CPM Silver Long-Term Outlook: Ten-Year Projections for Supply, Demand, and Price

  • ID: 471407
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 246 Pages
  • CPM Group
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CPM Silver Long-Term Outlook: Ten-Year Projections for Supply, Demand, and Price

This annually released special study on the international silver market reviews the prospects for supply, demand, and prices for silver for the next ten years. The report is comprised of three sections. The first portion presents detailed projections of silver prices as well as supply and demand for all sectors of the silver market; the second segment presents price projections for silver under alternate scenarios; and the third section provides a thorough background and history of the silver market.

The CPM Group Silver Long-Term Study contains comprehensive analysis of the silver market. The Silver Long-Term Study provides ten-year projections for the silver market under one main scenario as well as four alternate scenarios of real and nominal silver prices, silver supply and demand, silver surplus and deficit, estimated silver bullion inventories, annual total silver supply, and annual total silver demand.

CPM's research is an independent source of extensive information on and analysis of the commodities markets. CPM has several competitive advantages as a research provider. CPM analysts maintain databases of proprietary information compiled over the last three decades, which aids in the research process. CPM maintains a network of market contacts and clients around the globe that constantly inform its analysts of changes occurring in the production, consumption, and trade of commodities. CPM's analysts apply economic and econometric analytical skills to commodities markets to a greater degree than many other research groups, which tend to rely more on descriptive analyses. CPM utilizes these advantages to offer extensively and authoritatively researched products. CPM analysts are experts in their respective markets, whether it be precious metals, soft commodities, industrial metals, or energy commodities.

