Pancreatic Cancer: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast to 2026

  • ID: 4601488
  • Report
  • 225 pages
  • GlobalData
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  • ARMO Biosciences
  • Boston Biomedical
  • Eli Lilly
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Pancreatic Cancer: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast to 2026

Summary

Pancreatic cancer is set to become the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the US in 2020 after lung cancer, despite accounting for only 3% of new cancer diagnoses. Patients with advanced pancreatic cancer have a median survival of approximately 2.8-5.7 months, even in light of recent therapeutic innovations and elucidation of fundamental biological mechanisms of the disease. In the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) approximately two-thirds of patients are diagnosed with unresectable Stage III or Stage IV metastatic disease, and a significant proportion of respectable Stage III disease (85%) progresses to metastatic pancreatic cancer.

Since 2013, the FDA and European Medicines Agency (EMA) have approved Celgene’s Abraxane (nab-paclitaxel), followed by Ipsen’s Onivyde (irinotecan liposome injection). On the one hand, the addition of these novel therapeutic agents to existing regimens provides renewed hope to improve the treatment outcomes of patients with pancreatic cancer. On the other hand though, the pancreatic cancer field is littered with numerous clinical trial failures and successful readouts are notably sparse. In 2016, five Phase III agents were discontinued from development, exacerbating the aridity of a barren pancreatic cancer pipeline. However, there are general grounds for optimism as the therapeutic landscape is being transformed by novel frontline combination regimens as well as concrete options beyond this, for cases of disease progression. The integration of second-line therapy into the treatment algorithm of advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma requires refinement in order to become an essential strategic component against the disease.

Key Questions Answered
  • What are the key drivers behind the uptake and sustained dominance of Abraxane in the pancreatic cancer space, and what are the prevailing trends regarding its use over the forecast period?
  • The pancreatic cancer market is characterized by a number of unmet needs. What are the main unmet needs in this market? Will the pipeline drugs under development fulfil these unmet needs?
  • What impact will label expansion of advanced treatments into the lucrative adjuvant setting and targeted therapies into the front-line setting have?
Scope
  • Overview of pancreatic cancer, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized pancreatic cancer therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, treatment usage patterns in five patient segments, and forecasts from 2016 to 2026.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the pancreatic cancer therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for pancreatic cancer. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global pancreatic cancer market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global pancreatic cancer market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global pancreatic cancer market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • AB Science
  • ARMO Biosciences
  • Boston Biomedical
  • Eli Lilly
  • Janssen
  • NuCana
  • MORE
1 Table of Contents

2 Pancreatic Cancer: Executive Summary
2.1 Modest Growth in the Pancreatic Cancer Market Expected from 2016-2026
2.2 Reformulation Strategies and Second-Generation Products Used by Companies to Preserve or Establish Market Dominance
2.3 High Unmet Needs Exist in Pancreatic Cancer, Particularly for Patients with Poor Performance Status
2.4 High Commercial Opportunity for Metastatic and Adjuvant Treatments that Improve Survival Outcomes
2.5 Late-Stage Pipeline Agents to Have Moderate Impact on the Future Pancreatic Cancer Landscape
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Etiology
4.1.2 Pathophysiology
4.2 Classification or Staging Systems
4.3 Symptoms
4.4 Prognosis
4.5 Quality of Life

