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Estimating Required Thermal Power Plant Capacity by 2030: How Much Thermal Capacity does India Require to Cater to its Base Load?

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  • 130 Pages
  • October 2018
  • Region: India
  • InfraInsights
  • ID: 4659339

The Circa 350 GW of Installed Power Capacity is Easily Expected to Double in Next 5-7 years

The demand for power has been showing signs of stagnation and over the past 2-3 years, many industry experts are revising the power capacity requirement projections downwards, this sighting the exhaustion seen on the power demand side. There was news, stating that India wouldn’t require new power plants for the next 3 years, some went to the extent stating “India to halt building new coal plants in 2022”.

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA), made a statement that:

“India does not need any more coal-based power units till 2027”

However, all these statements need to clearly understand that thermal power plants are an essential component in the overall portfolio and it caters to the base load part of the demand in the load curve. Renewable energy is slated to reach 220 GW + by 2022 and if the hypothesis is that this capacity is likely to completely replace demand for the new thermal power plant, then it’s an incorrect hypothesis. Renewable Energy is an intermittent source of energy and unless energy storage piece of the renewable puzzle is cracked, it’s impossible to meet 100% demand for power through renewable energy. Till the time the energy storage solutions become mature, one will have to continue to depend on thermal power plants.

India is a fast-growing economy and boasts of one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The economy is slated to grow in the range of 8-10% and this growth will be mirrored in the power sector in the form of demand for power. The circa 350 GW of installed power capacity is easily expected to double in the next 5-7 years, this due to an increase in demand for power that will be driven by hyper-growth in consumerism in the country. The demand for white goods is expected to see the growth that it hasn’t yet seen, this on the backdrop of increasing consumerism and electrified portion of the population getting access to electricity. The industrial activity is expected to further fuel the demand for power, driven by several factors including urbanization and industrialization, which are linked. India’s population is moving from rural areas to urban areas in great numbers, driving up energy demand in cities. Energy-intensive industries, such as steel, cement, plastics, aluminum, and paper, play a large role in India’s industrialization.

This research report “Estimating Required Thermal Power Plant Capacity by 2030: How Much Thermal Capacity does India require to cater to its baseload?” aims to answer the key question on what is the additional thermal power capacity that India will have to add over the next 5 to 10 years. The report will be the outcome of intensive data modeling exercise, which will estimate the overall demand-supply scenario and the required power capacity portfolio.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary2. Approach & Methodology
3. Power Demand Supply Overview - 2007 and 2017
a. Power Demand
b. Power Supply
c. Power Demand ~ Supply Gap
i. Peak
ii. Energy
4. The trend in Growth of Installed Power Generation Capacity - 2007 to 2017
a. The trend in Capacity Mix by fuel type
i. Thermal
ii. Hydro
iii. Nuclear
iv. Renewable Energy
v. Others
b. The trend in Base Load Capacity to Peak Load Capacity
c. Thermal, Nuclear
d. Gas, Hydro
e. Renewable Energy
5. Factors influencing thermal power capacity addition
a. Coal Availability
b. Growth in Base Load Vs Peak Load
c. Growth in Renewable Energy
d. Others
6. Old Thermal Power Plants
a. R&M
b. Decommission
7. Stress in the Thermal Power Sector
a. Power Plants Commissioned but no takers
b. Power Plants Operating at lower PLF
8. Forecasting Power Demand and Supply Scenario by 2030
a. Power Demand
b. Power Supply
c. Gap / Surplus
9. Forecasting Thermal Power Capacity by 2024-25 and 2029-30
a. High Growth Demand Scenario
b. Low Growth Demand Scenario
c. Business as Usual
d. Coal Supply Scenarios
i. Adequate Availability
ii. Supply Shortfall
e. Capacity Scenarios to be considered
i. High Renewables Capacity Scenario
ii. High Thermal Capacity Scenario
10. Arguments Against and For Thermal Capacity Growth Scenario
11. Emerging risks to thermal power plants
a. Water Shortage
12. Proposed, Planned and Under-Construction Thermal Power Capacities in India by 2024-25
a. Commissioned but yet to tie PPA
b. Under Construction
c. Proposed and Planned