In the last twenty years this research has been utilized by leading investment funds, individual investors, producing and using corporations, and governments. CPM strongly believes in the importance of unbiased fundamental research on the commodities markets and the benefits such research has for our clients and their businesses.
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Table of Contents
Introduction
Main Scenario
Chart: Real and Nominal Silver Prices, Scenario 1
Chart: Silver Supply and Demand, Scenario 1
Chart: Silver Surplus and Deficit, Scenario 1
Table: Silver Supply, Demand and Prices, Scenario 1
Chart: The Silver Market
Chart: Deficits’ Effects on Prices Depend on Inventories
Annual Surpluses and Deficits
Chart: Precious Metals Bullion Stocks
Chart: Implied Silver Lease Rates
Chart: Estimated Silver Inventories in London and Zurich
Chart: Annual Total Supply
Chart: Annual Total Demand
Table: The Economy
Chart: Economic Indicators: Real GDP and Price Indices
World - IMF Index
Total OECD
United States
European Union
Japan
Alternate Scenarios
Chart: Real Silver Prices -- Five Scenarios
Table: Real Silver Prices -- Five Scenarios
Scenario 2: 30% Probability on the High End
Chart: Real and Nominal Silver Prices, Scenario 2
Chart: Silver Supply and Demand, Scenario 2
Chart: Silver Surplus and Deficit, Scenario 2
Table: Silver Supply, Demand and Prices, Scenario 2
Scenario 3: 10% Probability on the High End
Chart: Real and Nominal Silver Prices, Scenario 3
Chart: Silver Supply and Demand, Scenario 3
Chart: Silver Surplus and Deficit, Scenario 3
Table: Silver Supply, Demand and Prices, Scenario 3
Scenario 4: 30% Probability on the Low End
Chart: Real and Nominal Silver Prices, Scenario 4
Chart: Silver Supply and Demand, Scenario 4
Chart: Silver Surplus and Deficit, Scenario 4
Table: Silver Supply, Demand and Prices, Scenario 4
Scenario 5: 10% Probability on the Low End
Chart: Real and Nominal Silver Prices, Scenario 5
Chart: Silver Supply and Demand, Scenario 5
Chart: Silver Surplus and Deficit, Scenario 5
Table: Silver Supply, Demand and Prices, Scenario 5
Silver Market Fundamentals
Introduction
Table: Silver Statistical Position
Chart: The Price of Silver
Chart: Supply and Demand Balance
Chart: Silver Market Surplus/Deficit
Chart: Deficits’ Effects on Prices Depend on Inventories
Annual Surpluses and Deficits
Estimated Total Silver Bullion Inventories
Silver Bullion Inventories as Months of Demand
The Markets
Chart: The Silver Market
Table: The Precious Metals Markets in Recent Years
Table: London Bullion Market Clearing Turnover
Chart: Trading Volume on Comex and Tocom
Chart: Open Interest on Comex and Tocom
Table: Silver Futures Exchange Activity
Chart: Comex Futures Trading Activity
Trading Volume
Open Interest
Chart: Tocom Futures Trading Activity
Trading Volume
Open Interest
Chart: Trading Volume in Comex Silver Options
Chart: Open Interest in Comex Silver Options
Chart: Comex Options Trading Volume - Puts and Calls
Chart: Comex Options Open Interest - Puts and Calls
Table: Comex Trading Volume
Table: Comex Open Interest
Table: Tocom Trading Volume
Table: Tocom Open Interest
Table: Annual Silver Options Activity
Table: Comex Options Trading Volume
Table: Comex Options Trading Volume
Chart: Comex Options Put/Call Ratio
Investment Demand
Chart: Annual Net Investment Demand and Prices
Chart: Silver and the US Dollar
Table: Comparative Investments
Chart: Silver and the S&P 500
Chart: Silver and the 30-Year US Treasury Bond
Chart: Coinage Demand
Chart: Recent Trends in American Eagle Sales
Inventories
Chart: Reported Market Inventories
Chart: Comex Registered and Eligible Stocks
Table: Reported and Estimated Silver Inventories, Mid-Point Estimates
Chart: Government Silver Inventories
Table: Market Silver Inventories
Table: Government Silver Inventories
Prices
Chart: Silver Prices 1990 - 2004
Table: Absolute Percent Change, Year-to-Year, Real Silver Prices
Chart: Histogram of Daily Silver Prices
Chart: Monthly Silver Volatility
Chart: Quarterly Silver Price Volatility
Chart: Monthly Gold and Silver Prices
Chart: The Gold/Silver Price Ratio
Chart: Quarterly Real and Nominal Silver Prices
Chart: Quarterly Silver Prices and US Inflation
Chart: Monthly Silver Prices and US Inflation
Chart: Interest Rates and Silver Prices
Supply
Chart: Annual Total Supply
Chart: Market Economy Mine Production Since 1979
Chart: Market Economy Mine Production in 2000
Table: Silver Mine Production by Source
Chart: Mine Production in Mexico
Chart: Mine Production in Peru
Chart: Mine Production in Australia
Chart: Mine Production in the United States
Chart: Mine Production in Canada
Chart: The Long-Term Shift in Mine Output
Chart: The Dichotomy of Silver Mine Production
Chart: Market Economy and Transitional Economy Mine Production
Table: Mine Production by Country
Table: Mine Production of Silver
Table: World Silver Mine Production by Company
Chart: Annual Secondary Supply
Table: Secondary and Other Supplies
Chart: Secondary’s Share of Total Supply
Table: Indian Silver Supply
Chart: South Asian Silver Trade
Chart: Indian Silver Market
Chart: Other Supply
Chart: Transitional Economy Net Imports/Exports
Chart: Mine Production in China
Chart: Mine Production in the Transitional Economies
Chart: Mine Production in the CIS
Chart: CIS Mine Production by Country
Table: Silver Production and Reserves in the CIS
Table: World Silver Supply and Fabrication Demand
Fabrication Demand
Chart: Annual Total Demand
Table: Annual Silver Use
Table: Fabrication Demand By Country, 1960-2000
Table: Price Elasticity of Silver Demand, 1978-2000
Chart: Price Elasticity of Silver Demand
Chart: Jewelry and Silverware Demand for Silver
Chart: Jewelry and Silverware as a Percent of Total Demand
Chart: Photographic Demand
Chart: Silver in Photography in 1999
Chart: Silver Use in the US Photographic Industry
Chart: Electronics and Batteries
Chart: Other Uses
Chart: World Silver Use Per Unit of GDP
Chart: World Silver Use Per Capita
Chart: Indian Fabrication Demand
Table: Indian Silver Fabrication Demand
Chart: Indian Silver Market
Chart: Illegal Imports into India
Chart: US Fabrication Demand
Chart: Italian Fabrication Demand
Table: European Fabrication Demand
Table: Italian Fabrication Demand
Table: Annual US Fabrication Demand
Table: Japanese Fabrication Demand
Table: Japanese Silver Market
Chart: Japanese Fabrication Demand
Chart: Shifting Silver Demand Growth Patterns
Chart: Developing World Use as a Percent of Total Fabrication Demand
Table: Shifting Growth Patterns in Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: German Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: United Kingdom Fabrication Demand
Table: French Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Belgian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Netherlands Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Austrian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Mexican Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Canadian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: South Korean Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Taiwan Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Hong Kong Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Australian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Peruvian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Brazilian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Colombian Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Argentine Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Chilean Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Pakistan Silver Fabrication Demand
Table: Bangladesh Silver Fabrication Demand
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