5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.3.1 Incidence
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.4.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs)
5.4.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs) by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis
5.4.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer
5.4.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations
5.4.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs) by Other Mutations
5.4.8 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer (Excluding PNETs)
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Pancreatic Cancer (2016-2026)
5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer
5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer
5.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis
5.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer
5.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations
5.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Other Mutations
5.5.8 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Current Treatment Options
6.1 Overview
6.2 Diagnosis and Treatment
6.2.1 Diagnosis
6.2.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs
6.3 Clinical Practice
6.4 Abraxane (nab-paclitaxel)
6.4.1 Overview
6.4.2 Efficacy
6.4.3 Safety
6.4.4 SWOT Analysis
6.5 Tarceva (erlotinib)
6.5.1 Overview
6.5.2 Efficacy
6.5.3 Safety
6.5.4 SWOT Analysis
6.6 TS-1 (gimeracil + oteracil + tegafur)
6.6.1 Overview
6.6.2 Efficacy
6.6.3 Safety
6.6.4 SWOT Analysis
6.7 Onivyde (liposomal irinotecan)
6.7.1 Overview
6.7.2 Efficacy
6.7.3 Safety
6.7.4 SWOT Analysis
6.8 Sutent (sunitinib malate)
6.8.1 Overview
6.8.2 Efficacy
6.8.3 Safety
6.8.4 SWOT Analysis
6.9 Gemcitabine
6.9.1 Overview
6.9.2 Efficacy
6.9.3 Safety
6.10 Other Therapeutic Classes

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Improved Frontline Regimens, Particularly in Advanced Patients with Poor Performance Status
7.2.1 Unmet Need
7.2.2 Gap Analysis
7.2.3 Opportunity
7.3 Effective Adjuvant Treatments and Improved Patient Care
7.3.1 Unmet Need
7.3.2 Gap Analysis
7.3.3 Opportunity
7.4 Earlier Diagnosis of Disease
7.4.1 Unmet Need
7.4.2 Gap Analysis
7.4.3 Opportunity
7.5 Targeted Therapies and Predictive Biomarkers
7.5.1 Unmet Need
7.5.2 Gap Analysis
7.5.3 Opportunity
7.6 Treatment Options for Second-Line Metastatic Patients
7.6.1 Unmet Need
7.6.2 Gap Analysis
7.6.3 Opportunity

8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview of R&D Strategies
8.1.1 Reformulation Strategies and Second-Generation Products
8.1.2 Risk-Mitigation Strategies in Drug Development in Pancreatic Cancer for Small- to Medium-Sized Companies
8.1.3 Indication Expansion and Sequencing
8.2 Clinical Trials Design
8.2.1 Optimal Primary Endpoints Reappraised in the Metastatic and Adjuvant Settings
8.2.2 Gemcitabine + Abraxane Combination: Backbone Therapy and Standard Active Comparator for First-Line Metastatic Trials
8.2.3 Slow Clinical Trial Accrual Rates and Use of Early Determinants of Response

9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
9.3 Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa (PEGPH20)
9.3.1 Overview
9.3.2 Efficacy
9.3.3 Safety
9.3.4 SWOT Analysis
9.4 Imbruvica (ibrutinib)
9.4.1 Overview
9.4.2 Efficacy
9.4.3 Safety
9.4.4 SWOT Analysis
9.5 Napabucasin (BBI608)
9.5.1 Overview
9.5.2 Efficacy
9.5.3 Safety
9.5.4 SWOT Analysis
9.6 Lynparza (olaparib)
9.6.1 Overview
9.6.2 Efficacy
9.6.3 Safety
9.6.4 SWOT Analysis
9.7 Acelarin (NUC-1031)
9.7.1 Overview
9.7.2 Efficacy
9.7.3 Safety
9.7.4 SWOT Analysis
9.8 Masiviera (masitinib)
9.8.1 Overview
9.8.2 Efficacy
9.8.3 Safety
9.8.4 SWOT Analysis
9.9 Pegilodecakin (AM0010)
9.9.1 Overview
9.9.2 Efficacy
9.9.3 Safety
9.9.4 SWOT Analysis
9.10 Glufosfamide
9.10.1 Overview
9.10.2 Efficacy
9.10.3 Safety
9.10.4 SWOT Analysis
9.11 TLP0-001
9.11.1 Overview
9.11.2 Efficacy
9.11.3 Safety
9.11.4 SWOT Analysis
9.12 Innovative Early Stage Approaches
9.13 Other Drugs in Development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs
10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs
10.3 Competitive Assessment
10.3.1 Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa Competitive Assessment
10.3.2 Imbruvica Competitive Assessment
10.3.3 Napabucasin Competitive Assessment
10.3.4 Lynparza Competitive Assessment
10.3.5 Acelarin Competitive Assessment
10.3.6 Pegilodecakin Competitive Assessment
10.3.7 Glufosfamide Competitive Assessment
10.3.8 TLP0-001 Competitive Assessment
10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast
10.4.1 US
10.4.2 5EU
10.4.3 Japan

