Many are afraid of volatility on the oil market. Now prices very quickly recoil to 30 dollars per barrel, now they push the 80 dollar mark. Total chaos dominates forecasts by leading Western analysts. Some predict prices at 100, while others their forthcoming collapse.
Who is right?
NESF has also decided to ask the one-billion-dollar question: how much oil will cost and what factors influence oil prices in reality.
From the new research paper you will learn:
What has a stronger influence on prices: the physical oil market or speculative factors
- Which of them should be paid maximum attention to
How the OPEC+ deal works
- Why the Saudis needed it
- Whether the deal has achieved its aim of reducing oil stores
- How speculators react to news about the deal
Demand for oil and petroleum products
- Demand dynamics and regional structure
- How demand for oil in a country should be counted and what pitfalls exist here
- Analysis of the domestic market in the US and in China, the largest users of oil
Difficulties of statistical analysis
- Why everyone evaluates the current situation on the global market differently
What one is to expect from America
- How oil production in the US will change and how this will affect global prices
- Manipulation of WTI prices
Saudi Arabia’s strategies
- Whether there should be withdrawal from the OPEC+ deal
- What prices should one get ready for
A medium-term forecast of developments
Introduction. Factors affecting oil market pricing
Stored oil reserves: formal criterion of achieving OPEC+ deal objective
Demand for oil: global trend or statistical speculation?
- Current demand data and historic changes in forecasts. Structure of demand for petroleum products: market expectations
What country demand for oil is: difference in calculation methodology shown using examples of US and Chinese oil balances
- Refining margins as missing factor in demand/supply models
Supply side: difference in methodology or manipulation of market?
US shale oil production as a result of fashion for petrodollars. Evaluation of american independent operators’ viability
Formal contribution of cartel to OPEC+ deal
Change of maximum production capacity in OPEC countries
OPEC export policy: who is the real market maker?
- Dynamics of export from OPEC & non-OPEC countries: how oil supply to physical market changed
- Saudi Arabia’s invariably leading role on oil market
- Balances aside: mechanisms of real fight for key markets
Speculators in market: how critical situation is
Medium-term forecast of developments. What is in store for OPEC+ deal?
Appendix 1: profit/loss from storing oil in tankers under circumstances of contango in 2015-2017
Appendix 2: US crude oil export and import by locations
Appendix 3: structure of crude oil import into China
Appendix 4: classification of crudes by quality
Unit conversion table