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Country Risk Service Congo (Brazzaville) 4th Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4721001
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Congo's sovereign risk rating is at CCC. Higher oil prices are having a positive impact on Congo's economic growth, as well as on the fiscal and current accounts. These developments are also narrowing the overall external financing requirement. However, the state's ability to borrow at an affordable rate will continue to be hindered by a lack of transparency about the size and composition of the public debt stock, as well as domestic arrears to suppliers.

Currency risk is B-rated. The CFA franc is pegged to the euro and guaranteed by the French Treasury, which provides an element of currency stability. Congo's estimated import cover, at two months, has deteriorated, but is expected to rise to 2.3 months at end-2018, which lends support to the peg.

Banking sector risk is CCC-rated. Growth in credit as a proportion of GDP has slowed compared with three years ago, when the financial system was displaying the hallmarks of a credit bubble. Despite these improvements, the non-performing loan ratio (which has risen over the past two years because of the impact of government arrears to private suppliers, who then themselves fall into payment arrears) remains a concern.
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Country Risk Service Congo (Brazzaville) 4th Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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