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Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4702513
  • Report
  • November 2018
  • Region: Europe
  • 12 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"5G services will be launched in Europe, but these services lack a strong enough proposition to reverse the long-term stagnation in mobile revenue in the region."

Operators across Western Europe (WE) are competing to be the first to launch 5G mobile services, although these services are unlikely to boost revenue in most cases. In this report, we examine the key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the WE region and for 16 individually modelled countries.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 224 mobile KPIs for the Western European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Data coverage

Mobile connections

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
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Chapter No.

5. Executive summary
6. Worldwide: mobile handset data and next-generation access broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: mobile handset data and next-generation access broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide
9. Regional trends
10. Mobile: the overall mobile telecoms revenue outlook for Western Europe remains flat
11. Mobile: 4G will become the default technology for all market segments; this will lead to a strong growth in mobile data usage, but not in ARPU
12. Mobile: mobile penetration will decline gradually in most countries as the contract share of connections increases and replacement cycles lengthen
13. Mobile: ARPU is noticeably higher in the two non-EU countries in WE, where the incumbents have a high market share
14. Mobile: operators across Western Europe are preparing for the launch of 5G services in the next 2 years
15. Country-level trends
16. France: improved technology, a better market situation and good economic performance will lead to low but stable telecoms revenue growth in France
17. Germany: 5G will be introduced commercially in 2020, causing the 4G share of connections to decline from 2021 onwards
18. Italy: new entrant Iliad has further increased competition in the mobile market; 5G frequencies were released in October 2018
19. Spain: operators will focus on 5G deployments
20. UK: mobile ARPU will continue to grow modestly despite strong traffic growth
21. Forecast methodology and assumptions
22. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
23. Examples of forecast input drivers
24. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TVretail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, Western Europe and worldwide, 2012-2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2013-2023
Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2013-2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU, France (EUR per month), 2013-2023
Figure 14: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2013
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2013
Figure 16: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2013
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2013
Figure 18: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2013
Figure 19: Mobile ARPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2013
Figure 20: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2013
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU, UK (GBP per month), 2013
Figure 14: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2013-2023
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2013-2023
Figure 16: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2013-2023
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2013-2023
Figure 18: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2013-2023
Figure 19: Mobile ARPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2013-2023
Figure 20: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2013-2023
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU, UK (GBP per month), 2013-2023

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  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
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