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IoT forecast: Connections, Revenue and Technology Trends 2018-2027

  • ID: 4758228
  • Report
  • March 2019
  • Region: Global
  • 25 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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By 2027, Only 2% of all IoT Connections will be made using 2G, as Operators Close their Networks

"By 2027, only 2% of all IoT connections will be made using 2G, as operators close their networks; 5G will be in ascendancy and will power 3% of all IoT connections, primarily in the automotive sector."

The IoT opportunity for network operators continues to grow. We forecast that the total number of connections will increase to 5.4 billion in 2027, although a high degree of uncertainty still exists for some LPWA use cases. Connectivity revenue will increase to USD213 billion by 2027 but is subject to increasing competition. ARPC erosion will be significant over the forecast period. This report outlines the technology trends, sector shares and the revenue trajectories for cellular and LPWA connectivity in the IoT market.

This report includes the analysis of:

  • technology trends including the number of 2G, 3G/4G, 5G, NB-IoT, LTE-M and ‘other LPWA’ connections worldwide
  • key industry sectors and the share of connections and revenue that they contribute
  • the revenue generated worldwide from hardware, applications and connectivity services.

Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Who Should Read this Report

This report addresses the requirements of executives and analysts that are assessing the demand for IoT supported by cellular and LPWA networks. These include:

  • senior executives of IoT business units
  • senior executives responsible for R&D and network innovation
  • market analysts responsible for M2M market sizing.

