Compared with The Economist Intelligence Unit's February 2021 assessment, the sovereign risk score has worsened by 1 point, to 54. The rating remains at B. Macroeconomic-related risks have diminished, but this has been more than offset by an increase in financing and liquidity risks. A rating upgrade in the next 18 months is likely.
The currency risk score has worsened by 1 point, to 50, and the rating remains at BB. A moderate increase in liquidity risks and risks related to low real interest rates, which we estimate to have turned negative, have been partly offset by an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. We expect the rating to remain unchanged over the next 18 months.
The banking sector risk score has worsened by 2 points, to 55, and the rating remains at B. The deterioration was mainly driven by a decrease in real interest rates, which we estimate to be negative. A rating upgrade over the next 18 months is likely.
The currency risk score has worsened by 1 point, to 50, and the rating remains at BB. A moderate increase in liquidity risks and risks related to low real interest rates, which we estimate to have turned negative, have been partly offset by an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. We expect the rating to remain unchanged over the next 18 months.
The banking sector risk score has worsened by 2 points, to 55, and the rating remains at B. The deterioration was mainly driven by a decrease in real interest rates, which we estimate to be negative. A rating upgrade over the next 18 months is likely.
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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 2nd Quarter
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime
Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment
Country risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability
Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch
Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations
Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation
Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector
Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement
Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime
Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment
Country risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability
Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch
Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations
Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation
Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector
Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement
Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
