The simultaneous emergence of four megatrends - electrification, automated driving, connectivity, and shared mobility are making it more difficult for manufacturers to forecast trends to guide them in investment and development.
This report examines current trends influencing the design of automotive transmissions for light duty vehicles and offers educated predictions of how these might play out by 2030.
In a major 60-page update for May 2019, the report now also assesses topics such as the hidden costs of global warming as it relates to automotive transmissions, the future of diesel in Europe, the switch from NEDC to WLTP and related fallout, how the US addresses global warming, as well as recent developments in China, all of it underpinned by original commentary and forecasts.
Over the next several years, if not decades, the industry will likely continue to develop a wide variety of transmissions to support both traditional and electric powertrain technologies.
So what transmission development trends should companies focus on to be sure they remain competitive in the rapidly shifting global markets?
Five key strategic questions on the future of automotive transmissions
- What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations projected for 2025 through 2030 will remain as currently envisioned? If they change, in what direction?
- Will the current trend of downspeeding to optimize the operating range of the ICE continue?
- How will electrification impact the development of the transmission?
- Will electrified powertrains demand significantly different development paths for hybrid and full EVs?
- What is the likelihood that a significant technical disruptor will be introduced in the next few years, significant enough and early enough to change the outcome predicted by the consensus view by 2030, all other factors remaining equal?
What this report offers
This report explores possible answers to these and other key questions, and attempts to assign probabilities to the outcomes. The purpose of these probabilities is not to attempt to predict the future so much as imagine the possibilities available, and attempt to do so with as much insight as is possible today. The focus of the report is understanding the trends behind current developments and extracting insights to help the reader plan and make sense of the rapidly changing environment for automotive transmission manufacturers and suppliers.
Who is the report for?
Chief Executive Officers, Marketing Directors, Business and Sales Development executives, Product and Project management, Purchasing and Technical Directors that need a powerful third party perspective and overview of the trends and issues in their sector and the potential ramifications for their business.
What the experts say:
Dr Joerg Gindele, Senior Director of Core Engineering, Magna Powertrain
“Multispeed transmissions will still be required, even with the move towards electric vehicles. Non-hybrid combustion engines now have up to ten gears, and in mild and full hybrids it still makes sense to have seven speeds”
Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic, Managing Director of Mikulic Consulting
“By 2030, it’s likely that electrified CVTs and AMTs with integrated electric motors will gain market share in the more cost-sensitive volume segments”
Larry Nitz, Executive Director of Global Propulsion Systems, General Motors
“Combustion engines and multi-gear / CVT transmissions will retain significant market share, but by 2030 most will have significant connected and electrified content for regenerative braking, load shifting and EV driving”
Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger President & CEO, FEV Group
“ICE-only drives will still require multispeed transmissions in 2030. Multispeed transmissions will also gain market share in BEVs seeking to improve efficiencies across the operating range”
Carsten Weber, manager of Engine and Powertrain Systems, Ford
“The role of transmissions will change. Instead of being the element that adjusts torque and speed between engine and wheel, they will become intelligent performance distributors that manage energy consumption, emissions and driving behavior”
Oscar Sarmiento, Head of Engineering, Japan, Continental
“Electrification will further push CVT applications in vehicles with large comfort demands for megacities”
About the Author
Peter Els has been involved in the automotive industry since 1979 when he joined Nissan South Africa’s product development team as an engineer. His later professional career was spent in engineering positions at OEM’s such as Daimler Chrysler, Fiat, Toyota, Nissan and Beijing Automotive Works. He’s also been technical sales and export manager at Robert Bosch South Africa, where rotating equipment and electronic control units were developed for local and international OEMs. After years in an industry driven by information gathering and communication Peter began writing technical reports and articles on various aspects of the industry and the cars it produces. Since then he has produced a broad spectrum of automotive analysis work on technology and the automotive industry, for several publishers focusing on the automotive industry.
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 The automotive industry’s assessment: Is there consensus on the future of the transmission?
