Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4607504
  • Report
  • Region: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 13 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Mobile data services will drive mobile service revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2018 and 2023, but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue."

This report analyses the most important trends and drivers that are affecting mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. It includes country views for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of mobile KPIs for SSA and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Data coverage

Mobile connections

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Who Should Read this Report

  • Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators in SSA.
  • Regulatory bodies in SSA.
  • Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so.
  • Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the mobile telecoms market in SSA.
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Chapter No. 
5. Executive summary
6. Service revenue will grow at a 2. 7% CAGR during 2016-2022 to USD45. 2 billion amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD857 billion in 2022
9. Regional trends
10. Mobile data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
11. Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition -but growth will slow down
12. 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 11. 7% of mobile connections in 2022
13. South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2022 -at 31. 3% and 73. 6%, respectively
14. Mobile connectivity has been central to tablet adoption, but substitution from smartphones and Wi-Fi will increase
15. Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries in SSA
16. Improved network coverage, affordability of smartphones and price
17. Country-level trends
18. Ghana: Non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in terms of SIMs
19. Kenya: Demand for data and mobile financial services will encourage the continued growth of connections and revenue
20. Nigeria: Strong subscriber growth against the backdrop of weak economic outlook which will impact consumer spend
21. South Africa: The release of LTE spectrum will improve competition while economic difficulties will weaken demand
22. Tanzania: Rising smartphone take-up, 700MHz auction spectrum and mobile money will support revenue growth
23. Uganda: The shift from voice to data usage will be accompanied by revenue growth, despite low adoption of 4G
24. About the author

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in the Sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide, 2012-2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 4: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2022
Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 12: Data traffic (MB) and revenue per gigabyte, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Ghana, 2012-2022
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2012-2022
Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kenya, 2012-2022
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2012-2022
Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2012-2022
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2012-2022
Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2012-2022
Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2012-2022
Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2012-2022
Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Uganda, 2012-2022
Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2012-2022
Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda

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  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
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