11 Appendix
11.1 Bibliography
11.2 Abbreviations
11.3 Methodology
11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients
11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
11.3.4 Drugs Included
11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions
11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions
11.3.8 Generic Erosion
11.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
11.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
11.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
11.6 About the Authors
11.6.1 Analysts
11.6.2 Therapy Area Director
11.6.3 Epidemiologist
11.6.4 Reviewer
11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
11.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
11.7 About
11.8 Contact
11.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Pancreatic Cancer: Key Metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Selected Genetic Syndromes with Associated Pancreatic Cancer Risk
Table 3: AJCC TNM Classification System for Pancreatic Cancer
Table 4: AJCC TNM Staging System for Pancreatic Cancer
Table 5: Common Pancreatic Cancer Symptoms
Table 6: Risk Factors for Pancreatic Cancer
Table 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer, Ages =15 Years, N, Both Sexes, Select Years 2016-2026
Table 8: Imaging Methods Used For Pancreatic Cancer Staging
Table 9: Treatment Guidelines for Disease Pancreatic Cancer
Table 10: Most Commonly Used Regimens for Pancreatic Cancer in the 7MM
Table 11: Product Profile - Abraxane
Table 12: Abraxane SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 13: Product Profile - Tarceva (erlotinib)
Table 14: Tarceva (erlotinib) SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 15: Product Profile - TS-1 (gimeracil + oteracil + tegafur)
Table 16: Efficacy Results of the Phase III JASPAC 01 Trial
Table 17: Efficacy Results of the Phase III GEST Trial
Table 18: Safety Results of the Phase III JASPAC 01 Trial
Table 19: TS-1 SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 20: Product Profile - Onivyde (liposomal irinotecan)
Table 21: Efficacy Results of the Phase III NAPOLI-1 Trial
Table 22: Safety Results of the Phase III NAPOLI-1 Trial
Table 23: Onivyde SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 25: Product Profile - Sutent (sunitinib malate)
Table 26: Efficacy Results of the Phase II PACT-12 Trial
Table 27: Sutent SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 24: Product Profile -Gemcitabine
Table 28: Summary of Other Commonly Used Chemotherapy Regimens in Pancreatic Cancer, 2018
Table 29: Recently Completed and Ongoing Clinical Trials in the Adjuvant Setting in Pancreatic Cancer
Table 30: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Pancreatic Cancer, 2016-2026
Table 31: Product Profile - Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa
Table 32: Efficacy Results of the Phase II HALO-202 Study
Table 33: Safety Results of the Phase II HALO-202 Trial
Table 34: Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 35: Product Profile - Imbruvica
Table 36: Imbruvica SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 37: Product Profile - Napabucasin
Table 38: Safety Results of Napabucasin + Gemcitabine + Abraxane
Table 39: Napabucasin SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 40: Product Profile - Lynparza
Table 41: Efficacy of Lynparza in Heavily Treated Pancreatic Cancer
Table 42: Safety of Lynparza in Heavily Treated Pancreatic Cancer
Table 43: Lynparza SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 44: Product Profile - Acelarin
Table 45: Acelarin SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 46: Product Profile - Masiviera
Table 47: Efficacy of Masiviera + Gemcitabine in Treatment-Naïve PDAC
Table 48: Safety of Masiviera + Gemcitabine in Treatment-Naïve PDAC
Table 49: Masiviera SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 50: Product Profile - Pegilodecakin
Table 51: Efficacy of Pegilodecakin + FOLFOX in 2L PDAC
Table 52: Safety of Pegilodecakin + FOLFOX in 2L PDAC
Table 53: Pegilodecakin SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 54: Product Profile - Glufosfamide
Table 55: Safety of Glufosfamide + BSC in Metastatic PDAC After a 1L Gemcitabine-Containing Regimen
Table 56: Glufosfamide SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 57: Product Profile - TLP0-001
Table 58: TLP0-001 SWOT Analysis, 2018
Table 59: Innovative Early Stage Approaches Involving Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Pancreatic Cancer, 2018
Table 60: Innovative Early Stage Approaches for Pancreatic Cancer, 2018
