This study provides a deep dive into the fundamentals of the emerging US organic wheat market. Using original analysis and research, and drawing from USDA reports, the study provides the most comprehensive estimate to the organic supply and demand balance and an updated estimate to organic wheat acreage. The study compares the nuances of the wheat market as compared to the conventional market in terms of production, net imports, end use, total supply/use balance, and price analytics. Use this analysis to gain a better understanding of the drivers of growth in organic wheat demand, and to understand the changing dynamics of the industry to inform strategic supply chain and market research-based decisions.
In 2017 organic wheat production achieved another year of double-digit expansion, despite lower yields. Domestic winter wheat production expanded an estimated 14% year over year (y/y), supported by a 22% increase in area. Durum production is estimated to have fallen in 2017 as widespread drought in key durum-producing states deeply impacted yields. The author estimates 2017 durum production declined 31% y/y to 475,000 bushels. Throughout the remainder of the 2017/18 wheat marketing year, US organic wheat supplies are expected to receive additional support from 6% more durum wheat imports, primarily from Canada.
Growth in livestock feed demand is expected to push wheat animal feed use up 34% y/y, outpacing the 10% growth in total organic wheat production. As a result, despite greater imports and the 1.5 million bushels of additional production estimated for the 2017/18 marketing year, the author estimates the supply of wheat for food use and residual disappearance will reach 8.8 million bushels, down 7% y/y.
Section 1: Executive Summary
Section 2: US Wheat Market Background
- Trends in U.S. Wheat Acres
- Wheat Varieties
Section 3: Organic Wheat Acres
- USDA Certified Organic Wheat Acres Estimate
- Certified Organic Wheat Acres Estimate
Section 4: Organic Wheat Production
- 2017/18 Organic Wheat Overview
- Organic Wheat Yields by Variety
- Organic Wheat Production by Variety
- Organic Wheat Production by State
Section 5: Organic Wheat Trade
Section 6: Organic Wheat Use by Sector
- USDA NASS Livestock Inventories
- Grain Consuming Animal Unit Estimates
- Wheat for Animal Feed Demand
- Organic Food Use and Residual Use Disappearance
Section 7: Organic Wheat Prices