Georgia Country Report - June, 2018 - Product Image

Georgia Country Report - June, 2018

  • ID: 4557844
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Georgia
  • 42 Pages
  • Emerging Markets Direct
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Georgia, the small South Caucasus country of 3.9mn, expanded by 6.5% y/y in April. This is an acceleration compared to the first quarter of the year; the first four months of the year saw average growth estimated at 5.5% y/y, with the April estimate dragging the average up. The expansion in April was driven by a rise in activity in manufacturing, transport, real estate and trade, and "other community, social and personal service activities".

The economy achieved 5% growth in 2017. The Georgian economy has bounced back from several years of slow growth across 2015-2016, when a depressed economic environment in the region and low oil prices indirectly impacted its performance. Multilateral development banks all expect the country's GDP growth to exceed 4% in the near-term, up from 2.7-2.8% in 2015-2016.

The growth spurt was prompted by a flurry of domestic and foreign investments in construction, retail, infrastructure and real estate amidst a recovery in consumption levels and an increase in inbound tourism. However, structural imbalances continue to plague Georgia's macroeconomy, most notably its large trade deficit, which is financed partly with external borrowing, and its unpredictable currency, the exchange rate of which has varied widely.

Georgia's foreign trade deficit inched upwards to $5.25bn in 2017, up from $5.18bn in 2016, and by 17.5% y/y to $1.34bn in the first quarter of 2018. Imports continue to dwarf exports, at $2.8218bn in April compared to exports of just $961.4mn.

Reducing the foreign trade and overall current account deficit has been an ongoing concern in Tbilisi. An oil and gas-importing country, Georgia has struggled to expand its manufacturing base enough to make up for its sizeable energy imports and for its imports of higher added-value goods.

Meanwhile, consumer prices grew 2.5% y/y in April but fell slightly in monthly terms, compared to the 2.8% registered in March. The numbers are the lowest recorded monthly CPI levels seen in Georgia since December 2016. April's inflation levels are well within the government's target rate of 5% for 2018.

On the political front, thousands of protesters angered by officials’ handling of the murders of two teenagers gathered in central Tbilisi on May 31 and June 1. Accusing law enforcers of covering up for the murderers, they initially rallied outside the prosecutor general’s office, but later moved on to the parliament where they demanded the resignation of the entire government.

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1.0 Executive summary

2.0 Politics
2.1 Protests over murdered teenager gather momentum in Georgia
2.2 Georgia to sever diplomatic relations with Syria in protest at recognition of breakaway regions
2.3 US "working on" Georgia’s Nato accession
2.4 Closing evidence heard at European court of human rights over Georgia and Russia’s 2008 conflict
2.5 Democracy in Armenia and Georgia deteriorated slightly in 2017, Freedom House concludes
2.6 Polls & Sociology

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
3.2 Macro outlook

4.0 Real Economy
4.1 Industrial production
4.2 Inflation
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
4.2.2 PPI dynamic
4.3 Fixed investment
4.4 Labour and income
4.4.1 Unemployment, income dynamics
4.4.2 Retail sector dynamics

5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 Balance of payments, current account
5.1.1 Import/export dynamics
5.1.2 Current account dynamics
5.1.3 Capital flows
5.1.4 Gross international reserves
5.2 FTA
5.3 FDI

6.0 Public Sector
6.1 Budget
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - funding, privatization
6.2 Debt

7.0 FX

8.0 Financial & capital markets
8.1 Bank sector overview
8.1.1 Earnings
8.1.2 Loans
8.1.3 NPLs
8.1.4 Banks specific issues
8.1.5 Bank news
8.2 Central Bank policy rate
8.3 Stock market
8.4 International ratings
8.5 Fixed income
8.5.1 Fixed income - bond news

9.0 Industry & Sectors
9.1 Sector news
9.1.1 Oil & gas sector news
9.1.2 Transport sector news
9.1.3 Construction sector news
9.1.4 Tourism sector news
9.1.5 TMT sector news
9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
9.1.7 Renewable energy sector news
9.2 Major corporate news
9.2.1 Oil & gas corporate news
9.2.2 Transport corporate news
9.2.3 Metallurgy & mining corporate news

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