This study provides a deep dive into the fundamentals of the emerging US organic soybean market, as well as touches on the non-GMO soybean market. Using original analysis and research, and drawing from USDA reports, the study provides the most comprehensive estimate to the organic supply and demand balance and an updated estimate to organic soybean acreage. The study compares the nuances of the organic corn market as compared to the conventional market in terms of production, net imports, end use, total supply/use balance, and price analytics. Use this analysis to gain a better understanding of the drivers of growth in organic soybean demand, and to understand the changing dynamics of the industry to inform strategic supply chain and market research-based decisions.
Organic soybean production saw double-digit growth in 2017, despite declining yields. US organic soybean production is estimated to have expanded 27% year-over-year (y/y), supported by a 36% increase in area.
Yields are estimated to have fallen 7% y/y in 2017 following record high yields in 2016/17. Despite achieving another year of double-digit growth, US organic soybean supplies are projected to be insufficient over the 2017/18 marketing year, as the flow of organic soybean imports has slowed significantly. Over the 2017/18 marketing year the author expects US organic soybean imports to reach 15.1 million bushels, up only 1% y/y. US soybean meal imports are escalating in place of whole bean imports, with organic soybean meal imports projected to reach 188,405 short tons.
Even with the 71% y/y growth in soybean meal imports, US organic soybean supplies are expected to struggle to keep pace with growing livestock demand. Growth in organic livestock feed demand is projected to push organic soybean crushing for meal production up 35% y/y, reaching 24.2 million bushels.
The escalation in organic livestock feed demand has resulted in a projected organic soybean supply deficit for the 2017/18 marketing year. Currently, the author projects organic livestock demand will result in a 2.1 million bushel supply deficit.
The author is aware that a negative supply expectation for the end of the 2017/18 marketing year is not realistic. However, this conclusion is a refection of carefully considered supply and demand expectations based on available market information.
Section 1: Executive Summary
Section 2: US Soybean Market Background
- Trends in US Soybean Acres
- Trends in US Soybean Use
Section 3: Organic Soybean Acres
- USDA Certified Organic Soybean Acres Estimate
- Certified Organic Soybean Acres Estimate
Section 4: Organic Soybean Yields and Production
- 2017/18 Organic Soybean Overview
- Organic Soybean Yields
- Organic Soybean Production
Section 5: Organic Soybean Trade
- US Organic Soybean Trade Background
- US 2017/18 Organic Soybean Import Outlook
Section 6: Organic Soybean Use by Sector
- USDA NASS Livestock Inventories
- High Protein Consuming Animal Unit Estimates
- Soybeans for Animal Food Demand
- Organic Soybean Food Use and Residual Disappearance
Section 7: Organic Soybean Prices
- Organic to Conventional Soybean Price Premium
- Organic Food-grade to Feed-grade Soybean Price Premium
- Organic Soybean Price Outlook
Section 8: US Non-GMO Soybean Acreage
- US Non-GMO Soybeans Acres Historical Trend
- US Non-GMO Soybeans Acres Planted by State