1.2 Key questions uncertainties and trends
1.3 What do the opinion leaders have to say?
1.3.1 Magna’s Dr Joerg Gindele on opportunities for multi-speed transmissions
1.3.2 GWM’s Gerhard Henning and application-specific growth
1.3.3 Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic sees growth in CVTs and AMTs
1.3.4 GM’s Larry Nitz and connected transmissions
1.3.5 FEV’s Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger on multi-speed transmissions and CVTs
1.3.6 Ford’s Carsten Weber on intelligent performance and transmissions
1.3.7 BMW’s Peter Quintus on MT and M applications
1.3.8 Porsche‘s Gerd Bofinger and a transmissions portfolio
1.3.9 Nissan’s Toshihiro Hirai hybrid vision
1.3.10 Will any current transmissions disappear by 2030?
1.4 The industry’s best-fit consensus view
Chapter 2: Developing transmissions that cut emissions
2.1 What will global emissions regulations look like in 2030?
2.2 Global warming demands action: the cost of cleaner technologies
2.3 A US case study on the cost vs benefit of green technologies
2.4 Making every Joule count: optimising the ICE energy balance
2.5 Chapter 2 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 3: Arguing the technology: From MTs to transmissions for automated and connected cars
3.1 Unlocking the potential of downspeeding with more ratios
3.2 When is enough too much: what is the optimum number of gears?
3.3 Is there life left in the manual transmission?
3.3.1 How a family of transmissions cuts costs
3.4 Automating the manual transmission
3.5 Applying novel e-clutch solutions to automate the MT
3.6 Can the AT beat the MT at the efficiency game?
3.7 Possibility of DCTs challenging the AT market in America?
3.8 CVTs can still improve ICEs’ efficiency
3.8.1 The technologies driving modern CVTs
3.9 Designing transmissions for connected and autonomous vehicles
3.9.1 Connectivity and smart shifting
3.10 Chapter 3 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 4: Re-defining the transmission’s role in an electrified future
4.1 Full electric vehicle transmissions and efficiency
4.2 Is there a case to be made for unique micro and mild hybrid transmissions?
4.3 Who is doing what? Solutions for full hybrid EV transmissions
4.4 Chapter 4 – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 5: OEMs place their bets on future trends
5.1 Collaboration gives two US companies the best of both worlds heading to 2030
5.1.1 GM’s transmission plans
5.1.2 Ford’s transmission strategy
5.2 BMW adopts different approaches to efficiency and driver experience
5.2.1 Fine-tuning the DCT
5.2.2 BMW’s high performance 8G45 AT
5.3 Toyota’s TNGA platform and the future of the company’s transmissions
5.4 Honda’s compact, high performing 10 speed transverse AT
5.5 Hyundai’s Smartstream 8AT focuses on efficiency and fuel economy
5.6 New technologies demand unique solutions: Nissan’s variable compression engine and Jatco’s CVT8
5.7 What does Chrysler’s first DHT reveal about the company’s plans for transmissions in an electrified future?
5.7.1 An ICE, two motors and four driving operations define the eFlite DHT
5.8 Chapter 5 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 6: Transmissions for the Chinese market: A perspective on the challenges
6.1 Chinese drivers demand unique solutions
6.2 How will China’s NEV program impact transmission development?
6.3 Chapter 6 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 7: What will the transmission market look like in 2030?
7.1 What impact will electrification have on the transmission market in 2030?
7.2 Global transmission sales by the numbers
7.3 Chapter 7 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 8: New transmission technologies
8.1 Ricardo’s novel approach to replacing the MT
8.2 ZF’s AWD electrified drivetrain refines AMT gearshifts
8.3 Revolutionary CVTs set to make their mark by 2030
8.3.1 Beltless CVT cuts efficiency losses
8.3.2 An efficient CVT for EVs?
8.4 A modular hybrid transmission concept for AT, 48V, HEV and PHEV
8.4.1 Compact longitudinal hybrid concept
8.5 The key to 48-volt full-time EV lies with the transmission
8.6 Chapter 8 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 9: Looking past 2030: The next 20 years of the transmission
9.1 The impact of electrification and the high road scenario on transmission development
9.2 Low road scenario – technology and electrification take a breather
9.3 Chapter 9 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
Addendum A: Low viscosity universal fluids as a solution for e-mobility applications
Transmission fluids already follow the path of least resistance to lower viscosities
Can a low viscosity universal transmission fluid dominate the market?
