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Country Risk Service Italy 1st Quarter Updater

  • ID: 4753845
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Italy
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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In The Economist Intelligence Unit's last ratings report, in December 2018, Italy's sovereign risk score worsened marginally, from 39 to 40, but remained at the less risky end of the BB band. This reflects high public debt and a weak economy, which has constrained revenue and curtailed plans to cut spending. We expect an average budget deficit of 2.9% of GDP on average in 2019-20, keeping the public debt above 130% of GDP.

The score is stable at 26, and the rating remains at A. An improved economic and institutional outlook for the euro zone has increased the bloc's resilience to political risk and external shocks, and structural support for the currency comes from a large regional current-account surplus. We expect the euro to average US$1.21:EUR1 in 2019-20, after US$1.18:EUR1 in 2018.

Banking risk remains at the top end of the BB band, with a marginal improvement in the score in our last ratings report, to 39. There has been progress in dealing with the sector's weakness, but non-performing loans remain elevated, undermining already weak profitability, which leaves the sector vulnerable to a renewed loss of investor confidence.
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Country Risk Service Italy 1st Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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