aisin AI Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of Aisin Seiki Co. Ltd, formulated plans to expand its Kira Plant to produce and complete the assembly of AT units, along with its earlier MT production. The company plans to invest about USD 102 million for the plant expansion and the production of eight-speed automatic transmission units, and is expected to start functioning by November 2019 with 400,000 units per year. Also, the company is planning to reach the manufacturing capacity of AT to 13.2 million units in 2020.

Increasing Electric Car Sales in the APAC and Europe Driving the Market

The electric vehicles market has witnessed a healthy growth in the recent years, in terms of the number of vehicles sold, which was 890,470 in 2012, and reached ~ 2.1 million units in 2018. This spike in sales is attributable to the regulatory norms imposed by various organizations and governments to control emission levels and propagate zero-emission vehicles.

This has forced automakers to increase their expenditure on R&D of electric vehicles, which eventually allowed them to market electric vehicles as the future. This strategy had a strong impact on people, as there was a considerable change in the purchase pattern from conventional IC engine vehicles to electric vehicles. The change has not decreased the sales of IC engine vehicles, but rather created a promising market for electric vehicles in the present, as well as for the future.

Governments across the world have initiated various schemes and initiatives, which encourage a buyer to choose electric vehicles over conventional vehicles. California ZEV program, which aims at having 1.5 million electric vehicles on road by 2025, is one such initiative that promotes the purchase of electric vehicles. Countries, like India, China, United Kingdom, Korea, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, etc., are other such countries that have various incentives for people willing to buy an electric vehicle.

The growth of electric vehicles is anticipated to increase the demand for driveline systems.

Competitive Landscape

Some of the major players in the driveline systems for electric vehicles include Robert Bosch, GKN, BorgWarner, Denso Corporation, Toyota Motor Corporation, etc., consistently working to improve their driveline systems to sustain in the increasing demand for lightweight and high-efficiency driveline systems for electric vehicles among automakers.

Automakers are planning to increase their R&D expenditure of electric vehicles, due to a consistent demand pattern for conventional IC engine vehicles. Therefore, the electric vehicle manufacturers are focusing on raising awareness among customers about electric vehicles, through their continuous marketing strategies, aiming to meet the standards set by the governments and other associations.

During April 2018, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) and Liuzhou Wuling Automobile Industry Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of Guangxi Automobile Group Co. Ltd, entered a joint venture to manufacture driveline systems.

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