Addendum B: The role of simulation in developing transmissions for important and untapped new markets
B1 Power to the people: Emerging economies are the industry’s only hope to grow sales
B1.1 India’s vehicle market shows unprecedented growth
B1.1.1 Factors supporting a perfect storm in India
B1.1.2 India’s engineers know a thing or two about cost effective engineering
B1.2 China takes a breather: Reasons for the slump and why sales will recover soon
B1.2.1 The details prove the market is far healthier than current sales indicate
B1.2.2 No need for concern, there is more growth to come
B1.3 Section B1 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
B2 The best transmission in the world is not American
B2.1 The best transmission in the world raises questions
B3 Simulate, analyze and optimize to capture new markets
B3.1 Simulating the silent world of the electrified drivetrain
B3.1.1 Defining the shake, rattle and roll of gears in mesh
B3.1.2 Simulating the impact of the electric machine
B3.1.3 How to select the right simulation tool to save time and money
B3.2 What part can AI play in transmission design?
B3.2.1 The better the data the better the solution
B3.2.2 Machine learning understands the value of multidimensional scaling
B3.2.3 Smart 3D CAD solutions relying on AI
B3.3 Section B3 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
B4 Predicting reliability of the transmission in the field
B4.1 New technologies’ impact on durability
B4.2 An innovative method to predict reliability in new applications and markets
B4.2.1 Determining the mission profile is key to predicting durability
B4.2.2 Defining the customer: Collecting data about real world driving
B4.2.3 Predicting a transmission’s durability only takes five steps
B4.2.4 Import, export and analyze in a simple GUI
B4.2.5 Predicting the durability of a transmission anywhere in the world
B4.3 Section B4 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
B5 Conclusion: Simulation as a means of reducing costs when exploring emerging markets
Addendum C: The world is hotter than we thought: The impact of new studies and emissions targets
C1 The hidden costs of global warming
C1.1 Will the latest UN report on climate-change force a rethink of emissions targets?
C1.2 Is it time we re-assess how we calculate the cost of emissions compliance?
C1.3 Section C1 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
C2 Revised EU emissions targets shake up the formula
C2.1 Is the Diesel finally dead in Europe?
C2.1.1 Germany’s costly plans to hang onto Diesels
C2.2 The switch from NEDC to WLTP creates havoc
C2.2.1 The WLTP forces several plugin hybrids out of the market
C2.3 Section C2 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
C3 America accepts global warming but chooses the low road
C3.1 America’s true cost of emissions
C3.1.1 The price Americans pay for global warming
C3.1.2 The Trump administration’s emissions savings
C3.2 Section C3 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
C4 China’s NEV program turns the region into an EV hotspot
C4.1 Section C4 summary – forecasts and uncertainties
C5 Conclusion: Where to from here?
Handy facts about key transmission supplier
Table of figures
Figure 1.1: These shifts in technology dictate the powertrain’s evolution
Figure 1.2: Breaking down the role of the transmission in future powertrain architectures
Figure 1.3: Which transmission will have disappeared from the global market in 15 years?
Figure 2.1: Major markets’ 2030 CO2 emissions regulations at a glance
Figure 2.2: This graph indicates manufacturers could afford the cost of lower CO2 emissions
Figure 2.3: A cost vs. benefit curve to guide investment in green technologies
Figure 2.4: This gasoline engine energy balance explains the need for more gears
Figure 3.1: New technologies demand increased ratio coverage
Figure 3.2: Technologically advanced powertrains thrive on more speeds
Figure 3.3: AMT functions that would never have been possible without an e-clutch
Figure 3.4: Selecting the level of automation is easy with an e-clutch
Figure 3.5: Is this EPA view of the US transmission market believable?
Figure 3.6: Improved CVTs are quietly increasing market share
Figure 4.1: Do OEMs electrification timeline reveal their transmission strategies?
