Country Risk Service Austria 3rd Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4591412
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Austria
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign rating remained at A in The Economist Intelligence Unit's April report, and the score improved by 1 point, to 21. We expect the public debt/GDP ratio to continue declining gradually in the coming years, after having peaked at 84.6% in 2015, as the government budget remains in a modest deficit, despite more robust economic growth. Risks stemming from the banking sector have decreased. The funding position is strong, underpinned by the low interest-rate environment.

The rating remained at A. A better economic and institutional outlook for the euro zone has increased its resilience to political risk and external shocks, while structural support for the currency comes from a large current-account surplus. We expect the euro to average US$1.21:EUR1 in 2018-19, after averaging US$1.13:EUR1 in 2017.

Banking sector risk remained rated at A. Risks stemming from the banking sector have decreased, in part owing to a settlement between the government and the creditors of a "bad bank", Heta Asset Resolution, in late 2016. This is in line with a broader strengthening of the banking system in recent years, including financial soundness indicators catching up with regional peers.
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Country Risk Service Austria 3rd Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2018-22: Political stability

Central scenario for 2018-22: Election watch

Central scenario for 2018-22: International relations

Central scenario for 2018-22: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2018-22: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2018-22: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2018-22: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2018-22: Inflation

Central scenario for 2018-22: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2018-22: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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