+353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD
+44-20-3973-8888REST OF WORLD
1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S
1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)

PRINTER FRIENDLY

Future Supplier of Softwood Lumber to the US Market - Supply and Demand Outlook 2017-2030

  • ID: 4769514
  • Report
  • Region: United States
  • 215 pages
  • Wood Resources International
1 of 4
  • Updated to include 2017 US softwood lumber demand and supply, and 2018 log prices and lumber production costs

The purpose of the 2018 study was to evaluate how future US demand for softwood lumber will be met as the supply dynamics of North America change and off-shore supply and production economics evolve over the next decade.  

The 215-page study covers:

I. Demand: Projected Demand for Softwood Lumber in the US for the period 2017-2030: Future lumber consumption is based on projections of housing starts (demographics, single/multi-family starts and average size), repair & remodeling expenditures and related softwood lumber consumption, and the evolution of other demand sectors including nonresidential housing - CLT, and other industrial uses. 
 
II. Supply: Projected Sources of Softwood Lumber Supply 2017-2030: This part centers on profiles of key supply regions including New Zealand, Chile, Brazil, Sweden, Eastern Canada, Western Canada, the US Northwest and the US South. Each profile analyzes the current supply and use of softwood logs in the region, a projection of future timber supply and log costs, an overview of the softwood sawmill industry and lumber production forecasts. Also included in the analysis is a lumber production cost model for product delivery to the US market. Mini-profiles are also provided for Germany, Finland, Latvia, and Russia.

III. Supply Curve Analysis: The study constructs a US softwood lumber supply curve using alternative projections of softwood lumber demand and supply on a delivered cost basis to identify the most likely suppliers to the US market, and discuss how delivered costs and trade may be impacted by changing sources of supply.
 
IV. Conclusions and Sensitivities: In addition to reporting results for various demand scenarios, the study considers sensitivities based on investment capital and exchange rates, and offers insight into the implications of the changing US softwood lumber situation on timberland investments.
 
Why Purchase This Report?
The United States is the world’s largest consumer and importer of softwood lumber and it is forecasted that wood consumption will increase in the future. The country mostly relies on domestically sourced lumber but import volumes to the US are substantial and reached 34% of total consumption in 2016. 

Changes in the availability of timber resources and forecasted increases in wood raw-material costs for sawmills around the world are likely to impact the trade of softwood lumber to the US in the future. Any company, or individual, that needs to better understand the outlook for US lumber demand, and potential changes in future supply sources to the US softwood lumber market would benefit from the detailed insights that this new multi-client study provides.

Who Will Benefit Most from This Comprehensive Study?

  • Industrial Forest Owners
  • TIMO’s and REIT’s
  • Pension Funds
  • Lumber Companies
  • Forest Industry Consultants
  • Governmental Agencies
  • Housing Construction Companies
  • Financial Institutions
  • Lumber Traders
  • Lumber Wholesalers
  • DIY Home Center
  • Furniture Manufacturers
  • Freight Forwarding Companies
  • Real Estate Companies

Important Questions Addressed in the Report:

  • What is the Outlook for Softwood Lumber Production Capacity in the US South?
  • Will European Sawmills be Competitive in the US Market in the Coming Decade?
  • Can Chile Increase Softwood Lumber Exports to the US?
  • How much will Lumber Shipments from British Columbia to the US Decline by 2030?
  • Can Timber Harvests and Lumber production in Eastern Canada Increase in the Future?
  • Can the US NW materially Increase Timber Harvests and will Log Exports Drop?
  • Will Russia be an Important Softwood Lumber Supplier to the US in the Future?
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
2 of 4

Findings and Implications  

I. Demand for Softwood Lumber in the United States 
a. Estimated Use of Industrial Roundwood in the US in 2017
b. Estimated Use of Softwood Lumber in the US in 2017
c. Drivers and Forecasts of Softwood Lumber Demand – Base Case 
d. Softwood Lumber Forecast Sensitivities 
e. References 

II. US South Softwood Lumber Profile 
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses 
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
e. Lumber Production and Trade 
f. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
g. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
h. References 

III. US Pacific Northwest Softwood Lumber Profile
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses 
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
e. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
f. Lumber Production and Trade 
g. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
h. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
i. References 

IV. Western Canada Softwood Lumber Profile
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses 
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
e. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030                                                                                                                           
f. Lumber Production and Trade  
g. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market  
h. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US  
i. References  

V. Eastern Canada Softwood Lumber Profile   
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply  
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses  
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers  
d. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
e. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
f. Lumber Production and Trade 
g. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
h. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
i. References

VI. New Zealand Softwood Lumber Profile 
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses 
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Exports 
e. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
f. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
g. Lumber Production and Trade 
h. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
i. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
j. References 

VII. Chile Softwood Lumber Profile
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
e. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
f. Lumber Production and Trade 
g. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
h. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
i. References 
                                                                                                                      
VIII. Brazil Softwood Lumber Profile
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses 
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
e. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
f. Lumber Production and Trade 
g. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
h. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
i. References 

IX. Sweden Softwood Lumber Profile
a. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply
b. Domestic Roundwood Consumption and End-Uses 
c. Conifer Log Prices and Cost Drivers 
d. Conifer Log Supply Outlook to 2030
e. Conifer Log Price Outlook to 2030
f. Lumber Production and Trade 
g. Lumber Manufacturing Costs to the US Market 
h. Outlook for Lumber Production and Exports, Total and to the US 
i. References 

X. The Baltic – Historic Exporters of Softwood Lumber

a. Germany 
i. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply
ii. Conifer Log Prices and Log Price Outlook 
iii. Softwood Lumber Production and Trade 
iv. Outlook for Lumber Exports to the US 
v. References 
 
b. Finland
i. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
ii. Conifer Log prices and Log Price Outlook 
iii. Softwood Lumber Production and Trade 
iv. Outlook for Lumber Exports to the US 
v. References 
                                                                                                                    
c. Latvia 
i. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
ii. Conifer Log prices and Log Price Outlook
iii. Softwood Lumber Production and Trade 
iv. Outlook for Lumber Exports to the US 
v. References 
 
d. Northwestern Russia 
i. Forest Resources and Conifer Roundwood Supply 
ii. Conifer Log Prices and Log Price Outlook 
iii. Softwood Lumber Production and Trade 
iv. Outlook for Lumber Exports to the US
v. References 

XI. US Softwood Lumber Market Supply Curve Analysis
a. Methodology and Key Variables
b. Log Price Forecasts
c. The 2016 Supply Curve
d. Base Case Supply Curve Analysis
e. Sensitivities – High Demand Scenario
f. Sensitivities – Low Demand Scenario
g. Sensitivities – Base Case Demand – Alternative Supply Scenario
h. Sensitivities – Base Case Demand – 23-year Fx
i. References

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
3 of 4

Loading
LOADING...

4 of 4
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Chile
  • Finland
  • Germany
  • Latvia
  • New Zealand
  • Russia
  • Sweden
  • US
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Adroll
adroll