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The Communication Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2018–2023

  • ID: 4760582
  • Report
  • February 2019
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 46 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Growth in Mobile Handset and Fixed Broadband Retail Revenue will be Modest in the DVAP Region over the Forecast Period

Technological developments, a good economic outlook and high GDP per capita in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) will result in revenue growth in almost all service segments apart from traditional voice services. In this report, we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for seven individually modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the DVAP region as a whole and for seven key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Chapter Nos.
9. Executive summary and recommendations
10. The total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow steadily in all segments apart from traditional voice
11. The overall retail revenue growth rate in the region will be low; Japan, New Zealand and South Korea will see the most growth
12. Geographical coverage: by 2023, the 4G/5G and NGA share of connections will approach 100% in most DVAP countries
13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
14. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
15. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
16. Market context: operators in developed Asia–Pacific benefit from a relatively high GDP per capita, which drives retail spending on telecommunications services
17. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
18. Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia–Pacific market
19. Market overview: mobile data will drive revenue growth in DVAP; fixed broadband revenue will not offset declining fixed voice revenue
20. Mobile: 99.5% of mobile connections in DVAP will use 4G or 5G in 2023
21. Mobile: the demand for data services will help to reduce ARPU declines
22. Mobile: 5G roll-out plans are gathering pace while operators are aiming to capitalise on opportunities in the IoT segment
23. Fixed: the vast majority of households in DVAP will use NGA broadband connections by 2023
24. Fixed: increasing competition in New Zealand will result in a rapid increase in fixed broadband household penetration and will contribute to ASPU declines
25. Fixed: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction
26. Business services: growth in the business service segment in DVAP will slow down
27. IoT: the automotive and smart building segments will generate a significant share of IoT revenue by 2023
28. Pay TV: traditional pay-TV revenue growth will be slow as markets are saturated and OTT competition is growing quickly
29. Individual country forecasts
30. Australia: fixed broadband revenue growth will be faster than the revenue growth in the mobile handset segment
31. Australia: the number of high-speed broadband connections is increasing quickly as the roll-out of NBN gathers pace
32. Australia: competition in both fixed and mobile market segments will intensify, resulting in a slight decline in total telecoms revenue by 2023
33. Australia: forecast changes
34. Hong Kong: IoT will account for the overwhelming majority of new connections, but its impact on revenue will remain negligible
35. Hong Kong: FTTP/B will continue to be the key broadband access technology
36. Hong Kong: competition in the fixed broadband segment has declined and the mobile segment is now following suit
37. Hong Kong: forecast changes
38. Japan: the number of mobile IoT connections will grow rapidly, while handset penetration will remain relatively stable
39. Japan: the number of FBB connections will increase due to continued fiber take-up; FBB revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2% up to 2023
40. Japan: operators are placing a focus on churn reduction strategies across the fixed and mobile sectors
41. Japan: forecast changes
42. New Zealand: fixed services revenue will remain almost flat due to strong competition in the fixed broadband market
43. New Zealand: MNOs are focused on migrating subscribers from prepaid to contract plans
44. New Zealand: unlimited mobile data plans were launched in 2017
45. New Zealand: forecast changes
46. Singapore: mobile service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 0.5% between 2018 and 2023
47. Singapore: the number of DSL and cable connections will drop to 0 by the end of 2019
48. Singapore: the mobile market is experiencing structural changes and a fourth MNO will enter the market in 2019
49. Singapore: forecast changes
50. South Korea: telecoms revenue will increase modestly, largely thanks to growth in mobile data and fixed broadband revenue
51. South Korea: South Korea will have the highest share of 5G mobile connections in the DVAP region in 2023
52. South Korea: MNOs plan to launch consumer 5G offers in 2019; 10Gbps broadband services were launched in 4Q 2018
53. South Korea: forecast changes
54. Taiwan: service revenue in both fixed and mobile segments will decline mildly due to saturated markets and stiff competition
55. Taiwan: rapid growth in mobile data usage and strong 5G take-up will not prevent the continued decline in mobile ARPU
56. Taiwan: the prevalence of unlimited mobile data packages will dampen revenue growth in both the fixed and mobile segments
57. Taiwan: forecast changes
58. Methodology
59. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
60. Examples of forecast input drivers
61. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
62. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
63. About the authors

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV1 retail revenue by type and total service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country,developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017 and 20231
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 5: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in developed Asia–Pacific, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory(2018–2023), by country, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, developed Asia–Pacific (million),2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia–Pacific (USD per month),2013–2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), developedAsia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion),2013–2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, developed Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Australia (AUD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Australia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Australia, 2013–2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Australia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Australia, 2013–2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Australia(AUD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Australia (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Australia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Australia, 2013–2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Hong Kong (HKD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2013–2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Hong Kong, 2013–2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2013–2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Hong Kong,2013–2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, HongKong (HKD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Hong Kong (MB per month),2013–2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Hong Kong (million), 2013–2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,Hong Kong, 2013–2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Japan (JPY trillion),2013–2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Japan (million), 2013–2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Japan, 2013–2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Japan (million), 2013–2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Japan, 2013–2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2013–2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Japan (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Japan (million), 2013–2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,Japan, 2013–2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, New Zealand (NewZealandD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2013–2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, New Zealand, 2013–2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2013–2023
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, New Zealand, 2013–2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, New Zealand (New Zealand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, New Zealand (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, New Zealand (million), 2013–2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, New Zealand, 2013–2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Singapore (SGD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Singapore (million), 2013–2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Singapore, 2013–2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Singapore (million), 2013–2023
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Singapore, 2013–2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Singapore (SGD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Singapore (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Singapore (million), 2013–2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2013–2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Korea (KRW trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, South Korea (million), 2013–2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Korea, 2013–2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, South Korea (million), 2013–2023
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Korea, 2013–2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Korea (KRW thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Korea (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, South Korea (million), 2013–2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,South Korea, 2013–2023
Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Taiwan (two billion), 2013–2023
Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2013–2023
Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Taiwan, 2013–2023
Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2013–2023
Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Taiwan, 2013–2023
Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Taiwan (TWD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Taiwan (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Taiwan (million), 2013–2023
Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2013–2023
Figure 90a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 90b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • New Zealand
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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