This report remains upbeat on the long-term prospects for the CSeries, despite initial difficulties with the program. The 787 experienced much more challenging difficulties, and has emerged as a viable and successful program. The CSeries will recover from its initial delays as well.
The program is gaining momentum from Air Canada and Delta orders. Combined with the confidence of the Quebec government that has invested in the program and expects a positive return on investment, the CSeries program appears poised to turn the corner. But additional orders will be required to turn the program around, and the new management team must execute its new strategy of gaining key customers in the Americas, Europe, and Asia to generate the success it requires.
While the jury remains out, the performance of the aircraft is superb, and with an uneventful EIS, should provide customers the confidence and incentive needed to place further orders. Those orders will need to be garnered during a period in which order levels have been decreasing for the industry amidst increasing economic uncertainty.
A smooth entry into service with Swiss will be critical for the success of the program. Bombardier and Swiss have been carefully planning EIS for some time, and it appears that all of the key elements are in place for success. The Author believe that the CSeries will still be successful, despite prior missteps.
This report projects sales of between 1,900 and 2,400 CSeries aircraft over the next 20 years. There is a large replacement market to be filled, as well as new demand that should generate more than 5,500 orders in the 100-150 seat class. The Author believes Bombardier and Embraer will dominate the orders in that segment, as their offerings are economically superior to those from Airbus and Boeing.
The new management team’s strategy appears to be working. Despite the myriad of missed opportunities, the new team understands how to build, sell and support the CSeries. The aircraft, which is technologically more advanced than its competition, should be the “right aircraft” for a number of airlines if aggressively marketed, which the new management team is undertaking.
I. Executive Summary
- An Uphill Climb
- Superb Technology
- The Market And Changing Requirements
- Overcoming Adversity
- Changing Market Realities
- Competing Against Airbus And Boeing
- A Dormant Or Disappearing Market?
- Assessing The Program At EIS
- The Good
- The Bad
- The Ugly
- The Road Forward
II. The Recovery - Feasible And Underway
- A New Management Team
- A New Strategy
- Timing Is Critical
- A Promising Outlook
- Strategic Directions
- Economics: Still Leading The Pack
- Comparative Economics
- Operating Economics
- How We Built Our Economic Assumptions
- Fuel Cost
- Maintenance Cost
- Crew Cost
- Landing, Navigation, Terminal And Environmental Fees
IV. How Bombardier Stumbled
- Program Delays
- The Pricing Issue
- Airbus Reacts
- Management Changes
- Disturbing The Duopoly
- Changing Market Dynamics
- Upsizing To Compete More Effectively
- Marketing Missteps
V. Markets: In Or Between Sweetspots
VI. Outlook For The Program
- Oil Prices Impact The Market
- Competitive Environment Is Changing
- Orders And Deliveries For 100-149 Seat Aircraft
- Growth And Replacement
- Provincial Investment
- Market Opportunities
- Future-Proof: The Potential Impact Of A Stretched Cs500