Table 61: Other Drugs in Development for Pancreatic Cancer, 2018
Table 62: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Pancreatic Cancer (Pegvorhyaluronidase Alfa, Napabucasin, and Lynparza)
Table 63: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Pancreatic Cancer (Imbruvica, Acelarin, and Pegilodecakin)
Table 64: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Pancreatic Cancer (Glufosfamide and TLP0-001)
Table 65: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Pancreatic Cancer (Pegvorhyaluronidase Alfa, Napabucasin, and Lynparza)
Table 66: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Pancreatic Cancer (Imbruvica, Acelarin, and Pegilodecakin)
Table 67: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Pancreatic Cancer (Glufosfamide and TLP0-001)
Table 68: Key Events Impacting Sales for Pancreatic Cancer, 2016-2026
Table 69: Pancreatic Cancer Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2016-2026
Table 70: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Pancreatic Cancer
Table 71: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Pancreatic Cancer
Table 72: High-Prescribing Physicians (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Pancreatic Cancer in 2016 and 2026
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Abraxane
Figure 3: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer (Cases per 100,000 Population), Men, Ages =15 Years, 2006 to 2026
Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer (Cases per 100,000 Population), Women, Ages =15 Years, 2006 to 2026
Figure 5: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used for Relative Survival Proportions to Forecast the Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis
Figure 8: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 9: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations
Figure 10: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Other Mutations
Figure 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016
Figure 12: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016
Figure 13: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016
Figure 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Cancer Stages at Diagnosis, Both Sexes, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016
Figure 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Familial Pancreatic Cancer by Germline Mutations, Both Sexes, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016 to 2026
Figure 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer by Other Mutations, Both Sexes, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016 to 2026
Figure 17: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Pancreatic Cancer, Both Sexes, Ages =15 Years, N, 2016
Figure 18: Treatment Algorithm for Resectable and Borderline Resectable Disease
Figure 19: Treatment Algorithm for Locally Advanced Unresectable and Metastatic Disease
Figure 20: Abraxane’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 21: TS-1’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 22: Onivyde’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 23: Unmet Need and Opportunity in Pancreatic Cancer, 2018
Figure 24: Overview of the Development Pipeline in PDAC
Figure 25: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that the author Expects be Licensed for PDAC in the 7MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 26: Pegvorhyaluronidase alfa’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 27: Imbruvica’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 28: Napabucasin’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 29: Lynparza’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 30: Acelarin’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 31: Masiviera’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 32: Pegilodecakin’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 33: Glufosfamide’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 34: TLP0-001’s Development in Pancreatic Cancer
Figure 35: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Abraxane
Figure 36: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Pancreatic Cancer in 2016 and 2026
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  • AB Science
  • AbbVie
  • Amgen
  • ARMO Biosciences
  • Astellas
  • AstraZeneca
  • Boston Biomedical
  • Celgene
  • Eleison Pharmaceuticals
  • Eli Lilly
  • Halozyme
  • Ipsen
  • Janssen
  • Merck & Co.
  • Merrimack Pharmaceuticals
  • NuCana
  • Roche
  • Sumitomo Dainippon
  • Taiho Pharmaceuticals
  • Tella Inc
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