The publisher explores Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019-29.
Snapshot
Overview - Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical business has been reversing recent declines and will grow out to 2029.
Key themes - [1] Diabetes sales will peak in the early 2020s, as key patent expirations will only be partially offset by strong biosimilar growth [2] Oncology portfolio will be a growth driver through the forecast period [3] Eli Lilly will remain active in business development (Loxo Oncology, Dermira) to bolster development pipeline.
Model updates (3 August 2020)
Model updates (2 June 2020)
Model updates (28 February 2020)
Model updates (4 November 2019)
Model updates (16 July 2019)
Snapshot
Overview - Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical business has been reversing recent declines and will grow out to 2029.
Key themes - [1] Diabetes sales will peak in the early 2020s, as key patent expirations will only be partially offset by strong biosimilar growth [2] Oncology portfolio will be a growth driver through the forecast period [3] Eli Lilly will remain active in business development (Loxo Oncology, Dermira) to bolster development pipeline.
Model updates (3 August 2020)
- Verzenio forecast adjusted higher due to recent results of Phase III monarchE study in adjuvant breast cancer
- Retevmo forecast adjusted higher due to initial launch trends
- Reyvow forecast adjusted lower due to initial launch trends.
Model updates (2 June 2020)
- Trulicity forecast adjusted higher
- Jardiance royalties forecast adjusted lower due to amendment of agreement between Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly
- Trajenta royalties forecast adjusted lower due to amendment of agreement between Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly
- LY900014 forecast adjusted higher due to earlier-than-expected approval in Europe and Japan
- Olumiant forecast adjusted lower in the US
- Tyvyt forecast added.
Model updates (28 February 2020)
- Trulicity forecast adjusted due to sustained robust volume growth globally
- Jardiance royalties forecast adjusted higher due to sustained leadership in the SGLT-2 inhibitor class
- Taltz forecast adjusted higher due to strong prescription growth in both dermatology and rheumatology
- Verzenio forecast adjusted lower to better align with launch trajectory and trends in the CDK4/6 market
- LOXO-292 name changed to selpercatinib; forecast pulled forward due to earlier-than-expected regulatory filings
- LY3298176 name changed to tirzepatide
- Pegilodecakin forecast removed after failures of CYPRESS 1 and CYPRESS 2 in non-small cell lung cancer
- Tanezumab forecast added
- Lebrikizumab forecast added due to acquisition of Dermira
- Qbrexza forecast added due to acquisition of Dermira.
Model updates (4 November 2019)
- Trulicity forecast adjusted higher in 5EU and RoW due to strong volume performance
- Emgality forecast adjusted higher due to strong launch in the US, but lowered in 5EU and RoW due to slower-than-expected launches
- Alimta forecast adjusted lower due to less of a benefit from combination therapy with Keytruda in the US
- Verzenio forecast adjusted higher due to higher prices and demand in the US
- Jardiance forecast adjusted higher due to robust volume growth globally
- Olumiant forecast adjusted higher due to better performance in Europe
- Pegilodecakin forecast adjusted lower due to failure in pancreatic cancer
- Baqsimi forecast added.
Model updates (16 July 2019)
- Trulicity sales adjusted upwards due to continued growth of GLP-1 class and market share gains
- Humalog sales adjusted lower due to increased rebates and discounts, as well as launch of insulin lispro in the US
- Alimta sales adjusted lower due to lesser benefit from combination therapy with Keytruda in the US
- Cialis sales adjusted upwards due to less generic competition than anticipated in the Rest of World region
- Forteo sales adjusted lower due to upcoming biosimilar competition, and trajectory normalized after outsized growth in 2017
- Humulin sales adjusted lower due to increased rebates and discounts in the US
- Taltz sales adjusted lower due to normalization after rapid launch in 2018
- Cymbalta sales adjusted upwards due to better performance in Japan
- Lartruvo removed from forecast after withdrawal from market due to failure of Phase III ANNOUNCE trial
- Emgality sales adjusted lower due to slower-than-anticipated US launch
- LY900014 added
- Mirikizumab added
- Pegilodecakin added
- LY3298176 added
- LOXO-292 added.
Table of Contents
Company Background
Recent Earnings Review
Company Forecast
Company Profile
Clinical Trial Overview