Many saw the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s new presidential term as a window of opportunity for passing big decisions on restructuring of the gas market. The formation of a new government and media attacks on the Gazprom management were aimed at putting on the political agenda the issue of liberalisation of gas export and divestment of gas pipelines.
The beginning of export from, and accelerated commissioning of the capacities of, the Yamal LNG project and growth in the capitalisation of Novatek triggered a new phase of the fight for Gazprom’s export revenue and production assets. Especially considering that the resources available to the independent producers themselves prevent them even from maintaining gas production within reach of the Unified Gas Supply System, not to mention intensive expansion.
However, radical views on the development of the gas industry are countered by the need to ensure trouble-free gas supply to households and the national economy; Gazprom’s successes in export; and the carrying out of major infrastructure projects from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea to the Sea of Okhotsk. So the fight continues.
Read about these and other processes in the new report.
The report contains the following sections:
- Gazprom in the domestic gas market
- What the ratio between Gazprom and the independents looks like
- Supply dynamics and change of the Gazprom share
- Export to Europe: towards a new record
- It is already obvious that supply to Europe will reach a new all-time high. However, competition is on the rise too. The entire year Europe has discussed the arrival of American LNG and celebrated the completion of the TANAP gas pipeline
- The problem of Ukraine 2019: is a new transit war possible?
- This problem will have to be solved in conditions of fierce political fighting in Ukraine itself; increasing pressure of sanctions imposed by the US and UK; and international arbitration.
- Gazprom’s financial position
- An investment boom in an era of sanctions
- A medium-term forecast of developments
Chapter 1. Gazprom in Domestic Gas Market: Independents Slow Down
1.1 Gas production within reach of the UGSS: a Gazprom comeback
1.2 Is the fight for the domestic market over?
1.3 Gazprom’s pricing and incomes of in the domestic market
1.4 Exchange trade in gas in Russia
Chapter 2. Gas Export by Pipeline: Peak in Europe, Decline in Turkey
2.1 Gazprom in the European Union markets: towards new records
2.2 Gazprom in the Turkish market: turbulence as the strategic position is consolidated
2.3 Gazprom in the former Soviet Union
Chapter 3. The problem of Ukraine 2019: is a new transit war possible
3.1 Stockholm arbitration decisions on the gas contracts and their implications
3.2 Ukrainian transit after 2020
Chapter 4. Gazprom’s Eastern Projects: Growth of Power of Siberia
4.1 China’s gas hunger
4.2 Prospects for developing supply of Russian pipeline gas to China
Chapter 5. Gazprom’s Financial Position: Investment Boom in Era of Sanctions
5.1. Accelerated income growth
5.2. Gazprom’s capital investment and investment programme for 2016 and 2017
5.3. Gearing rises but remains reasonable
Chapter 6. Medium-term Forecast of Developments
All materials and sources used for issuing each report are thoroughly verified and analyzed by experts. The information is based on industry statistics, data of oil and gas companies, information of federal and regional mass-media, materials of conferences and round tables.
The analyst has pored on the following goals:
- Analyses of oil & gas and power industries, political risks within the energy sector, geopolitical problems in connection with the production of hydrocarbons and their supply to the global market, strategic development of companies, new production and transportation projects
- Consulting on the influence of political factors on the oil & gas business, decision-making within Russian energy companies and government bodies dealing with the energy industry
- Development of energy business concepts in Russia
- PR services for oil & gas corporations
- Analysis of images and reputations of energy corporations