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Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4720235
  • Report
  • December 2018
  • Region: Middle East, Africa
  • 44 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Telecoms revenue will increase because growth in spending on data services will offset the effects of increasing competition and market saturation."

We anticipate that there will be moderate growth of telecoms services revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Demand will be tempered by market saturation, challenging socioeconomic conditions and fierce competition. This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for MENA as a whole and for 12 key countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Chapter No.
10. Telecoms revenue in Middle East and North Africa will increase despite increasing competition and market saturation, driven by strong demand for data
11. Telecoms retail revenue will increase in most countries by 2023, primarily driven by the demand for mobile data and fixed broadband services
12. Geographical coverage: we model 12 telecoms markets, which will account for 91. 2% of telecoms service revenue (excluding pay TV) in MENA in 2023
13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
14. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
15. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
16. Market context: the region is economically diverse and retail spend per capita on telecoms services is correlated with GDP trends
17. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
18. Key drivers at a glance for each country in the Middle East and North Africa
19. Market overview: mobile services will account for most of the revenue in the region, but fixed broadband and business services will see the strongest revenue growth
20. Mobile: accelerating LTE take-up and the launch of 5G mobile services in 2019 will contribute to traffic growth and will reduce the decline in ARPU
21. Mobile: market saturation and economic slowdown will moderate the penetration growth
22. Mobile: increasing demand for mobile data services and users' migration to contract plans will help to reduce the rate of ARPU decline
23. Mobile: data revenue driven by the demand for digital services and an increase in 4G/5G connections will help to offset declines in legacy services revenue
24. Fixed: NGA's share of broadband connections will grow significantly due to a large number of infrastructure investments
25. Fixed: broadband penetration growth will continue in all countries because demand for high-speed connections is high and most markets are not yet saturated
26. Fixed: IPTV/video service upsell and speed upgrades will ensure that ASPU levels continue to be stable
27. Fixed: broadband connections and revenue will grow in the forecast period driven by network roll-out and service demand
28. Business services: operator revenue from large enterprises will rise as the demand for data connectivity, IoT and other business services grows
29. IoT: the IoT market will generate just over USD6 billion in revenue in 2023 supported by strong growth in the number of M2M connections
30. Pay TV: revenue growth will be strong in the traditional and ‘OTT to the TV' segments
31. Individual country forecasts
32. Egypt: the telecoms sector is supported by promising economic conditions, the demand for 4G services and robust levels of infrastructure investment
33. Egypt: strong demand for data will continue to boost 4G and fixed broadband take-up during the forecast period
34. Egypt: 4G will continue to boost the mobile market, but competition in the fixed market is yet to operate on any meaningful level
35. Egypt: forecast changes
36. Kuwait: recent market recovery and investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future revenue growth
37. Kuwait: 4G will account for an increasing share of mobile connections, driven by data demand, and 5G will be launched in 2019
38. Kuwait: the mobile market is poised for revenue growth thanks to increase in data demand
39. Kuwait: forecast changes
40. Oman: revenue growth will be steady despite the challenging market conditions created by a third mobile entrant and regulatory pressure
41. Oman: a third mobile player is expected to enter the market in 2019, which will support subscriber base growth but will erode market value
42. Oman: the identity of the third mobile entrant is uncertain, while theoutlook for fixed broadband remains positive
43. Oman: forecast changes
44. Qatar: enduring economic sanctions have negatively affected the market revenue, but the total revenue forecast remains positive
45. Qatar: strong demand for data, 4G/5G speeds and attractive data plans will help to increase the ratio of contract subscriptions and limit ARPU decline
46. Qatar: demand for fast broadband services will drive telecoms revenue growth in the forecast period
47. Qatar: forecast changes
48. Saudi Arabia: telecoms revenue will be buoyed by an economic recovery against the challenging demographic indicators and increased competition
49. Saudi Arabia: growing demand for data will offset the ongoing decline in revenue from legacy mobile services
50. Saudi Arabia: mobile revenue will return to positive growth after several years of consistent decline
51. Saudi Arabia: forecast changes
52. UAE: an improved economic outlook will support a positive trend in telecoms revenue growth despite the slow population growth
53. UAE: contract's share of mobile subscribers will increase, driven by data demand and the launch of 5G services that is expected in 2019
54. UAE: infrastructural investments will help operators to find new growth areas beyond broadband connectivity
55. UAE: forecast changes
56. Methodology
57. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
58. Examples of forecast input drivers
59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
60. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
61. About the authors

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017--2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017 and 2023
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018--2023), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013--2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), --2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), --2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), --2023 List of figures
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013--2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), --2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013--2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, --2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013--2023
Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2013--2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2013--2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2013--
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2013--2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2013--2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2013--2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2013--2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, --2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2013--2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2013--2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2013--2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2013--2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2013--2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2013--2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2013--2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2013--2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2013--2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2013--2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2013--2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2013--2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2013--2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2013--2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013--2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2013--2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013--2023
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2013--2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2013--2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2013--2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2013--2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2013--2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013--2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2013--2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013--2023
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2013--2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2013--2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013--2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2013--2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2013--2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2013--2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2013--2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2013--2023
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2013--2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2013--2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2013--2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2013--2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2013--2023
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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