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The State of African 4G: 4G Progress, Spectrum Value and the Precarious Case for African Data Monetization

  • ID: 4661698
  • Report
  • Region: Africa
  • 65 Pages
  • Xalam Analytics
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Afrimax
  • Cell C
  • Etisalat
  • MTN
  • MTN SA
  • Orange
  • MORE

Africa 4G Market Report, Including Charts and Data in Excel Format.

On the surface, 4G service rollout in African markets appears to be going well. Around 115 LTE networks are commercial, or expected to launch in the continent before the end of 2018. On average, since 2015, around 20 new 4G networks launch in Africa every year. The African 4G subscriber base has been doubling every year (though from a small base) and operators are reporting double-digit traffic growth numbers. The reality, however, is more nuanced. Despite the positive growth, the African market is falling behind on 4G. Spectrum allocation has been a challenge, and 4G business models remain in flux.

This report provides the most extensive analysis available on the current state of African 4G markets. It provides insights on the nature, pace and size of 4G deployments, the nature, and value of 4G spectrum used, critical obstacles to African 4G monetization and more.

The report also explores critical 4G questions, such as the future of Rwanda’s 4G wholesale model, the impact of upcoming 5G on 4G, the impact of 4G on operator EBITDA and cash flows and more.

A reference report for all stakeholders and investors in African mobile broadband markets.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Afrimax
  • Cell C
  • Etisalat
  • MTN
  • MTN SA
  • Orange
  • MORE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - THE DIFFICULT CASE FOR AFRICAN 4G

PART I BREAKING DOWN THE AFRICAN 4G MARKET: STATE OF ROLLOUT, SPECTRUM VALUE, AND ADOPTION

STATE OF ROLLOUT: 100+, UNEVENLY DISTRIBUTED 4G NETWORKS

  • Africa 4G - More than 100 4G networks are now operational
  • Africa 4G - Not evenly distributed
  • Africa 4G network deployment - Increasingly a large MNO game
  • Africa 4G network deployment - Striking Regional Differences
  • Africa 4G network coverage - a slow and steady expansion
  • Africa 4G network deployment - Major pan-African groups are catching up

AN ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN 4G SPECTRUM ALLOCATION

  • Africa 4G spectrum allocation progress: mostly complete, with lots of work in progress
  • Africa 4G spectrum allocation progress: roadblocks abound
  • Africa 4G spectrum allocation progress: a digital switchover failure
  • Spectrum allocation - an over-reliance on refarming
  • Showing the money: African 4G spectrum sales have surpassed 3G
  • Showing the money: Egypt, West Africa make the most of 4G spectrum sales
  • Africa 4G spectrum value - 800 MHz valued like 2G, 4G pricier than 3G was

AFRICA’S 4G ADOPTION: BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS

  • Africa’s mobile Internet addressable base
  • Africa 4G Connections - to grow 4x over the next five years
  • An uneven uptake - African 4G adoption by region, and the West Africa gap
  • Africa’s top 20 4G markets - a country view
  • Africa’s top 4G providers - a top line view

PART II ANSWERING CRITICAL 4G QUESTIONS

WHY IS AFRICA BEHIND ON 4G - AND CAN THIS BE FIXED?

  • African LTE in global context
  • (Sub-Saharan) Africa is falling behind on 4G
  • 4G coverage and penetration are lagging global trends
  • Why Africa is falling behind - A financially-prolific, yet disastrous 4G spectrum allocation
  • Why Africa is falling behind - Inflexible, befuddling and self-defeating spectrum regimes
  • Why Africa is falling behind - Terrible terrestrial fibre economics
  • Mobile leased capacity demand rising by ~30% annually
  • Africa terrestrial fibre - Not competitive everywhere

THE RWANDAN 4G MODEL: SUCCESS OR FAILURE?

  • The Rwandan 4G case - an overview
  • The Rwandan 4G case - 4G is here, but nobody’s using it
  • The Rwandan 4G case: coverage, pricing and adoption
  • Why the Rwandan 4G model hasn’t worked

DOES THE ARRIVAL OF 5G MAKE AFRICAN 4G MOOT?

  • The 5G case
  • The African 5G impact: Not here yet, but already a potential game changer
  • The African 5G impact - 4G will do fine for now

CAN AFRICAN 4G BE MONETIZED?

