The 2019 Credit Card Data Book, the latest edition of the annual compilation of 12 essential credit card metrics has been released. The report, which provides a view of credit card portfolio volumes, household debt, and open accounts, projects credit risk and revenue results into the next decade.
Readers will get a deeper understanding of credit risk in this year’s report along with a detailed explanation of how the credit card delinquency process works. Early and late delinquencies have a direct impact on credit card profitability, which is expressed through the return on assets (ROA) metric. In the United States, credit card ROA has been steadily falling from the 4.94% achieved in 2014. In this report, the author projects 2.4% ROA for 2020.
“As 2019 begins, card issuers need to be planning for 2020 and should expect slower growth, slimmer profits, and tighter lending,” commented the author of the research report. “Pay attention to how top issuers are keeping their portfolios in check, as issuers outside of the top 100 are seeing severe risk. In 2018, top issuers experienced credit losses of 3.81% of their receivables while those outside of the top 100 saw their rates surge to 7.92%. If this persists, some market consolidation is likely,” Riley continued.
Highlights of the research report include:
- Revolving debt forecasted through 2022
- Projected U.S. household debt through 2021
- Anticipated U.S. credit card account growth through 2022
- New, early, and late delinquency volumes through 2020
- Prime lending rates, new accounts, and disposable household budgets through 2020
Credit Card Portfolios: Measuring Consumer Credit
- Revolving Debt in the United States
- Competing for Share of Consumers' Borrowing Capacity
- Account Growth Will Slow
- The Credit Card Aging Process
- Early Credit Card Delinquency Is Stabilizing
- Stabilization Spreads Across Loan Types
- The Flow Toward Write-off Slows, but Loss Rate Varies Widely Among Issuers
Credit Card Dynamics
- Return on Assets (ROA)
- New Account Trends: Consumer Demand vs. Credit Policy
- Credit Card Contingent Liability on Course for a New Peak
- Record Low Unemployment Rate
- The Prime Interest Rate Will Likely Rise
- The Household Budget