Figure 4.2: Efficiency maps prove three is better than a single speed
Figure 4.3: IHS forecast DHTs will dominate by 2030
Figure 4.4: Should OEMs reconsider DHTs?
Figure 5.1: A quick guide to BMW group’s transverse transmissions
Figure 5.2: BMW’s transverse transmission strategy in numbers
Figure 5.3: BMW’s AGS adaptive transmission control
Figure 5.4: Customization of the Getrag 7DCT300 for BMW
Figure 5.5: The makings of a high-performance 8-speed AT
Figure 5.6: Cross-section shows ingenuity of Toyota’s UA80 design
Figure 5.7: Schematic of Honda’s rationale for the 10AT design
Figure 5.8: The ‘trick’ that produced a compact 10-speed AT
Figure 5.9: Key details of Honda’s new 10-speed
Figure 5.10: Comparing the 10AT’s efficiency to the opposition’s 8- and 9-speeds
Figure 5.11: How many gears can Honda’s 10AT skip shift?
Figure 5.12: Breakdown of the losses in an 8–speed AT
Figure 5.13: The inner workings of Hyundai’s multi-disc lockup clutch and 3-way convertor
Figure 5.14: Hyundai’s four steps to an efficient AT
Figure 5.15: Hyundai’s shift strategy
Figure 5.16: Accurate modelling highlights transmission errors and cuts NVH
Figure 5.17: Hyundai’s transmission lineup : implications for the future
Figure 5.18: Designing a novel CVT to compliment a VCR engine
Figure 5.19: Jatco’s solution to the standing-start acceleration challenge
Figure 5.20: These curves explain why lockup control holds the secret to smooth overtaking maneuvers
Figure 5.21: Compact, yet complex: Chrysler’s compact dual motor DHT
Figure 5.22: Flexible electric-only power flow using single or dual motor-drive
Figure 5.23: Reverse is electric-only in the Pacifica
Figure 5.24: The power flow shows the hybrid-drive with one motor and the ICE
Figure 5.25: Interesting power flow facilitates ICE stop-start operation
Figure 5.26: A detailed look at the one way clutch, key to controlling the power flow
Figure 6.1: The reasons Chinese consumers are not happy with their transmissions
Figure 6.2: In an uncertain Chinese market a flexible 8 Mode DHT could be a solution
Figure 7.1: This is why a homogenous consensus view is difficult: A map showing regional preferences
Figure 7.2: Global Electrification Trends: Time to rethink the EV market?
Figure 7.3: Technology determines the difference between the high and the low road in plugin sales in 2030
Figure 7.4: The winners and losers in global transmission sales
Figure 8.1: The dual transmission power-flow
Figure 8.2: Schematic of the dual transmission in action
Figure 8.3: Torque output versus shift times explains the smooth gear changes
Figure 8.4: A variator design that eliminates the belt-drive
Figure 8.5: From 75 to 95 percent – the impact of speed and load on electric motor efficiency
Figure 8.6: Varibox’s RADIALcvt design
Figure 8.7: A modular transmission design for all occasions
Figure 8.8: In this transmission simply adding modules creates unique solutions
Figure 8.9: Range of tractive force across modes
Figure 8.10: Modular transmission potential cost-savings
Figure 8.11: Future Hybrid-inspired longitudinal transmission
Figure 8.12: Novel transmission for a 48V fulltime EV
Figure 9.1: What does the picture look like after 2030
Figure A1: The lifeblood of the modern transmission: current requirements
Figure A2: Will a universal fluid ever provide acceptable friction control?
Figure A3: The case for novel universal electrified transmission fluids
Figure A4: Conductivity curves for conventional fluids and electrified transmission
Figure B1.1: Traditional markets are stalling
Figure B1.2: No established market offers 50 percent growth over the next six years
Figure B1.3: Waiting in the wings: China’s next wave of buyers
Figure B2.1: A/Ts rule the market in China and just keep growing
Figure B2.2: Who produces what and how many in this burgeoning transmission market
Figure B2.3: The best of the best: But why do American ATs fare so badly?