  • The 4G impact on data revenue
  • The 4G impact on ARPU
  • 4G - not a panacea for mobile revenue pressure
  • The 4G EBITDA case - for many MNOs, there isn’t one
  • The keys to 4G success: low spectrum costs, owned fibre, market scale

PART III APPENDIX & TABLES

CHART & TABLES

STATE OF ROLLOUT: 100+, UNEVENLY DISTRIBUTED 4G NETWORKS

  • Number of Africa LTE Commercial Networks - 2012-2019F
  • Africa 4G Network availability - December 2018 (Forecast)
  • Distribution of African 4G Network availability - December 2018 (Forecast)
  • Number of Africa LTE Commercial Networks by Provider Type - 2012-2019F
  • Africa Mobile Networks by Region - 2018 E
  • % of MNOs that have a 4G Network - Regional average 2018 E
  • Africa 4G Networks by Region - 2018 E
  • 4G network coverage of the population in sample African markets - 2018E*
  • Number of Africa LTE commercial networks by major operator group - 2018E*

AN ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN 4G SPECTRUM ALLOCATION

  • Africa 4G spectrum allocation - View by status of the process
  • Africa 4G spectrum allocation - View by status of the process
  • Digital switchover status in Sub-Saharan Africa - February 2018
  • Distribution of Prime 4G LTE Bands - Africa vs. Global (% of Commercial LTE Networks)*
  • Key Phases of African spectrum licensing
  • Financial proceeds from 4G spectrum sales across African markets
  • Median Value for Sample Frequency Bands in African Markets
  • Median Value by Technology Generation and Spectrum Blocks in African Markets

AFRICA’S 4G ADOPTION: BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS

  • Evolution of African mobile broadband connections - 3G vs. 4G
  • Regional contribution to 4G and selected macro-indicators
  • Africa 4G connections and penetration - a country view
  • Africa Top 20 4G Providers - based on active connections - 2018F
  • Africa 4G connections by pan-African telco group - 2018F

WHY IS AFRICA BEHIND ON 4G - AND CAN THIS BE FIXED?

  • LTE Connections Around the World - 2017-18E
  • Africa contribution to key global industry indicators
  • Africa contribution to global LTE connections
  • 4G Penetration of mobile subscriptions - How Africa fares vs. the world
  • 4G networks coverage of the population - How Africa fares vs. the world
  • Nigeria - 800 MHz spectrum allocation vs. Mobile CapEx
  • Ghana - 2600 MHz spectrum allocation vs. Mobile CapEx
  • Evolution of Fibre Sites - Sub-Saharan Africa*
  • Evolution of Mobile Leased Capacity Requirements - Sub-Saharan Africa*
  • Africa Terrestrial Fibre - Competitive Context Map - 2017 E
  • SSA Fibre Country Distribution - by Market Context - 2017 E
  • % of SSA installed fibre - by Market Context - 2017 E*

THE RWANDAN 4G MODEL: SUCCESS OR FAILURE?

  • Rwanda 4G network coverage vs. African markets - 2018 E
  • Rwanda 4G adoption vs. African markets - 4G as % of mobile base
  • Rwanda 4G data pricing vs. African markets - Q4 2018E
  • Rwanda 4G adoption vs. 3G

DOES THE ARRIVAL OF 5G MAKE AFRICAN 4G MOOT?

  • Cell site capacity requirements by technology generation

CAN AFRICAN 4G BE MONETIZED?

  • Data contribution to revenue vs. MBB penetration - 3G vs. 4G MNOs - 2018 E
  • Evolution of ARPU vs. 4G Penetration (2014-18) - South Africa
  • Evolution of ARPU vs. 4G Penetration (2014-18) - Zimbabwe
  • Average mobile services revenue growth - 4G MNOs vs. 3G-Only MNOs
  • EBITDA margin vs. 4G Penetration - 4G MNOs vs. 3G-Only MNOs

TABLE: 4G CONNECTIONS BY COUNTRY

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  • Afrimax
  • Airtel
  • Cell C
  • Econet Zimbabwe
  • Etisalat
  • Korea Telecom Rwanda Networks
  • Maroc Telecom
  • MTN
  • MTN Nigeria
  • MTN SA
  • Optimum Algeria
  • Orange
  • Orange Mali
  • Safaricom
  • Telkom SA
  • Visafone
  • Vodacom
  • Vodafone
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