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Country Risk Service France 4th Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4705802
  • Country Profile
  • December 2019
  • Region: France
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The rating remained at A in The Economist Intelligence Unit's last assessment. Since Emmanuel Macron took office as president in May 2017 and began a wide-ranging reform programme there has been a modest improvement in France's score. Social unrest in late 2018 prompted some renewed fiscal loosening, which contributed to a wider budget deficit in 2019, and public debt will remain high in 2020-21; but funding conditions remain highly favourable.

The currency risk rating remained at A in our latest assessment. The rating is supported by the euro zone's economic and institutional framework, which has improved from 2015, and its resilience to political risk and external shocks. Structural support for the euro comes from a large regional current-account surplus.

The rating remained at A, with the score deteriorating by 1 point, as credit growth to the private sector picked up in 2017-19-although this remained within reasonable bounds. France's banking sector has had a Tier 1 capital ratio of more than 15% since 2017, and the share of non-performing loans has been less than 3% of total loans since mid-2018.
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Country Risk Service France 4th Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-24: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-24: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-24: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-24: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-24: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-24: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-24: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-24: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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