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The Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

  • ID: 4763796
  • Report
  • April 2019
  • Region: Global
  • 50 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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"Telecoms service revenue will continue to grow worldwide, primarily due to the continuous demand for mobile data services."

Mobile handset revenue will account for 44.9% of the total service revenue in 2023 due to the mobile-centric nature of most regions. Regions with significant populations are also still exhibiting growth in this segment. This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

This report and data annex provide:

  • A 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and for eight regions
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each geographical region, and a worldwide summary
  • An overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
  • A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Worldwide totals are refreshed every time any of the regional results are updated.

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Executive summary and recommendations

  • The growth in global telecoms service revenue will be primarily driven by growth in the number of mobile handsets in developing markets
  • Retail revenue growth is largely dictated by market maturity; saturated markets will exhibit much less revenue growth in the period to 2023
  • Geographical coverage: SSA and MENA are the only regions in which the shares of 4G/5G and NGA connections will be less than 70% and 80%, respectively, by 2023
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • Global forecasts and regional comparison
  • Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.5% in CEE to 2.1% in SSA
  • Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • Key drivers at a glance for each region
  • Market overview: fixed broadband revenue will grow more than mobile handset revenue; the latter will continue to account for the majority of total revenue by 2023
  • Mobile: mobile data traffic will increase thanks to 5G launches in developed markets and increasing 4G take-up in developing markets
  • Mobile: increased data consumption combined with migration from prepaid to contract plans will decrease the rate of ARPU decline in the forecast period
  • Mobile: 5G roll-outs and digital services will be key areas for operator investment
  • Fixed: fixed revenue growth will be driven by increased competition in the NGA segment in most regions as the number of fibre roll-outs increases

Fixed: North America is the only region in which fixed broadband ASPU will grow significantly thanks to limited competition

  • Fixed: the NGA share of connections will be over 80% in most regions; the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa are the exceptions
  • Business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
  • IoT: automotive and smart building applications will be the key drivers of IoT revenue worldwide
  • Pay TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline after 2019
  • Regional forecasts
  • Western Europe: increased fixed broadband penetration and business services will be the main drivers of total telecoms revenue growth
  • Western Europe: 4G/LTE take-up will continue to drive growth in mobile data usage, but ARPU will remain flat during the forecast period
  • Western Europe: 5G spectrum auctions and launches of 5G services will be an important part of operators’ activity in Western Europe
  • Western Europe: forecast changes
  • Central and Eastern Europe: total telecoms revenue growth will be driven by smartphone adoption and the use of high-value handset data plans
  • Central and Eastern Europe: the penetration of NGA technologies will increase due to the limited legacy infrastructure in CEE
  • Central and Eastern Europe: fixed-mobile converged (FMC) bundles and speed upgrades will help operators to maintain revenue growth
  • Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow during the forecast period

Emerging Asia-Pacific: investment in NGA and competition will drive the growth of fixed broadband household penetration in many countries

  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: competition in both the mobile and fixed markets is expected to intensify across the region
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: mobile data will drive revenue growth in DVAP; fixed broadband revenue will not offset declining fixed voice revenue
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: 99.5% of mobile connections in DVAP will use 4G or 5G in 2023
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
  • Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the revenue, but fixed broadband will have the strongest revenue growth
  • Middle East and North Africa: LTE take-up and the launch of 5G services in 2019 will contribute to traffic growth and will reduce the ARPU decline
  • Middle East and North Africa: broadband connections and revenue will grow in the forecast period driven by network roll-out and service demand
  • Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be key to service revenue growth
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: FBB services offer strong growth opportunities but they will remain inaccessible to the majority of the region’s population
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes

Latin America: mobile, and particularly handset data, will account for the majority of telecoms revenue growth in the next 5 years

  • Latin America: operators’ fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on NGA adoption and fixed broadband penetration
  • Latin America: growth in mobile connectivity will be limited, but ARPU will be positively affected by an increase in the contract share of connections
  • Latin America: forecast changes
  • North America: the total telecoms service revenue will grow modestly, mostly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue
  • North America: the growth in mobile penetration will mostly come from Canada, where the mobile market is less competitive than in the USA
  • North America: the competitive market pressure will ease and MNOs will look for new opportunities in the FWA segment
  • North America: forecast changes
  • Methodology
  • Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • Examples of forecast input drivers
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

List of Figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by region, worldwide, 2017-2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2017 and 2023
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide forecasts
Figure 5: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by region, worldwide
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, worldwide (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, worldwide (million), 2013-2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, worldwide (million), 2013-2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2013-2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, worldwide (million), 2013-2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, worldwide (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, worldwide, 2013-2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (billion), 2013-2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2013-2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia-Pacific (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2013-2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2013-2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2013-2023
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, developed Asia-Pacific (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia-Pacific (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2013-2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2013-2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013-2023
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013-2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013-2023
Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Latin America, 2013-2023
Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin America (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2013-2023
Figure 90: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2013-2023
Figure 91: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 92: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 93: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 94: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 95: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, North America (USD per month), 2013-2023
Figure 96: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2013-2023
Figure 97: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2013-2023
Figure 98: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, North America, 2013-2023
Figure 99a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 99b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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