Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4664018
  • Report
  • Region: Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Europe
  • 36 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Telecoms retail revenue growth will be driven by revenue from mobile data due to improved LTE network coverage, LTE-A speeds and capacity upgrades."

Telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will increase during the forecast period, supported by a more positive economic outlook. Mobile data revenue and fixed broadband deployments will remain key areas for retail revenue growth. The growth in retail revenue from mobile data (supported by improved LTE network coverage, LTE-A speeds and capacity upgrades) will be particularly crucial for the total telecoms revenue growth.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
Smartphone,
non-smartphone

Fixed
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic
Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile
Service, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed
Service, retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

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Chapter Nos:
8. Executive summary and recommendations
9. Telecoms revenue will continue to grow during the next few years, driven mainly by revenue growth from handset data and fixed network
10. Telecoms retail revenue growth will be driven by expanding LTE coverage, prepaid-to-contract migration and a focus on network improvements
11. Geographical coverage: the number of 4G/5G and NGA connections will significantly increase in the region during the forecast period
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Market context: the increasing GDP across the region will help to maintain telecoms revenue growth
16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
17. Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
18. Market overview: total telecoms revenue growth will be driven by the growing usage of high-value handset data plans and the improved economy and service coverage
19. Mobile: the improved LTE-A coverage and an increasing number of mobile contract subscribers will drive mobile ARPU growth
20. Mobile: notable mobile penetration growth is only expected in Turkey, as most of the other countries in the region have already reached saturation
21. Mobile: ARPU will increase in a number of countries in CEE mainly as a result of increasing migration towards contract and high-value data plans
22. Mobile: declining price pressure and improved LTE/LTE-A coverage will positively affect mobile ARPU
23. Fixed: the relatively low fixed broadband household penetration in CEE means that there is potential for an increased number of connections and revenue growth
24. Fixed: the number of households with broadband connections will increase in all countries in CEE thanks to a better economic outlook and more NGA investments
25. Fixed: the broadband segment is highly competitive in most countries in CEE, but an increasing number of bundled offers will help to stabilise ASPU in the longer term
26. Fixed: fixed-mobile converged bundles and speed upgrades will help operators to maintain revenue growth
27. Business services: enterprise revenue growth in Central and Eastern Europe will be driven by an increase in the number of connections and data connectivity revenue
28. IoT: the smart buildings and automotive markets are developing rapidly, and competition is intensifying as technology firms enter the market
29. Pay TV: changing viewing habits will drive OTT-to-the-TV service revenue growth during the forecast period
30. Individual country forecasts
31. Czech Republic: IoT will cause revenue growth in the mobile market, and investments in fixed broadband infrastructure will drive to fixed revenue
32. Czech Republic: 5G services are expected to begin in 2019; this will be the earliest launch in CEE
33. Czech Republic: a wave of competition is expected in the mobile market as the regulator seeks to decrease consumer ASPU
34. Czech Republic: forecast changes
35. Poland: the total market revenue growth will be driven by increasing revenue from fixed broadband, business services and mobile broadband
36. Poland: operators will continue investments in NGA networks and mobile network upgrades with the aim of becoming 5G-ready by 2021
37. Poland: operators' key focus will be on network and coverage upgrades
38. Poland: forecast changes
39. Russia: telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period, drive by a promising economic outlook and strong demand
40. Russia: the growing availability and affordability of smartphones, and the rising demand for online content services will boost mobile data usage
41. Russia: there is a large amount of consolidation in the fixed market, and the total mobile telecoms market will increase by 2023
42. Russia: forecast changes
43. Turkey: high inflation will artificially raise revenue growth, but strong technological improvements will also lead to increase in revenue
44. Turkey: 4G take-up has increased quickly following its commercial introduction in 2015, leading to significant growth in data consumption
45. Turkey: inflation will distort revenue trends but strong operator investments in fixed, mobile and pay-TV services will drive revenue growth
46. Turkey: forecast changes
47. Methodology
48. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
49. Examples of forecast input drivers
50. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
51. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
52. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017-2023
Figure 3: 4g/5g share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017 and 2023
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 5: Metric for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2013-2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2013-2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2013-2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 22a: Fixed Broadband household penetration by county, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 22b: Fixed Broadband household penetration by county, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2013-2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013-2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2013-2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013-2023
Figure 31: 4G.5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2013-2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2013-2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2013-2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2013-2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2013-2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2013-2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, 2013-2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million, 2013-2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2013-2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2013-2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2013-2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2013-2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB trillion), 2013-2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2013-2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, 2013-2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2013-2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2013-2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2013-2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2013-2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2013-2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2013-2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2013-2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2013-2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2013-2023
Figure 63: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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