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The FTTx Coverage and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2018-2025

  • ID: 4746646
  • Report
  • January 2019
  • Region: Global
  • 17 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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There is Significant Investment Occurring in Non-Incumbent FTTP Networks in Western Europe, but this is not Mirrored in all Developed Markets

The overall wireline next-generation access (NGA) coverage growth will slow in some markets, but there are still significant opportunities for new infrastructure players to spend on FTTx. There is also considerable potential for further investment in fibre in many emerging markets.

This report provides:

  • 7-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx
  • an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2025.

KEY METRICS

  • Coverage (premises passed)
  • Capex (split into network and connection)
  • Split by architecture/technology:
    • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/LAN
    • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
    • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1 (note: capex is not provided for cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1).

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE
The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.

key Questions Answered in this Report

  • How quickly will next-generation access (NGA) coverage grow across different global regions and individual markets?
  • Which markets represent the most promising opportunities for vendorsin terms of NGA coverage expansion?
  • To what extent can NGA coverage grow in emerging markets across the globe?
  • What will be the scale of roll-outs from non-incumbent FTTP operators?

Who Should Read this Report

  • This report provides strategic planners with detailed and comprehensive insight into the development of FTTx in comparable markets, allowing them to understand what level and type of investment is appropriate, and where opportunities lie.
  • For equipment vendors, construction businesses and component suppliers, it shows the scale of opportunity in FTTx.
  • The model can also serve several other functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios, including different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, and different completion dates.
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Chapter No.

5. Worldwide trends
6. There is still potential for growth in the global NGA coverage; this will be driven by NGA expansion in some emerging markets
7. FTTx capex will follow a downward trend over the forecast period driven by changing regional splits
8. Some emerging markets have lower-than-expected NGA coverage given the average income levels
9. India, Indonesia and Brazil will be leaders in terms of NGA coverage growth over the forecast period
10. The potential for new FTTP entrants differs according to the region
11. There is growing momentum behind FTTC-to-FTTP migration in many developed markets
12. There is a significant variation in FTTP connection costs depending on the market
13. Building types, regulation and video service requirements will all influence FTTP connection costs
14. Western Europe
15. There is strong interest in FTTP investment across Western Europe and this is reflected in continued high spending
16. Central and Eastern Europe
17. Investment in NGA infrastructure in CEE is focused on rural coverage expansion and the win-back strategies of incumbents in urban areas
18. Middle East and North Africa
19. Investment in FTTP will continue in markets in the Gulf region, and Egypt is leading the way for fibre roll-outs in the North African region
20. Sub-Saharan Africa
21. Challenges related to affordability and infrastructure availability will limit the number of FTTP deployments in Sub-Saharan Africa
22. Emerging Asia–Pacific
23. Upgrades to next-generation PON FTTP networks are becoming more commonplace in China and fixed broadband speeds are rapidly increasing
24. There are still opportunities for significant NGA coverage growth in EMAP, particularly in India
25. Developed Asia–Pacific
26. Upgrades to existing fibre deployments are becoming more important in DVAP
27. North America
28. FTTP is merely one of a number of technologies in which US operators are investing
29. Latin America
30. There is significant growth in FTTP investments from incumbents, MNOs and smaller players in Brazil
31. Forecast methodology and assumptions
32. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
33. Definitions
34. We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
35. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies

List of Figures
Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2014–2025
Figure 2: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2014–2025
Figure 3: NGA coverage at the end of 2018 and GDP per capita (PPP), emerging markets
Figure 4: NGA coverage, selected emerging markets, 2018 and 2025
Figure 5: Non-incumbent FTTP coverage, selected Western European countries, 2018 and 2025
Figure 6: FTTC premises passed coverage by selected market, 2017–2025
Figure 7: FTTx connection capex total and as a proportion of total FTTx capex, worldwide, 2018–2025
Figure 8: FTTP connection costs by selected operator
Figure 9: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2016–2025
Figure 10: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2016–2025
Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2025
Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2025
Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2025
Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2025
Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2025
Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2025
Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2016–2025
Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2016–2025
Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2016–2025
Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2016–2025
Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2025
Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2025
Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2016–2025
Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2016–2025
Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2016–2025
Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2016–2025
Figure 27: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 28: Definitions used in this report
Figure 29: Capex model outline
Figure 30: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements

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  • Argentina
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Brazil
  • Bulgaria
  • Canada
  • Chile
  • China
  • Colombia
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Ghana
  • Greece
  • Hong Kong
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Ireland
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Kenya
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Malaysia
  • Mexico
  • Netherlands
  • New Zealand
  • Nigeria
  • Norway
  • Oman
  • Peru
  • Philippines
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Serbia
  • Singapore
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Turkey
  • UAE
  • UK
  • USA
  • Ukraine
  • Uruguay
  • Vietnam
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