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Pay TV and OTT Video in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4700925
  • Report
  • November 2018
  • Region: Europe
  • 22 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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FEATURED COMPANIES

"We forecast that operators and traditional pay-TV providers will gain users and retail revenue as a result of OTT, with retail revenue increasing from EUR32.5 billion to EUR34.9 billion between 2018 and 2023."

This forecast unites our traditional and OTT video forecasts for Western Europe into a single forecast because these services cannot be viewed in isolation. Full-price pay-TV services are being launched over unmanaged IP (for example, OTT), and from a consumer point of view, these services are the same, or better, than the services that they received over traditional accesses such as cable and satellite.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, premium OTT video users, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT; operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT video service – linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
  • forecasts for 16 individual countries and Western Europe as a whole.

Key Performance Indicators

  • pay-TV households and connections
  • OTT video users
  • retail revenue (spend)
  • ASPU

Pay TV is split by the following access technologies:

  • cable (analogue and digital, CATV)
  • IPTV
  • pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
  • satellite (DTH)
  • operator OTT
  • third-party (non-operator) OTT

OTT video is split as follows:

  • linear - channels (paid-for and free)
  • linear - events
  • TVoD - (rental and ownership)
  • SVoD (paid-for and free)

Who should read this report

  • Product and strategy managers within pay-TV providers and operators who require market sizing for business planning purposes, as well as an overview of the key trends that are affecting the market in order to help them to develop propositions accordingly.
  • Business development managers within vendors of video solutions who need to assess the size of the opportunity for their products and services.
  • Financial analysts who need to understand the dynamics and the size of the pay-TV market and its interaction with OTT video services.
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FEATURED COMPANIES

Chapter No.

5. Executive summary
6. The future of Western European pay TV is OTT video
7. Traditional pay-TV spend will peak in 2019, but operators and pay-TV  providers will gain EUR2.4 billion in incremental revenue from their own OTT services by 2023
8. The extent to which operators and pay-TV providers embrace OTT delivery will significantly influence future retail revenue growth in each country in  Western Europe
9. Regional trends
10. Geographical coverage: IPTV is now the dominant access technology in France, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland
11. OTT services delivered by pay-TV providers will grow the total retail revenue captured by ‘traditional’ players from EUR32.5 billion in 2018 toEUR34.9 billion in 2023
12. Retail revenue for SVoD services will almost double between 2018 and 2023, but revenue from the delivery of linear services will grow from 18% to 29% of spend
13. Traditional pay-TV connections will remain stable, but subscription growth will be driven by traditional players’ own OTT service launches
14. SVoD will continue to be the most-popular retail model for OTT video in Western Europe, but linear service use will grow more rapidly
15. Country-level trends
16. France: bundling will stem the decline of traditional access technologies while providers use OTT delivery to pursue secondary subscriptions
17. France: Netflix and Amazon drove SVoD growth over 2017 and 2018, but future revenue growth will be driven by linear channel subscriptions

List of Figures
Figure 1: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, Western Europe,2015–2023
Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, WesternEurope, 2018–2023
Figure 3: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to total change in retail revenue in Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT by country, Western Europe, 2023
Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-tv providers, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe,2018–2023
Figure 8: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, WesternEurope, 2015–2023
Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe,2018–2023
Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe,2018–2023
Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, Western Europe,2015–2023
Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, France, 2015–2023
Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, France, 2015–2023
Figure 15: Number of users by service type, France, 2015–2023
Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Germany, 2015–2023
Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Germany, 2015–2023
Figure 18: Number of users by service type, Germany, 2015–2023
Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Italy, 2015–2023
Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Italy, 2015–2023
Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Italy, 2015–2023
Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Spain, 2015–2023
Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Spain, 2015–2023
Figure 24: Number of users by service type, Spain, 2015–2023
Figure 25: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, UK, 2015–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, UK, 2015–2023
Figure 27: Number of users by service type, UK, 2015–2023
Figure 28: Scope of our spend forecasts

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