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The Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 4764596
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 26 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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It is Hard to Envisage Anything Other Than a Significant Slowdown in Cellular Data Traffic Growth Rates During the Forecast Period

There is much greater scope for further cellular data traffic increases in emerging markets than in developed markets due to the absence of high fixed wireline broadband penetration.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in 8 regions and in selected countries
  • Analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • Discussion of the impact of cost and pricing on data traffic
  • Analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.
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Executive Summary

  • Executive summary: increased usage at home is likely to be the biggest driver of cellular data traffic growth in the long term

Worldwide Trends

  • Cellular data traffic in emerging markets grew strongly in 2018 and we forecast that 79% of all cellular data traffic will come from these markets in 2024
  • The substitution of wireline broadband is a very important driver of cellular data traffic growth in emerging markets
  • Cellular data traffic growth rates in most developed markets are continuing to decline
  • 5G will only have a limited impact on prevailing cellular data traffic trends
  • 5G fixed–wireless, cloud gaming, AR and VR are all areas that could drive data traffic growth, but the impact of 5G fixed–wireless is more certain
  • New device form factors such as foldable phones are not expected to significantly affect cellular data traffic trends
  • The data-only device share of total cellular data traffic is dominated by local factors and there is no clear single global trend
  • The relevance of public Wi-Fi will be limited in many countries during the forecast period, but in-home Wi-Fi appears to be more secure against cellular inroads

Western Europe

  • Western Europe: the overall data traffic growth rate in Western Europe decreased in 2018, but not dramatically
  • Western Europe: we continue to forecast a downward trend in the overall cellular data traffic growth

Central and Eastern Europe

  • Central and Eastern Europe: the cellular data traffic growth rate slowed down in CEE in 2018
  • Central and Eastern Europe: there is little prospect of widespread wireline substitution in CEE during the forecast period

Middle East and North Africa

  • Middle East and North Africa: data usage is far higher in Saudi Arabia than in the other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries that we forecast individually
  • Middle East and North Africa: the cellular data share of the total data traffic will decline in some countries in MENA

Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Sub-Saharan Africa: traffic growth remained strong in 2018 and similar to that in 2017
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: increases in smartphone penetration and the total number of data users will help to drive traffic growth

Emerging Asia-Pacific

  • Emerging Asia–Pacific: traffic growth continued to be very strong in 2018, but the growth rate was less than that in 2017
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific: the rate of traffic growth will decrease from the exceedingly high levels that were seen in 2017 and 2018

Developed Asia-Pacific

  • Developed Asia–Pacific: traffic growth is generally slowing, but is set to remain strong in 2019
  • Developed Asia–Pacific: cellular data traffic growth rates are not expected to accelerate significantly

North America

  • North America: the reported cellular data traffic growth was extremely low in the USA in 2017
  • North America: 5G will play a significant role in the cellular data traffic trends in the USA during the forecast period

Latin America

  • Latin America: the cellular data traffic growth rate continues to be high
  • Latin America: there is still potential for strong cellular data traffic growth in LATAM


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