Key metrics

  • Revenue for the following value chain elements:
    • applications
    • connectivity services
    • IoT hardware.
  • IoT connections worldwide and by region, by technology type:
    • 2G
    • 3G/4G
    • 5G
    • NB-IoT
    • LTE-M
    • 'other LPWA'
  • Connections and revenue, by sector:
    • automotive
    • finance
    • health
    • industries
    • smart cities
    • retail
    • smart buildings
    • utilities
    • agriculture
    • tracking
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Chapter Nos.
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: the number of IoT connections will grow strongly over the forecast period, driven by an increase in LPWA connectivity
9. Worldwide: significant uncertainty regarding LPWA adoption prevails in some sectors
10. Worldwide: the largest number of 5G IoT connections will come from emerging Asia-Pacific due to the dominance of China
11. Worldwide: applications will generate most of the IoT revenue because specialist assets and skills are required to deliver them to enterprises
12. Worldwide: revenue from LPWA connectivity will be low and subject to intense pricing pressure as new connectivity suppliers enter the market
13. Worldwide: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector, despite large numbers of LPWA connections from elsewhere
14. Worldwide: China will continue to be the largest single IoT market in 2027
15. Western Europe
16. Western Europe: LoRa operators took an early lead in the western European LPWA market in terms of connection numbers, but NB-IoT will dominate by 2027
17. Western Europe: the automotive sector' s share of IoT revenue will decline during the forecast period because LPWA connectivity will spur growth in new sectors
18. Central and Eastern Europe
19. Central and Eastern Europe: operators are deploying NB-IoT across the region and are trialling new services based on this technology
20. Central and Eastern Europe: LPWA networks in the region are expanding, and LPWA technology will start to contribute significantly to revenue growth
21. Middle East and North Africa
22. Middle East and North Africa: LPWA network deployment has been slower than in other developed regions; there are currently only three commercial networks
23. Middle East and North Africa: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow to over USD6.9 billion; 12% of this will come from connectivity
24. Sub-Saharan Africa
25. Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa dominated the region' s IoT market in 2018, and generated 67% of all regional connections
26. Sub-Saharan Africa: new entrants will compete fiercely for connectivity contracts, and connectivity ARPC will probably decline as a result
27. Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China
28. Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China: 2G networks currently support the majority of IoT connections, but this technology will be superseded by NBIoT by 2027
29. Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China: few operators in the region are well-positioned to capture a large share of IoT revenue beyond connectivity
30. China
31. China: China will be the largest 5G IoT market in the world by 2027 in terms of connections; almost 50% of all 5G IoT connections will come from China by 2027
32. China: Chinese operators are investing significantly to develop applications and sector-specific services
33. Developed Asia-Pacific
34. Developed Asia-Pacific: operators in the region have been slow to exploit the IoT opportunity, but investment in IoT is growing
35. Developed Asia-Pacific: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow to 27.6 billion in 2027, and regional operators will increase their investments to take a larger share
36. North America
37. North America: the USA is one of the most successful IoT markets; the number of IoT connections will grow to 947 million by 2027
38. North America: the region will generate the highest IoT revenue of all regions worldwide in 2027 (USD51 billion)
39. Latin America
40. Latin America: Brazil is the largest IoT market in the region; it had over 20 million connections in 2018 and accounted for 54% of all regional IoT connections
41. Latin America: IoT connectivity revenue will grow to USD1.6 billion across the region, 40% of which will come from LPWA connectivity in 2027
42. Forecast methodology and assumptions
43. Comparison of the 2018 forecast with the new 2019 forecast
44. Definitions [1]
45. Definitions [2]
46. Definitions [3]
47. Definitions [4]
48. Definitions [5]
49. Definitions [6]
50. Definitions [7]
51. Definitions [8]
52. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: IoT connections by network type, worldwide, 2027
Figure 2: Total IoT connections by network type, 2015-2027
Figure 3: Existing, emerging and potential LPWA applications
Figure 4: 5G IoT connections by region, 2020-2027
Figure 5: Revenue by type and blended ARPC, worldwide, 2015-2027
Figure 6: Cellular value chain revenue, worldwide, 2027
Figure 7: LPWA value chain revenue, worldwide, 2027
Figure 8: Cellular and LPWA connectivity revenue and ARPU, 2015-2027
Figure 9: Connections share by sector, worldwide, 2015-2027
Figure 10: Connectivity revenue share by sector, worldwide, 2015-2027
Figure 11: Total IoT connections and total value chain revenue by region, 2027
Figure 12: Share of IoT connections by network type, WE, 2018 and 2027
Figure 13: Connections by sector, WE, 2015 and 2027
Figure 14: 5G connections by sector, WE, 2020-2027
Figure 15: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, WE, 2015-2027
Figure 16: Connectivity revenue share by sector, WE, 2015-2027
Figure 17: Share of IoT connections by network type, CEE, 2018 and 2027
Figure 18: Connections by sector, CEE, 2015 and 2027
Figure 19: Share of IoT connections by sector, CEE, 2015-2027
Figure 20: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, CEE, 2015-2027
Figure 21: Connectivity revenue share by sector, CEE, 2015-2027
Figure 22: Share of IoT connections by network type, MENA, 2018 and 2027
Figure 23: Connections by sector, MENA, 2015 and 2027
Figure 24: Share of IoT connections by sector, MENA, 2015-2027
Figure 25: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, MENA, 2015-2027
Figure 26: Connectivity revenue share by sector, MENA, 2015-2027
Figure 27: Share of IoT connections by network type, SSA, 2018 and 2027
Figure 28: Connections by sector, SSA, 2015 and 2027
Figure 29: IoT connections by network type, South Africa, 2015-2027
Figure 30: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, SSA, 2015-2027
Figure 31: Split of IoT revenue between South Africa and the rest of SSA, 2027
Figure 32: Share of IoT connections by network type, EMAP (excluding China), 2018 and 2027
Figure 33: Connections by sector, EMAP (excluding China), 2015 and 2027
Figure 34: IoT connections by network type, Indonesia, 2015-2027
Figure 35: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, EMAP (excluding China), 2015-2027
Figure 36: Connectivity revenue share by sector, EMAP (excluding China), 2015-2027
Figure 37: Share of IoT connections by network type, China, 2018 and 2027
Figure 38: Connections by sector, China, 2015 and 2027
Figure 39: 5G connections by sector, China, 2020-2027
Figure 40: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, China, 2015-2027
Figure 41: Connectivity revenue share by sector, China, 2015-2027
Figure 42: Share of IoT connections by network type, DVAP, 2018 and 2027
Figure 43: Connections by sector, DVAP, 2015 and 2027
Figure 44: Share of IoT connections by sector, DVAP, 2015-2027
Figure 45: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, DVAP, 2015-2027
Figure 46: Connectivity revenue share by sector, DVAP, 2015-2027
Figure 47: Share of IoT connections by network type, NA, 2018 and 2027
Figure 48: Connections by sector, NA, 2015 and 2027
Figure 49: 5G connections by sector, USA, 2020-2027
Figure 50: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, NA, 2015-2027
Figure 51: Connectivity revenue share by sector, NA, 2015-2027
Figure 52: Share of IoT connections by network type, LATAM, 2018 and 2027
Figure 53: Connections by sector, LATAM, 2015 and 2027
Figure 54: IoT connections by sector, Brazil, 2015-2027
Figure 55: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, LATAM, 2015-2027
Figure 56: Connectivity revenue share by sector, Brazil, 2015-2027
Figure 57: Previous IoT connections forecast versus new IoT connections forecast, worldwide, 2015-2026
Figure 58: Previous total value chain revenue forecast versus new total value chain revenue forecast, worldwide, 2015-2026
Figure 59: Previous connectivity revenue forecast versus new connectivity revenue forecast, worldwide, 2015-2026
Figure 60: Network definitions
Figure 61: Other definitions
Figure 62a: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62b: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62c: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62d: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62e: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62f: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications

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