Figure B3.1: Artificial Intelligence takes a transmission from concept to final design
Figure B3.2: Machine learning is smart at grouping results
Figure B3.3: Clustering helps the machine prioritize the results
Figure B3.4: Machine learning creates results humans can interpret
Figure B3.5: Finally the best fit solution emerges
Figure B3.6: A one in a billion solution pops up in 3D CAD
Figure B4.1: No one would have thought regenerative braking would do this to a transmission
Figure B4.2: Are you sure the transmission meets the company’s safety margins?
Figure B4.3: Analyzing a transmission’s reliability in five steps
Figure B4.4: Following the fatigue curve to reliability
Figure B4.5: So far and no further: Predicting the number of cycles to failure
Figure B4.6: Operate the transmission in this overtorque zone at your own peril
Figure B4.7: Cumulative damage due to overtorque is exponential
Figure B4.8: The picture tells the story: The GUI displays all the information on one screen
Figure B4.9: No need to ship a vehicle around the world, the software does it all
Figure B4.10: This tool even gives you a safety factor by region
Figure C1.1: The disastrous consequences of Global warming
Figure C1.2: The impact of GHG emissions on global warming
Figure C1.3: One degree at a time, GHG emissions are strangling the globe
Figure C1.4: Is the world sinking under the weight of CO2 emissions?
Figure C2.1: This is how the change from the NEDC to WLTP wiped out 350,000 sales
Figure C2.2: These WLTC tests may have killed the PHEV in Europe
Figure C3.1: Will America take the lead in CO2 emissions in 2030?
Table of Tables
Table 2.1: Summary of key emissions questions with probabilities of occurring
Table 3.1: The Indian market fuels the growing list of AMT equipped vehicles
Table 3.2: Summary of key questions for transmission-type market shares with probabilities of occurring
Table 4.1: Summary of key questions regarding the impact of electrification with probabilities of occurring
Table 5.1: Smart collaboration covers everything from the Camaro ZL1 to the F150 41
Table 5.2: A sign of the times: 75% of GM’s transmissions will have more than 9 speeds by 2021
Table 5.3: Specifications of Honda 10-speed
Table 5.4: Hyundai’s specifications demonstrate the flexible design
Table 5.5: Summary of key questions regarding current-trend disruptors with probabilities of occurring
Table 6.1: Summary of key questions regarding uncertainties in the Chinese transmission market with probabilities of occurring
Table 7.1: Summary of key questions regarding uncertainties of the key market drivers with probabilities of occurring
Table 8.1: Component ‘add and delete’ costs show promise for the dual transmission
Table 8.2: Comparisons of number of common parts
Table 8.3: Flexibility and performance across modular variants
Table 8.4: Shift elements for eight forward driving PH modes
Table 8.5: Specifications of a multi-speed 48V EV powertrain
Table 8.6: Summarized forecast and questions around future transmission technologies with probabilities of occurring
Table 9.1: Summary of key questions regarding uncertainties of key market drivers post 2030 with probabilities of occurring
Table A1: Arguments for and against universal and dedicated fluids
Table B1.1: Follow the money: A new global economic order by 2050
Table B1.2: Summary of key questions regarding sustainable growth in E7 markets with probabilities assigned
Table B2.1: Not many markets could offer this growth
Table B2.2: This is what defines the best transmission in the world
Table B2.3: Summary of key questions regarding the best transmission competition with probabilities assigned
Table B3.1: Tools a transmission simulation toolbox should not be without
Table B3.2: Key questions around the use of simulation in transmission development, with probabilities assigned
Table B4.1: Without defining this driving cycle any transmission simulation will fail
Table B4.2: Recording these inputs forms the basis of wear and tear prediction
Table B4.3: Summary of key questions regarding durability simulation with probabilities assigned
Table C1.1: Summary of key questions regarding the impact of the IPCC report with probabilities assigned
Table C2.1: No matter how clean it is, the internal combustion engine isn’t welcome over here
Table C2.2: Summary of key questions regarding the impact of revised emissions targets with probabilities assigned
Table C3.1: Summary of key questions regarding America’s stance on GHGs with probabilities assigned
Table C4.1: Summary of key questions regarding China’s NEV program with probabilities assigned