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North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4716286
  • Report
  • February 2019
  • Region: North America
  • 26 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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The Total Retail Revenue in North America will Grow at a CAGR of 0.9% During the Forecast Period

The total retail revenue in North America (NA) will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% during the forecast period, driven by revenue growth in the fixed broadband and IoT segments in the USA.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • A 5-year forecast of more than 201 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America (NA) and for the two countries in the region
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • A summary of results, key implications, and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Countries Modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
  • Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other
  • Fixed and mobile voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Executive summary and recommendations

  • Total telecoms revenue growth in North America will be limited due to competitive pressure in the US mobile segment
  • The total telecoms revenue growth will be much higher in Canada than the USA due to a lack of competition in the Canadian mobile market
  • Geographical coverage: 4G/5G share of connections will reach 100% in both countries before 2023
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Key recommendations for telecoms operators

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

  • Market context: North America’s economy will remain fairly stable during the forecast period
  • Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will grow modestly, mostly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue
  • Mobile: 5G handsets will account for 12% of mobile connections by 2023
  • Mobile: the growth in mobile penetration will mostly come from Canada, where the mobile market is less competitive than in the USA
  • Mobile: the competitive market pressure will ease and MNOs will look for new opportunities in the FWA segment
  • Fixed: fixed retail revenue will reach a peak in 2020-2021 and will then start to decline due to falling voice revenue
  • Fixed: broadband prices in the region continue to rise due to limited competition
  • Fixed: there is still potential for fixed broadband penetration growth in North America
  • Business services: the region’s enterprise business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non-operators that provide other business services
  • IoT: the automotive and smart buildings segments will account for more than half of the total IoT revenue in North America
  • Pay TV: cord-cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay-TV service revenue will decline

Individual country forecasts
Canada: mobile revenue growth will be driven by limited competition and increasing data usage
Canada: NGA connections will make up over 90% of all fixed broadband connections by 2023
Canada: the three main MNOs will maintain their strong market position and the mobile segment will drive the total market revenue growth
Canada: forecast changes
USA: revenue growth in the fixed broadband and mobile IoT segments will contribute most to the total telecoms revenue increase
USA: the number of FTTP/B connections will increase quickly, but cable modems will remain the key broadband access technology
USA: an increasing mobile user base and fixed broadband service upgrades will lead to a revenue increase during the forecast period
USA: forecast changes

Methodology

  • Forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • Examples of forecast input drivers
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology

About the authors and publisher

List of figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, North America, 2017-2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2017 and 2023
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, North America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2013-2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2013-2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2013-2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2013-2023
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2013-2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2013-2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2013-2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2013-2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2013-2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2013-2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2013-2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2013-2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, USA, 2013-2023
Figure 45a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 45b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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