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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 2nd Quarter

  • ID: 4771116
  • Country Profile
  • May 2021
  • Region: North Macedonia
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
Compared with The Economist Intelligence Unit's February 2021 assessment, the sovereign risk score has worsened by 1 point, to 54. The rating remains at B. Macroeconomic-related risks have diminished, but this has been more than offset by an increase in financing and liquidity risks. A rating upgrade in the next 18 months is likely.

The currency risk score has worsened by 1 point, to 50, and the rating remains at BB. A moderate increase in liquidity risks and risks related to low real interest rates, which we estimate to have turned negative, have been partly offset by an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. We expect the rating to remain unchanged over the next 18 months.

The banking sector risk score has worsened by 2 points, to 55, and the rating remains at B. The deterioration was mainly driven by a decrease in real interest rates, which we estimate to be negative. A rating upgrade over the next 18 months is likely.
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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 2nd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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