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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 2nd Quarter

  • ID: 4771116
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Macedonia
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The score has improved by 3 points, upgrading the rating to BB. The resolution of the name dispute with Greece improves North Macedonia's EU accession prospects. Economic growth recovered in 2018, and the government has improved fiscal transparency, and the sustainability of the pension and healthcare systems, supporting the rating upgrade. External debt is higher than the median for other BB-rated countries, but public debt is broadly in line with the BB-rated median.

The currency risk rating remains at BB and the score has improved by 2 points, to 41. Foreign-exchange reserve coverage of short-term debt is lower than the median for BB-rated countries, but gross financing coverage is adequate. The currency risk rating outlook is stable, as the denar does not appear overvalued. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a de facto peg to the euro to continue in 2019-20.

The banking sector risk rating remains at BB, but the score has improved by 3 points, to 45, reflecting an increase in banks' net foreign asset position. Non-performing loans fell to 5% of the total loan stock in 2018 and are fully provisioned. Capital-adequacy and liquidity measures indicate a banking system that is stable overall. The outlook is stable.
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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 2nd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Central scenario for 2019-23: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2019-23: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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